ARM Options Are Pricing a $30 Move Into August 14 — Our Read Leans Higher, the Charts Say Lower

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The options market implies a $252–$313 range into the August 14 expiration; here's what's driving it, where the levels sit, and three defined-risk ways to trade it.

Published Saturday, August 8, 2026 · Data as of the 2026-08-07 close

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Quick answer

Item	Answer
Market bias	Bullish
Options-implied range (into Aug 14)	$252 – $313 (±10.8%)
Major support	$275 (max pain for the 6-day expiration; thin $280 put wall just above)
Major resistance	$300 (whole chain's heaviest call strike); $310 is the 6-day expiration's own call wall
Max pain (Aug 14)	$275
Dealer gamma regime (estimate)	Positive for the Aug 14 expiration — hedging there tends to dampen moves; the whole-chain flip level is estimated near $300, i.e. above the current price
Volatility condition	Falling — IV rank 52/100 · premium thin: options are priced about 22 vol points below the movement ARM has actually delivered (distorted by the July 29 earnings gap)
Technical check	Diverges (bearish on both the 3-day and 6-day models)
Best-fitting strategy	Long Aug 14 $285/$300 call spread, conditional on $275 holding
Analysis invalidated if	ARM closes below $275

1 · What matters today

ARM closed at $282.57 after an 18.6% five-day rip, and the options data has flipped hard to the bull side: call open interest grew by more than 13,000 contracts in a single session while put open interest shrank, and puts are now cheaper than equidistant calls by about 4.9 volatility points — the mirror image of the crash-protection bid that dominated in July. That combination of flows, skew and short-dated sentiment gives us a bullish read for the next six days. The options market is pricing a move of roughly ±$30 (±10.8%) into the August 14 expiration — that is the move straddle prices imply, and it's enormous. One level settles it: $275, the price where the most August 14 option value expires worthless, and the shelf both technical models call support. Both of those models, incidentally, lean lower this week — more on that clash below.

2 · What the options market is pricing

What changed this week

The last five sessions rewired this chain. The stock is up 18.6% over five trading days but still down 12.3% over twenty — and that tension is the story. Our short-term and longer-term trend reads are openly divergent: the past week's surge runs against a market that is still down double digits over two months, and the two are pointing different ways. Positioning has followed the short-term move, not the longer one. Put open interest relative to calls fell to 0.80 — for every call contract held open there are now 0.80 puts, versus roughly 1.05 on average across the past fourteen sessions. Put/call volume came in at 0.59 against a 14-day average of 0.85. And volatility is bleeding out fast: at-the-money implied volatility is 76.9%, down 8.0% in a day and 11.2% over five sessions, against a 30-day average of 103% — the pace of that compression is unusual even for a name as volatile as ARM.

The single biggest change in held positions among still-live contracts: the August 14 $310 calls added 1,195 contracts of open interest overnight to 3,008 — traders paying for upside a full 10% above spot inside a six-day window. (Into Friday's expiration, the settled August 7 $310 calls added 722 contracts and the $300 calls traded 4,404 — history now, but the same upside-chasing footprint.) Our leading read of flows and skew — the one that deliberately excludes price and IV trend — swung from deeply negative in late July to strongly positive on Thursday, its firmest bullish configuration in months.

Expected move

Into August 14, the options market is pricing roughly ±10.8%, or about ±$30.50 around the $282.67 chain-snapshot price — a $252 to $313 band in six days. That is what straddle pricing implies, not a forecast.

Expiration	Implied move	Range around $282.67
Aug 14 (7 DTE)	±10.8%	$252.2 – $313.2
Aug 21 (14 DTE)	±15.0%	$240.4 – $324.9
Aug 28 (21 DTE)	±18.6%	$230.1 – $335.2
Sep 4 (28 DTE)	±21.3%	$222.3 – $343.0

The rungs step up smoothly with time — there is no hump or kink anywhere in the ladder, which tells you the chain is not bracing for a dated event inside the next month. It is simply pricing a stock that has been moving like this all summer.

