ASTS Options Price a ±$13 Move by August 14 — The Chart Model Sees $2.60

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The options market implies a $58.95–$84.86 range into the August 14 expiration; here's what's driving that enormous band and three defined-risk ways to trade it.

Published Saturday, August 8, 2026 · Data as of the 2026-08-07 close

Explore the live ASTS options data in the Detailed Options Analyzer →

Quick answer

Item	Answer
Market bias	Neutral with a bullish tilt
Options-implied range (into Aug 14)	$58.95 – $84.86 (±18.0%)
Major support	$70 (Aug 14 put wall); $67.50 swing support beneath it
Major resistance	$75 (Aug 14 call wall)
Max pain (Aug 14)	$68
Dealer gamma regime (estimate)	Positive — hedging tends to dampen moves; pivot estimate ≈ $82
Volatility condition	Falling — IV rank 56/100 · premium thin: options priced about 9 vol points below delivered movement, though that reading is distorted by the Aug 10 report
Next earnings	Monday, August 10 (after close) — before the August 14 expiration
Technical check	Confirms direction, disputes magnitude (bullish, 3-day and 6-day)
Best-fitting strategy	Aug 14 $70/$75 bull call spread (defined debit, earnings exposure disclosed)
Analysis invalidated if	ASTS closes below $67.50

1 · What matters today

ASTS closed Friday at $71.94 after a 21.9% five-day run off the late-July lows. Our read of the options flow lands at neutral with a bullish tilt — the leading positioning score and the flow momentum both lean higher, but the way puts are priced against calls leans the other way, so the arithmetic lands close to the middle. The number that matters most is the size of the band: options expiring August 14 are pricing a ±18% move — the move the options market is pricing in, derived from what straddles cost — which is $58.95 to $84.86. That is because ASTS reports earnings after the close on Monday, August 10, and August 14 is the first expiration on the other side of it. The two levels that frame the week are the $70 put wall and the $75 call wall. Both technical models we ran are bullish but expect a far smaller move than the options do. A close below $67.50 kills this read.

2 · What the options market is pricing

What changed this week

Money moved to the call side, fast. Put/call volume came in at 0.35 — for every put contract traded there were roughly three calls — against a 14-day average of 0.49 and a 7-day average of 0.44. Open interest tells the same story: call open interest grew by 32,633 contracts day over day versus just 2,936 on the put side, and the put/call open-interest ratio slid to 0.53 from a 14-day average of 0.62. Total option volume ran 1.32× its 20-day average, so this was a real reallocation, not a quiet tape. Meanwhile at-the-money implied volatility — the market's estimate of how much ASTS will move, baked into option prices — fell 7.0% over five days even as the stock ran 21.9%, and now sits at 104.9%, below both its 30-day average (108.9%) and its 90-day average (109.8%).

The horizons disagree, and that tension is the story. The past week's 21.9% pop runs against a stock that is down 2.0% over 20 sessions and down 39.9% over roughly 50 — near-term flow and the bigger trend are pointing in opposite directions. Price is 16.0% above its 20-day moving average but still 7.3% below the 50-day and 12.3% below the 200-day. Treat this as a recovery inside a larger downtrend until proven otherwise.

Expected move

Into August 14, the options market is pricing roughly ±$12.96 around the $71.905 chain-snapshot price — a $26-wide band. Here is the ladder:

Expiration	Implied move	Range around $71.91
Aug 14 (7 DTE)	±18.0%	$58.95 – $84.86
Aug 21 (14 DTE)	±21.6%	$56.41 – $87.40
Aug 28 (21 DTE)	±24.1%	$54.59 – $89.22

The dollar ranges widen with time, as they always do — but the underlying implied volatility runs the other way: 130.1% at August 14, 110.1% at August 21, 100.4% at August 28. That inversion is the earnings hump. The nearest expiration has to price one overnight gap without diluting it across additional weeks, so it carries the richest volatility on the board.

Volatility

ATM implied volatility is 104.9% with an IV rank of 56/100 — meaning today's level is cheaper than 44% of the past year's readings, squarely mid-range for this name. It is up 8.1% over 30 days but down 7.0% over five, and the 52-week percentile sits at 48. Front-month term structure is unavailable today (the chain's nearest expiration had already settled), so we're reading the curve directly off the per-expiration table above instead.

Two "vs its own norm" observations, meaning compared against this stock's own recent history rather than the broader market: realized volatility over the past 20 days is 113.8% annualized, which sounds enormous but is actually below this stock's own recent norm; and the 5-day-versus-20-day realized ratio at 0.80 says the last week's movement has been decelerating relative to its own month, even during the rally. Separately, the pace of new call open interest is running well above its norm for ASTS.

