ASTS Options Are Pricing a $7 Move by August 28 — the Chart Model Sees Half That

The options market implies a $61.37–$75.93 range into the August 28 expiration; here's what's driving it and three defined-risk ways to trade the next six days.

Published Saturday, August 22, 2026 · Data as of the 2026-08-21 close

Explore the live ASTS options data in the Detailed Options Analyzer →

Quick answer

Item	Answer
Market bias	Neutral
Options-implied range (into Aug 28)	$61.37 – $75.93 (±10.6%)
Major support	$65 (heaviest near-money open-interest cluster; swing shelf at $64.63)
Major resistance	$70 (the Aug 28 expiration's call wall; 50-day average sits just above at $70.54)
Max pain (Aug 28)	$68
Dealer gamma regime (estimate)	Positive for the Aug 28 expiration — hedging there tends to dampen moves; the whole-chain flip estimate sits far above spot at ≈$90
Volatility condition	Falling — IV rank 8/100 · premium roughly fair: options priced about 1.5 vol points below delivered movement (distorted by the post-report window)
Technical check	Mixed — both technical reports are bullish (targets $70.10 at 3 days, $70.30 at 6 days) but bracket a far narrower range than options are pricing
Best-fitting strategy	Wide iron condor with rails outside the expected move — only if you accept a thin payoff
Analysis invalidated if	ASTS closes below $65

1 · What matters today

ASTS closed Friday at $68.65 after a violent week: down to $65.06 on Thursday, then a 5.5% snap-back on Friday. Our read of the options flow lands squarely neutral — the leading positioning signals, the short-dated sentiment read and the price momentum blend all point in different directions, and the arithmetic says so instead of hedging. The options market is pricing a ±10.6% move over the next six sessions, or roughly $7.28 either way, which is enormous for a six-day window. The level that matters most is $70: that's where the biggest pile of open call contracts for the August 28 expiration sits, and the 50-day average is right behind it at $70.54. Below, $65 is the shelf. Both technical reports lean bullish toward that $70 zone, but they expect far less movement than option prices imply. A close below $65 kills this read.

2 · What the options market is pricing

What changed this week

Price did most of the talking. ASTS is down 3.3% over the past five sessions but still up 22.1% over twenty — Thursday's $65.06 low was the third straight down day before Friday's 3.2% opening gap and 5.5% close higher. Implied volatility — the market's estimate of how much ASTS will move, baked into option prices — sits at 78.8%, up 4.4% on the day but down 21.5% over the past thirty sessions and far under its 30-day average of 102.9%. That collapse shows up in the IV rank, which reads 8/100 today against a 14-day average of 29.7.

Flow turned decisively call-heavy on Friday. Put volume ran at 0.37 per call contract versus a 7-day average of 0.52, and open call contracts grew by 34,436 against just 1,516 new puts day over day. Total option volume was 38% above its 20-day average. The single biggest change in contracts held open was an 8,176-contract build at the September 18 $180 call — but only nine contracts actually traded there, so read that as a repositioning block, not a fresh chase. The genuine new money went to the August 28 $80 call, where 3,509 contracts traded at a strike that had no open interest the day before and closed with 2,043.

The short- and long-term trend reads are pulling apart, and that tension is the honest headline. Over the past week the trend read is bearish (price −3.3%); over the past month it's firmly bullish (+22.1%); over the past two and a half months it's bearish again (−20.9%). Friday's bounce is a counter-trend move inside a broader downtrend that still has ASTS 48.7% below its 52-week high and below every moving average from the 50-day up.

Expected move

Into August 28, the options market is pricing a ±10.61% move — that's the move implied by what at-the-money straddles cost — or about $7.28 around Friday's $68.65 close.

Expiration	Implied move	Range around $68.65
Friday, August 28 (7 DTE)	±10.61%	$61.37 – $75.93
Friday, September 4 (14 DTE)	±16.28%	$57.47 – $79.83
Friday, September 11 (21 DTE)	±18.44%	$55.99 – $81.31
Friday, September 18 (28 DTE)	±21.94%	$53.59 – $83.71

The rungs scale almost exactly with the square root of time — 76.6% at-the-money implied volatility at the front rung versus 79.2% a month out — so there is no bump anywhere on the ladder. Comparing option prices across expiration dates, nothing on the calendar is being singled out.