Volatility

At-the-money implied volatility sits at 76.9% — the market's estimate of how much ARM will move, baked into option prices. IV rank is 52/100, meaning today's level is higher than 52% of the past year's readings and cheaper than the other 48%; the percentile measure (71) says a bigger share of days sat strictly below today than the rank alone implies. Direction is unambiguously down: −8.0% on the day, −11.2% over five sessions, −22.5% over thirty, and well under both the 30-day (103%) and 90-day (90%) averages. IV rank averaged 77 across the past fourteen sessions and 60 across the past three, so the compression is recent and rapid. The front-month term-structure read is unavailable today — the nearest expiration was a same-day expiry, which is an expiry-day artifact, not missing data. Interpolated 60-day IV is 76.6%, essentially level with the front of the curve.

Realized movement, meanwhile, is still hot: the 5-day realized-vol pace is running about 21% above ARM's own 20-day pace, an above-norm reading for this stock, and Friday's session gapped up 4.3% to $298.96 before closing back at $282.57.

Premium rich or cheap. The volatility risk premium — the gap between how much movement options are priced for and how much ARM has actually delivered — is running at about minus 22 vol points: implied volatility of 77% against 20-day realized volatility of 99%. When that gap is positive, option sellers have been collecting more than realized movement cost them; here it is deeply negative, and it sits richer than only about 30% of this stock's own recent readings. Normally that combination — IV rank 52 and a 30th-percentile premium over delivered movement — argues for owning premium rather than selling it. One caveat matters more than the number: the July 29 earnings gap sits inside the 20-day realized-volatility window, which mechanically inflates the realized leg, and the sign flip in this measure between August 3 and August 5 is that gap entering the window as IV collapsed — a calendar effect, not a trader signal. So treat "options look cheap" as a mild tilt toward debit structures, not an edge. The implied-versus-delivered reading is also modestly below its own norm, which is consistent with that caution.

Skew and sentiment

Skew is the cleanest single tell in this file. Puts and calls the same distance from the stock price don't cost the same — when puts are pricier, traders are paying up for crash protection. Right now the opposite is true: 25-delta puts mark at 75.4% implied volatility versus 80.3% for 25-delta calls, so puts are running 4.9 vol points under calls, against a 60-day median of just 0.5 points under. Two weeks ago this measure averaged 1.6 points under; three sessions ago, 5.8. Put skew has bled off by roughly 4.7 points in five sessions. Translation: traders have stopped paying a premium for downside insurance and started paying up for upside — a call-side chase, and by this stock's own history an unusually pronounced one.

Short-dated sentiment agrees, with a caveat. Our read of the 0–7 day bucket is only mildly positive (its seven-day average is stronger than today's print), while the 8–30 day bucket is solidly positive, driven by 25-delta risk reversals running about 6 vol points richer on the call side than their 51-day baseline, plus call-side open interest building across four expirations. The one-phrase summary of the whole curve: broadly bullish, with no single tenor dominating. On the flow side, seven call contracts cleared the peer-relative unusual bar versus three puts — call-side sweeps dominating at a rate that is well above this name's own norm.

The key levels map

Level	Price	Why it matters
50-day moving average	$322	12.3% overhead; the line this bounce has not come close to reclaiming
Top of implied range (Aug 14)	$313	1σ upper bound of what options price for the week
Call wall — Aug 14 expiration	$310	Biggest pile of open calls for the target expiration (3,008), and the strike that added the most open interest overnight
Swing resistance	$304 / $298	Recent pivot cluster; Friday's high-water open was $298.96
Whole chain's heaviest call strike	$300	20,296 calls open across all expirations, the largest gamma concentration in the chain, and the estimated dealer gamma-flip level (an estimate, not observed inventory)
Swing resistance	$292	Nearest pivot overhead; also the technical models' upper boundary
Last close	$282.57	Reference — chain-snapshot price $282.67
Put wall — Aug 14 expiration	$280	Largest put open interest for the target expiration, but only 199 contracts — a wall in name only
Max pain (Aug 14) / structural shelf	$275	Where the most August 14 option value expires worthless; also the rising short-term average both technical models call support
Gamma cluster	$270	One of the five heaviest total-gamma strikes chain-wide; 4,752 puts open
20-day moving average	$268	Price sits 5.6% above it — the bounce's first real structural test
Bottom of implied range (Aug 14)	$252	1σ lower bound for the week
Gamma / put cluster	$250	7,868 puts open chain-wide; heavy longer-dated hedging strike
Swing support	$243	Nearest pivot support from the July decline
Whole chain's put wall	$200	8,863 puts open — far-dated crash protection, not this week's business