Premium rich or cheap. The gap between how much movement options are priced for and how much ASTS has actually delivered — the volatility risk premium — is currently about negative 8.9 vol points. In plain terms, option sellers have been collecting less than realized movement has cost them. That reading sits at the 40th percentile versus this stock's own recent history, so it is thin but not extreme. The path matters too: it was positive 18.6 points as recently as July 28 and has fallen every session since, as the stock's violent late-July/early-August swings pulled realized volatility up while implied volatility drifted down. The honest caveat: with earnings two days out, some of the front-week implied volatility is the market pre-pricing the August 10 report for a real scheduled reason, so neither "rich" nor "cheap" is a clean edge here. That argues for owning defined risk rather than harvesting premium into a binary event.

Earnings on the calendar

ASTS reports after the close on Monday, August 10 — four sessions before the August 14 expiration, and there is no expiration between now and then. Every tradeable contract on the board spans the report. That is precisely why the front rung's implied volatility (130.1%) sits about 20 points above August 21 and 30 above August 28. Consensus calls for a loss of $0.28 per share; the last four reported quarters each came in below their estimates in dollar terms, most recently a $0.66 loss against an expected $0.20 loss in May.

Skew and sentiment

Skew measures the fact that puts and calls the same distance from the stock price don't cost the same. For ASTS, 25-delta calls are priced about 5.3 vol points above 25-delta puts (110.6% versus 105.3%) — unusual for most stocks, and a long-standing feature of this one. But the 60-day norm is 8.9 points of call richness, so relative to its own history the curve has steepened toward puts: traders have been paying up for downside protection at the margin, and that reading is stretched versus its own norm. It is the single input pulling hardest against the bullish tilt in our composite.

Sentiment in short-dated options is mildly split. The 0–7 day bucket reads slightly negative (−9), the 7–30 day bucket slightly positive (+9), and the 60–120 day bucket clearly positive (+39) — a "bullish recovery" profile where conviction is being built further out the curve than in the front week. The 7-day averages are more uniformly constructive, so the front-week softness is a one-day wobble rather than a turn.

The key levels map

Level	Price	Why it matters
Heaviest call strike, whole chain	$100	40,540 contracts across all expirations — far above the week's action; the Aug 14 expiration's own wall is much closer
Top of options-implied range	$84.86	+18% — the upper 1σ rail into Aug 14
Gamma pivot (estimate)	≈$82	One rough estimate places the hedging pivot here; spot sits further below it than is typical for this name
200-day / 100-day moving averages	$81.98 / $81.62	Structural overhead; price is 12% below
50-day moving average	$77.57	The 6-day technical model's stretch target zone
Call wall (Aug 14)	$75	Heaviest call open interest at this expiration (2,006) — the strike with the biggest pile of open calls, which often acts as a magnet or barrier
Swing resistance	$73.50	Nearest heuristic pivot cluster; also the technical models' breakout trigger
Friday's close	$71.94	Reference
Put wall (Aug 14)	$70	Heaviest put open interest at this expiration (1,407); also a top-five gamma strike chain-wide
Max pain (Aug 14)	$68	The price where the most option value would expire worthless — expirations sometimes gravitate toward it
Swing support	$67.49	Nearest heuristic support cluster; the invalidation zone
Gamma cluster	$65	Second-largest gamma-by-strike total chain-wide (22,692 puts, 19,254 calls open)
20-day moving average	$62.02	Rising fast; the rally's dynamic floor
Bottom of options-implied range	$58.95	−18% — the lower 1σ rail into Aug 14
Heaviest put strike, whole chain	$55	22,736 contracts, concentrated in later expirations — not this week's level

Note the disagreement: the whole chain's heaviest call and put strikes are $100 and $55, but those sit in September and later expirations. For the six days this article covers, the levels that bind are the August 14 expiration's own walls — $75 above, $70 below.

Positioning and unusual flow

The dealer-gamma reading is an estimate, not observed inventory: for the August 14 expiration it comes out positive, the regime in which market-maker hedging tends to dampen moves rather than amplify them, and the aggregate across all expirations reads the same way. The estimate's own pivot sits near $82, above the current price, and spot is further below that pivot than is typical for ASTS — one reason to treat the "dampening" label loosely rather than as a promise of calm, particularly across an earnings gap.

Three flow items stand out. The single biggest money print of the day was 3,854 contracts in the November 20 $75 calls, about $5.45 million of premium — a long-dated, above-spot call position, not a week-of-earnings punt. Closer in, the August 14 $75 calls traded 3,631 contracts against 2,006 open, adding 392 of open interest and roughly $1.37 million of premium: that is traders building directly into the week's call wall. On the other side, a cluster of September 11 puts between $63 and $69 traded at four-to-eleven times their open interest — small in dollars, but unmistakably fresh downside protection being laid on beyond the report.