Volatility

At-the-money implied volatility is 78.8%, and IV rank of 8/100 means today's reading is cheaper than 92% of the past year's. That is remarkable given the tape: this stock has swung ±5% or more on six separate days this month. Two "vs its own norm" readings stand out — compared against ASTS's own recent history, not the broader market. First, 20-day realized volatility of 80.2% is unusually low for this name, sitting well below its own recent norm despite looking wild in absolute terms. Second, the pace of IV compression is running unusually hot for ASTS — implied volatility is 23.5% under its 30-day average, an unusually large gap by this stock's standards. Comparing option prices across dates isn't possible today: Friday was an expiration day, so the front-month read is unavailable, an expiry-day artifact rather than missing data. The next scheduled earnings report is November 13, far beyond every expiration quoted here.

Premium rich or cheap. The volatility risk premium — the gap between how much movement options are priced for and how much ASTS has actually delivered — is currently negative by about 1.5 vol points. When it's positive, option sellers have been collecting more than realized movement cost them; here they'd be collecting slightly less. That gap sits at the 63rd percentile of this stock's own recent readings, meaning it's actually richer than about two-thirds of them, because the recent norm has been deeply negative. One caveat matters more than the number: the August 10 earnings report landed nine trading sessions ago, so the post-report move sits inside the 20-day realized-volatility window. That mechanically inflates the realized leg and drags the gap negative — this is not a "premium is cheap, buy it" signal, it's a calendar artifact. Net verdict: IV rank of 8/100 is a genuine argument against aggressive premium selling, but the delivered-movement comparison shouldn't be treated as an edge in either direction this week.

Skew and sentiment

Skew here runs the opposite way from most stocks. Puts and calls the same distance from the stock price don't cost the same — and in ASTS, it's the calls that are pricier. The 25-delta call carries 83.5% implied volatility against 76.7% on the equivalent put, a 6.8 vol point premium for upside. Traders pay up for the melt-up here, not for crash protection. That said, the call premium is a touch thinner than its 60-day norm of 7.8 points — a small step in the direction of more put demand, not less.

Sentiment in short-dated options — how the chain is positioned by expiration bucket — flipped hard. The 0–7 day bucket reads +43 (bullish) on Friday against −46 the day before, and the 7–30 day bucket reads +38 against −44. Every bucket now leans bullish. But the 7-day averages of those same buckets sit near zero, which is the honest framing: this is a one-day whipsaw off a violently oversold Thursday, not a settled regime. Put activity relative to calls tells the same story from a different angle — 0.37 puts per call is call-tilted versus a 0.52 norm, but open interest is barely changed at 0.52 puts per call against a 14-day average of 0.55. Traders traded calls on Friday; they haven't yet moved the standing book.

The key levels map

Level	Price	Why it matters
Whole chain's heaviest call strike	$100	44,292 contracts held open, mostly September/October lottery tickets — not this week's ceiling
Dealer gamma flip (estimate)	≈$90	One rough estimate places the pivot here; spot sits 31% beneath it, unusually far below by this stock's own norms
200-day average / swing resistance	$81.65 / $81.50	The larger downtrend ceiling
Top of the 6-day implied range	$75.93	1σ upper rail; the $75 strike is also where Friday's heaviest near-dated call flow sat (4,965 contracts traded)
Swing resistance	$73.79	Recent pivot cluster and the top of the five-week chop
50-day average	$70.54	Both technical reports name this as the resistance test
Call wall (Aug 28 expiration)	$70	2,181 contracts — the biggest pile of open calls for this week; also the single largest gamma strike chain-wide
Friday's close	$68.65	Spot, sitting between max pain and the call wall
Max pain (Aug 28)	$68	Where the most option value would expire worthless — expirations sometimes gravitate toward it
Swing support / technical zone	$67.49 – $67.05	The pivot the 6-day technical model calls first support
20-day average	$66.12	Price is 3.8% above it — the only major average it has reclaimed
Open-interest cluster / swing support	$65 / $64.63	42,000+ contracts held open at $65 chain-wide; the level that defines this read
Bottom of the 6-day implied range	$61.37	1σ lower rail
Whole chain's heaviest put strike	$55	25,328 contracts; note the Aug 28 expiration's own put wall is a thin $45 (2,247 contracts) — far out and mostly disaster insurance

The two scopes disagree in a way worth naming: this week's expiration has its call wall at $70 and its (thin) put wall at $45, while the whole chain combined puts the heaviest call strike at $100 and the heaviest put strike at $55. For the next six days, the $70 figure is the one that governs; the $100 strike is a September–November story.