Note the disagreement worth flagging: the whole chain's heaviest call strike is $300, but the August 14 expiration's own call wall is $310. For this week, $310 is the strike with real overhead open interest; $300 is the bigger structural magnet across all expirations.

Positioning and unusual flow

On the dealer-hedging estimate: for the August 14 expiration alone, the rough estimate reads positive — market makers' hedging in that expiration tends to dampen moves rather than amplify them. Across the whole chain the same estimate puts the flip level near $300, which is above the current price, and spot sits unusually far below that estimated flip versus this stock's own history. Read those together carefully: near this week's strikes the hedging estimate is stabilizing, but the chain's centre of gravity sits overhead, and these are estimates built on an assumed dealer sign convention, not observed inventory.

Three live flow items stood out. First, the August 14 $300 calls: 911 contracts traded against 883 already open — more than one turn of the existing position in a day, about $549,000 of premium, and the most heavily traded line in the target expiration. Second, the August 14 $310 calls added 1,195 contracts of open interest, the largest single-contract build in the chain, on 404 contracts of volume — genuine new upside positioning rather than day-trading. Third, on the other side of the ledger, the November $220 puts traded 1,337 contracts against 1,367 open — roughly a full turn of a far-out-of-the-money downside hedge, a reminder that somebody is still paying for protection well beyond this window.

3 · Technical check

Both technical models we ran disagree with the options read, and they disagree in the same direction. The 3-day model (through August 11) is bearish, targeting $278.50 with a $273–$290 range, on a MACD bearish crossover, a widening negative histogram, and RSI cooling from 71 to 56 while price held its ground — momentum deteriorating faster than price. The 6-day model (through August 14, our target date) is also bearish, targeting $277.50 with a $271–$291.50 range, and adds the bigger-picture point: this bounce is happening well below the 50-day average at $322, inside a multi-week structure of lower highs.

Classification: Diverges. The direction contradicts our positioning read, and the magnitude gap is stark. The technical range for August 14 ($271–$291.50) sits entirely inside the options-implied range ($252–$313) — the chart model is pricing a quiet, mean-reverting week inside a chain that is pricing a violent one. Both models name the same invalidation, and it happens to be the same level our options map flags: a decisive break of roughly $275 confirms the bearish case; a reclaim of $290–$293 kills it.

Model vs. Market: The options market implies $252–$313 into August 14; the 6-day technical model targets $277.50 inside a $271–$291.50 band. When option prices imply four times the range a chart model expects, the honest read is that the market is paying for a resolution the chart doesn't see yet — and the $275/$292 boundary is where that argument gets settled.

How this shaped strikes below: the divergence is why the bullish structure's short strike sits at the whole chain's heaviest call strike ($300) rather than out at $310, why the bearish alternative is shaded toward the technical target of $277.50, and why every structure here is defined-risk and short-dated rather than a naked directional bet.

Full technical write-ups: 3-day report → · 6-day report →

4 · Three ways the next six days can go

If ARM pushes above the Aug 14 call wall ($310): that is the strike where this expiration's overhead open interest is concentrated, and heavy call open interest tends to slow rallies as it is hedged into. Getting there requires clearing $300 first, where the chain's largest gamma concentration and 20,296 open calls sit. Above $313 — the top of what options price for the week — positioning thins out quickly, with nothing structural until the $322 fifty-day average.

If ARM drifts between $275 and $300: this is the pin case, and it is where the positioning data points by default. Max pain for August 14 is $275, the estimated hedging regime for that expiration is the dampening kind, and the $280 put wall is so thin (199 contracts) that it offers no real barrier — expiring open interest exerts a gentle downward pull toward $275 while call-side flow leans against it. A week that closes in the mid-$280s would satisfy both the pin and the technicals.