3 · Technical check

Both technical reads are bullish, and both land inside the options-implied band — so the direction confirms our tilt while the magnitude disputes it sharply. The 3-day model targets $73.20 by August 11 with a $69.30–$74.80 range; the 6-day model targets $74.50 by August 14 with a $69.00–$76.00 range. The strongest supporting evidence is trend quality rather than momentum extremes: ADX at 36.5 with +DI (29.4) well above −DI (14.9) describes a well-established uptrend, and Chaikin Money Flow at 0.251 has stayed positive throughout the entire bounce — unlike the failed mid-July rally attempts, when it rolled negative. The counterweight is structural: price remains below both the 50-day ($77.57) and 200-day ($81.98) moving averages, and MACD has just slipped below its signal line, hinting at a short-term pause near the upper Bollinger Band at $73.06.

Model vs. Market: The options market implies $58.95–$84.86 into August 14; the 6-day technical model targets $74.50 within a $69.00–$76.00 range. The chart model is pricing a $2.60 drift; the options market is pricing a $13 shock. The gap is almost entirely the August 10 earnings report — a scheduled event the chart cannot see and the chain cannot ignore. Whoever is wrong will be obvious by Tuesday's open.

Practically, the technical read shaded strike selection upward: the bullish structure below uses $75 as its short strike (the call wall, and just above both models' targets) rather than reaching for the outer expected-move rail.

Full technical write-ups: 3-day report → · 6-day report →

4 · Three ways the next six days can go

If ASTS pushes above the call wall ($75): the heaviest call open interest at this expiration sits right there, and clusters like that tend to slow rallies as hedging flows lean against them. A clean break leaves comparatively thin positioning overhead until the 50-day moving average at $77.57 and the estimated gamma pivot near $82 — the zone the 6-day technical model treats as its stretch target.

If ASTS drifts between the walls ($70–$75): this is the pin case. Max pain for August 14 sits at $68, just below the corridor, and expiring open interest tends to exert a mild pull toward it into Friday. The estimated positive gamma regime for this expiration is the mechanism — dealer hedging that sells strength and buys weakness. It is also the branch most likely to be overwritten entirely by Monday night's report.

If ASTS breaks below the put wall ($70): the next shelf is swing support at $67.49, then the heavy $65 gamma cluster, then the fast-rising 20-day moving average at $62.02 and the bottom of the implied range at $58.95. Spot currently sits about 14% below the estimated gamma pivot — a wider gap than is typical for this name — and the further price falls beneath that estimate, the less the "dampening" framing holds.

5 · Three defined-risk structures

Prices are end-of-day midpoints as of 2026-08-07. All structures are hypothetical. Verify live prices before trading — these will be stale by the open, and the August 10 report will reprice everything.

If you lean bullish: Aug 14 $70/$75 bull call spread

• Trade: Buy the Aug 14 $70 call, sell the Aug 14 $75 call. You pay a net debit up front; you are betting ASTS finishes above $72.10, and you keep everything above $75.
• Debit: $2.10 · Max profit: $2.90 · Max loss: $2.10 · Break-even: $72.10
• Why it fits: With the premium-versus-delivered-movement gap running negative, paying for optionality reads better than selling it here. The short strike is planted at the $75 call wall — the level positioning says will be hardest to clear — and both technical models target $73.20–$74.50, right inside the spread.
• Makes sense only if: you actually want long exposure across an earnings gap and are sized so a total loss is tolerable.
• Invalidated if: ASTS closes below $67.50.
• Earnings exposure: Spans the August 10 report. Premium is inflated for that reason, and the position can gap through either strike overnight — your maximum loss can be realized in a single session.
• Managing it: Take profits at roughly 70% of max value rather than holding to expiry; the near-term uptrend is fighting a still-negative 50-day trend, which argues for shorter holds and earlier exits. If Tuesday's open leaves the long strike deep out of the money, close it — there are only three sessions left to recover.
• Liquidity note: The $70 calls traded 25¢ wide (4.3% of mid) and the $75 calls 15¢ wide (4.0%), with the $75 line the most active contract at this expiration. Fills should be clean.
• Analyze this position →