Positioning and unusual flow

Market makers hedge the options they've sold, and for the August 28 expiration specifically, one rough estimate says they're positioned such that hedging tends to dampen moves rather than amplify them — a pinning influence into Friday. That same estimate places the chain-wide flip level near $90, well above spot, which by the identical rough model means the broader book sits on the amplifying side down here. Both are estimates built on an assumed convention, not observed dealer inventory; take the pinning read as the more relevant one for a six-day trade and the flip level as background.

Three non-expired flow items stand out, all in the August 28 expiration:

• $70 calls: 3,557 contracts traded against 2,181 held open, roughly $827,000 of premium — the busiest contract at the target expiration, and it sits exactly on the call wall.
• $75 calls: 4,965 contracts traded against 1,917 open, about $499,000 of premium, on the tightest quote in the expiration (3¢ wide). Traders are buying the upper rail of the expected move.
• $68 puts: 1,681 contracts traded while open interest fell by 575 — that's closing, not hedging. Downside protection was being unwound into Friday's bounce.

3 · Technical check

Both technical reports lean bullish, and both are fresh (dated August 22 against an August 21 options snapshot). The 3-day report targets $70.10 by August 25 with a $66.60–$70.90 range; the 6-day report targets $70.30 by August 28 with a $65.80–$71.90 range and names $70.54 (the 50-day average) as resistance and $67.05 as support. The decisive reads behind both: a strong and rising trend gauge with the directional indicators flipping to bullish control on August 21, and a momentum oscillator recovering from 26 to 59 in a single session. The caution flag both reports raise is a money-flow measure still showing net distribution over the trailing twenty bars — the bounce hasn't been confirmed by accumulation.

Classification: mixed. Direction diverges from the neutral options read; magnitude actively contradicts it. Both technical targets land comfortably inside the options-implied range, and the 6-day technical range ($65.80–$71.90, about ±$3) is less than half the width of what options price (±$7.28). The chart model expects a modest grind toward $70 resistance; the options market is paid for the possibility of another 10% week in either direction.

Model vs. Market: The options market implies $61.37–$75.93 into August 28; the 6-day technical model brackets $65.80–$71.90 with a $70.30 target. Either option premium is expensive relative to what actually happens next week, or the chart model is underestimating how fast this name still moves — and with 20-day realized volatility at 80%, the burden of proof sits with the narrow range.

How this adjusted strike selection: it didn't move the bias, but it did push the short call of the range structure below the technical resistance shelf isn't required — instead, the call side sits above $73.79 swing resistance so that a technically-driven grind to $70.50 leaves the position untouched.

Full technical write-ups: 3-day report → · 6-day report →

4 · Three ways the next six days can go

If ASTS pushes above the call wall ($70): The heaviest concentration of open calls for this expiration sits right there, and strikes with that much open interest often slow a rally as hedging flows lean against it. Above $70.54 (the 50-day), the next real shelf is $73.79, and then the $75 strike where Friday's biggest fresh call buying landed. Positioning thins between $70 and $75, so a clean break tends to travel faster than the grind up to it.

If ASTS drifts between the levels: This is the pin case. Max pain for August 28 sits at $68, twelve cents below Friday's close in practical terms, and the dealer-gamma estimate for that specific expiration reads positive — hedging flows there tend to pull price toward the strike concentration rather than push it away. A quiet week that closes somewhere between $66 and $71 is entirely consistent with how this chain is built.

If ASTS breaks below $65: The August 28 expiration has almost no put support built into it — its own heaviest put strike is a thin $45, which means there's no wall of open puts between here and the low $60s to slow anything. Spot also sits about 31% below the chain-wide gamma flip estimate near $90, unusually far below for this name, and by that rough estimate market-maker hedging on that side amplifies selling rather than cushioning it. The lower rail of the implied range is $61.37 and the next swing shelf is $63.58.

5 · Three defined-risk structures

Prices are end-of-day midpoints as of 2026-08-21. All structures are hypothetical. Verify live prices before trading — these will be stale by the open.