If ARM breaks below $275: the shelf that both technical models and the max-pain calculation identify gives way, and the next structural stop is the $270 gamma cluster, then the 20-day average at $268. Worth noting: one rough estimate places the dealer gamma flip level at $300, above the current price, and spot is sitting unusually far below that estimate for this name — on the fragile side of it, where the same estimate says market-maker hedging amplifies selling rather than cushioning it. The bottom of the implied range is $252.

5 · Three defined-risk structures

Prices are end-of-day midpoints as of 2026-08-07. All structures are hypothetical. Verify live prices before trading — these will be stale by the open.

If you lean bullish: long Aug 14 $285/$300 call spread

• Trade: Buy the Aug 14 $285 call, sell the Aug 14 $300 call. You pay a net debit and you're betting ARM finishes above your break-even.
• Debit: $5.05 ($505) · Max profit: $9.95 ($995) · Max loss: $505 · Break-even: $290.05
• Why it fits: This is the bullish expression that buys the cheap side of the volatility equation rather than selling it — options are priced about 22 vol points below what ARM has actually delivered, IV rank has fallen from a 14-day average of 77 to 52, and skew has flipped to favour calls by 4.9 vol points. The short strike sits at $300, the whole chain's heaviest call strike and the estimated gamma flip level, so you are selling exactly the strike where a rally is most likely to stall.
• Makes sense only if: you believe the flow story (call OI building, put OI thinning, put skew collapsing) over the two bearish chart models — and you accept a break-even 2.6% above spot in six days.
• Invalidated if: ARM closes below $275.
• Managing it: The short-term uptrend is fighting a two-month downtrend, which argues for taking profits early rather than holding for the full $15 width — close at 50–60% of max value, and exit by Wednesday August 12 if price is still below $285 rather than paying full theta into Friday.
• Liquidity note: The $285 calls traded 75¢ wide (about 7% of mid) on 336 contracts; the $300 calls traded 45¢ wide on 911 contracts and $549,000 of premium — the most liquid line in this expiration. Both spreads are slightly wider than the 5% comfort bar, so work the mid with limits; paying both offers costs you roughly a quarter of the max profit.
• Analyze this position →

If you expect the range to hold: Aug 14 $255/$262.50/$305/$312.50 iron condor

• Trade: Sell the $262.50 put and buy the $255 put; sell the $305 call and buy the $312.50 call, all Aug 14. You collect a credit up front and keep it if ARM finishes between the short strikes.
• Credit: $2.57 ($257) · Max profit: $257 · Max loss: $493 · Break-evens: $259.93 and $307.57
• Why it fits: The short strikes bracket everything the levels map cares about — $305 sits just under the Aug 14 call wall, $262.50 sits well below max pain, and both technical models expect a week entirely inside $271–$291.50. The estimated hedging regime for this expiration is the dampening kind, which is the environment a condor wants.
• Health warning: you are selling premium that has not been rich lately — implied volatility is running roughly 22 points below delivered movement, so this trade collects less than ARM's recent movement would have cost a seller. That gap is distorted by the July 29 earnings gap sitting inside the realized-vol window, but it is not a green light either.
• Makes sense only if: you genuinely think the ±10.8% priced move is too wide. Note the short strikes sit inside that band (deltas of roughly 0.22 and 0.26), so this is an aggressive condor by construction, not a safe one.
• Invalidated if: ARM closes outside $262.50–$305 — at that point manage the tested side rather than hoping.
• Managing it: Take profit at ~50% of the credit; close the whole structure if either short strike trades, and do not carry it into Friday's final session.
• Liquidity note: This is the weak point. The $262.50 puts quoted $1.10 wide (about 28% of mid) and the $312.50 calls $1.30 wide (about 36%); the $255 puts are 29¢ wide and the $305 calls 75¢. Four wide legs can eat most of a $2.57 credit — leg in with limits or skip it.
• Analyze this position →