If you expect the range to hold: Aug 14 $60/$65/$80/$83 iron condor

• Trade: Sell the $65 put and buy the $60 put; sell the $80 call and buy the $83 call. You collect a credit and keep it if ASTS finishes between $65 and $80.
• Credit: $1.76 · Max profit: $1.76 · Max loss: $3.24 · Break-evens: $63.24 and $81.76
• Why it fits: The short strikes sit inside the ±18% implied rails but outside both technical models' entire projected ranges, and outside the $70/$75 wall corridor where positioning is concentrated.
• Health warning: you're selling premium that hasn't been rich lately — the volatility risk premium is running roughly 9 vol points negative, meaning recent option sellers have been collecting less than the stock's actual movement cost them. This structure is the least attractive of the three on that basis alone.
• Makes sense only if: you believe the report is already fully priced and you can accept losing nearly twice your credit.
• Invalidated if: ASTS closes through either short strike ($65 or $80).
• Earnings exposure: Spans the August 10 report. The credit is inflated precisely because of that gap risk — this is a short-volatility bet on a binary event, which is the hardest version of this trade to win.
• Managing it: Close at ~50% of max credit; if you are still in it on Tuesday's open with price outside $67–$78, close rather than hope.
• Liquidity note: The $65 puts trade just 5¢ wide (2.5% of mid), but the $60 puts (10.7%) and the $83 calls (10.2%) are wider — expect to give up meaningful edge on the wings, and work the order as a package.
• Analyze this position →

If you lean bearish: Aug 14 $70/$65 put debit spread

• Trade: Buy the Aug 14 $70 put, sell the Aug 14 $65 put. You pay a debit and profit as ASTS falls below $68.
• Debit: $2.00 · Max profit: $3.00 · Max loss: $2.00 · Break-even: $68.00
• Why it fits: The break-even lands exactly on the August 14 max-pain strike, and the long strike sits at the put wall — the level where a break tends to open air beneath. It is also the cleaner expression of the steepening put skew than selling calls would be, given how thin the premium-versus-delivered-movement gap has become.
• Makes sense only if: you think the four-day, 22% run has front-run the report and mean reversion follows.
• Invalidated if: ASTS closes above $75.
• Earnings exposure: Spans the August 10 report and can gap through either strike overnight; you are paying inflated premium for that same gap.
• Managing it: This one fights a bullish short-term trend read on both technical horizons, so keep it small and take 60–70% of max value quickly rather than waiting on expiry mechanics.
• Liquidity note: The $70 puts traded 25¢ wide (6.3% of mid) on 813 contracts and the $65 puts 5¢ wide (2.5%) on 706 — both fine.
• Analyze this position →

If none of these: no trade

This is a genuinely reasonable week to stand aside. Every expiration on the board spans the August 10 report — there is no rung between now and then — so there is no way to express a six-day view on ASTS without accepting overnight gap risk. Meanwhile the premium you would collect for taking that risk is not historically generous: options are currently priced below what the stock has actually delivered over the past 20 sessions, so the usual "sell rich volatility into the event" argument does not apply here. And the composite bias is a tilt, not a conviction: the leading positioning read and flow momentum lean up, put skew leans down, and the arithmetic lands near neutral. If you want ASTS exposure without event risk, the September expirations let you re-enter after the report has been absorbed, at implied volatility that is already 30 points lower.

6 · Quick FAQ

What is ASTS's expected move this week? About ±$12.96 (±18.0%) into the August 14 expiration, or $58.95 to $84.86, per the options market's straddle pricing as of the August 7 close.

Is ASTS expected to go up or down over the next six days? Options positioning as of August 7 leans mildly bullish — call volume is running three-to-one over puts and new call open interest is building at an unusually fast pace for this name — but that's a read of what traders have done, not a forecast. The actionable map is the $58.95–$84.86 range and the $70/$75 wall corridor, with $68 max pain beneath.

Are ASTS options expensive right now? Two lenses. IV rank of 56/100 says option prices are higher than 56% of the past year's readings — mid-range. But on top of that, they are running about 9 vol points below the movement ASTS has actually delivered over the past 20 days, thinner than 60% of this stock's own recent readings. That combination favors owning premium over selling it — with the caveat that the August 10 report distorts both readings, so neither is a clean edge.

When is ASTS's next earnings report? Monday, August 10, after the close — before the August 14 expiration, which is why the front rung carries 130.1% implied volatility against 110.1% for August 21.

Where is ASTS's biggest options support and resistance? For the August 14 expiration: put wall at $70, call wall at $75. Across the whole chain the heaviest strikes are $55 and $100, but those sit in later expirations and are not this week's levels.

What invalidates this week's read? A close below $67.50.

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Methodology & disclosures. Data: end-of-day options-chain snapshot for ASTS, 2026-08-07, generated 2026-08-08T15:19:54.664Z. Prices shown are midpoints and will differ from live markets. Momentum/positioning scores and volatility-premium comparisons are descriptive measurements of past option flow and past price movement — not investment advice, signals, forecasts, or guarantees. Earnings dates and reported results are from the data provider's earnings feed as of 2026-08-08T15:19:54.664Z; report dates can change. All trade structures are hypothetical. Every structure shown has a defined maximum loss; you can lose the entire max-loss amount. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.