If you lean bearish: long Aug 14 $285/$275 put spread

• Trade: Buy the Aug 14 $285 put, sell the Aug 14 $275 put. You pay a debit and profit as ARM falls toward $275.
• Debit: $4.70 ($470) · Max profit: $5.30 ($530) · Max loss: $470 · Break-even: $280.30
• Why it fits: This is the structure that sides with the charts against our own positioning read. It is shaded directly at the 6-day technical target of $277.50, its lower strike sits at the August 14 max-pain level, and — like the bullish spread — it buys volatility that is priced below what ARM has been delivering. It is also the cheapest way to express the two-month downtrend that the last five sessions have been fighting.
• Makes sense only if: you weight the MACD rollover and fading trend strength above the call-side flow, and you're comfortable that the options data leans the other way.
• Invalidated if: ARM closes above $292 — the pivot both technical models name as the level that kills the bearish case.
• Managing it: Max value requires a close at or below $275; take 60–70% and go, and exit by August 12 if price is still holding above $285.
• Liquidity note: The $285 puts traded $1.10 wide (about 8% of mid) on 136 contracts and the $275 puts $1.00 wide (about 12%) on 230 contracts and $193,000 of premium — usable, but the round-trip spread cost is a real fraction of a $5.30 max profit.
• Analyze this position →

If none of these: no trade

There is a strong case for sitting this one out. ARM has delivered 20-day realized volatility near 99% annualized and has gapped 4.3%, 6.0% and 14.7% in the last two weeks alone; a six-day spread with $5 of width can be blown clean through either strike overnight, and every structure above has a break-even inside the daily gap distribution. The premium that looks cheap on a volatility-risk-premium basis is cheap partly for a mechanical reason — the July 29 earnings gap is still inflating the realized leg — so the "buy volatility" edge is thinner than the raw number suggests. Add that our bullish positioning read is fighting two bearish chart models and a two-month downtrend, and the honest conclusion is that the highest-conviction observation this week is a level ($275), not a trade. Waiting for a close through $275 or a reclaim of $292 and then trading the resolved side costs nothing but patience.

6 · Quick FAQ

What is ARM's expected move this week? About ±$30.50, or ±10.8%, into the August 14 expiration — a $252 to $313 band around the $282.67 chain-snapshot price, derived from what straddles cost as of the August 7 close.

Is ARM expected to go up or down over the next six days? Options positioning as of August 7 leans bullish — call open interest is building while put open interest thins, and puts have gone from a crash-protection premium to trading 4.9 vol points under calls — but that is a read of what traders have done, not a forecast. Both of our technical models lean the other way, targeting roughly $277–$278. The actionable map is the $252–$313 implied range with $275 as support and $300/$310 overhead.

Are ARM options expensive right now? Two lenses. IV rank of 52/100 says option prices are higher than 52% of the past year's readings — middling for this name. On top of that, they're running about 22 vol points below the movement ARM has actually delivered over the past month, richer than only about 30% of this stock's own recent readings. That normally favours owning premium rather than selling it, but the July 29 earnings gap is inflating the realized comparison, so treat it as a tilt rather than an edge.

Where is ARM's biggest options support and resistance? For the August 14 expiration: the put wall is $280 but holds only 199 contracts, so the real downside reference is the $275 max-pain level; the call wall is $310 with 3,008 contracts. Across the whole chain, the heaviest call strike is $300 (20,296 contracts) and the put wall is $200 (8,863).

What invalidates this week's read? A close below $275.

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Methodology & disclosures. Data: end-of-day options-chain snapshot for ARM, 2026-08-07, generated 2026-08-08T12:41:46.895Z. Prices shown are midpoints and will differ from live markets. Momentum/positioning scores and volatility-premium comparisons are descriptive measurements of past option flow and past price movement — not investment advice, signals, forecasts, or guarantees. Earnings dates and reported results are from the data provider's earnings feed as of 2026-08-08T12:41:46.895Z; report dates can change. All trade structures are hypothetical. Every structure shown has a defined maximum loss; you can lose the entire max-loss amount. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.