If you expect the range to hold: August 28 $57/$62/$75/$80 iron condor

• Trade: Sell the Aug 28 $62 put / buy the $57 put, and sell the Aug 28 $75 call / buy the $80 call
• Credit: $1.00 · Max profit: $100 · Max loss: $400 · Break-evens: $61.00 and $76.00
• Why it fits: A credit spread pays you now and wins if price stays away from your short strikes. Both break-evens sit outside the ±10.6% implied range, the max-pain strike ($68) is essentially at spot, and the gamma estimate for this specific expiration is the dampening kind. The short call at $75 sits above the $73.79 swing resistance, so a technically-driven push to the 50-day at $70.54 leaves it untouched.
• Makes sense only if: you accept a 1:4 payoff. Collecting $100 to risk $400 is what IV rank 8 buys you — and you're selling premium that hasn't been rich relative to what ASTS has actually delivered.
• Invalidated if: ASTS closes below $65 or above $73.79 — either one breaks the range case before your strikes are threatened.
• Managing it: close at ~50% of max credit; close the tested side rather than hoping if either short strike is touched; exit entirely by Wednesday, August 26 regardless, because the last two sessions are where gamma risk overwhelms the remaining premium.
• Liquidity note: the $75 calls quoted 3¢ wide (about 3% of mid — the tightest contract in the expiration, with ~$499,000 of premium traded), the $80 calls 3¢ wide. The put wings are worse: the $62 puts quoted 19¢ wide and the $57 puts 6¢ on a 14¢ mid. Work the mid and don't pay the offer on the wings.
• Analyze this position →

If you lean bullish: August 28 $65/$60 put credit spread

• Trade: Sell the Aug 28 $65 put / buy the $60 put
• Credit: $1.02 · Max profit: $102 · Max loss: $398 · Break-even: $63.98
• Why it fits: This is the cleanest expression of "the bounce holds." The $65 strike is the heaviest near-money open-interest cluster in the chain and sits on the swing shelf at $64.63; both technical reports put support above it at $67. You collect the premium and need nothing more than ASTS staying above $65 for six sessions.
• Makes sense only if: you're comfortable that call-tilted flow and a bullish short-dated sentiment read are one day old — and that the same measure read the other way on Thursday. You're also selling premium that hasn't been rich versus delivered movement.
• Invalidated if: ASTS closes below $65.
• Managing it: close at ~50% of max credit. With the past week's direction fighting the two-and-a-half-month downtrend, take profits early rather than holding for the last dime; if ASTS closes through $65, close it rather than hope.
• Liquidity note: the $65 puts quoted 35¢ wide on a $1.34 mid and the $60 puts 9¢ on a $0.32 mid — both well over the 5% slippage bar. Use limit orders at the mid and be willing to walk away; a bad fill eats a quarter of the credit.
• Analyze this position →

If you lean bearish: August 28 $67/$62 put debit spread

• Trade: Buy the Aug 28 $67 put / sell the $62 put
• Debit: $1.48 · Max profit: $352 · Max loss: $148 · Break-even: $65.52
• Why it fits: A debit spread costs you up front and pays if price falls through your long strike. This one is built around the same $65 line that invalidates the neutral read — its break-even sits just above it. With IV rank at 8/100, you're paying the lowest option prices in a year for the downside, and puts are the cheaper side of this skew (76.7% implied volatility versus 83.5% on the equivalent call). It's also the only structure here that profits from the acceleration case described above, where this expiration's near-total lack of put open interest gives the tape nothing to lean on.
• Makes sense only if: you think Friday's snap-back was a short-covering bounce inside a downtrend — price is still below the 50-, 100- and 200-day averages, and the money-flow measure both technical reports cite hasn't confirmed the rally.
• Invalidated if: ASTS closes above $70.54.
• Managing it: this is a six-day debit against 78.8% implied volatility — theta is brutal. Take profits into any break of $65 rather than holding for maximum value at expiry, and cut it if the position hasn't worked by Wednesday, August 26.
• Liquidity note: the $67 puts quoted 15¢ wide (about 7% of mid — acceptable), the $62 puts 19¢ on a $0.56 mid (about 34% — poor). Consider legging the short strike patiently or widening to the $63 puts, which quoted 9¢ wide.
• Analyze this position →

If none of these: no trade

There is a real case for standing aside here, and it isn't the usual one. Premium looks superficially attractive to sell — 78.8% implied volatility on a six-day option is a big number — but IV rank of 8/100 says it's cheaper than 92% of the past year's readings, and the comparison against delivered movement is contaminated by the August 10 report sitting inside the realized-volatility window. That means the two lenses that would normally tell you whether to collect or own premium are both saying "no edge." The condor above pays $100 to risk $400; the bull put spread pays $102 to risk $398. Neither payoff is generous, and both depend on a range read from signals that flipped sign in a single session. If you don't already have a view on whether this bounce sticks, the honest move is to wait for either a close above $70.54 or a close below $65 and trade the resolution instead of the coin-flip.

6 · Quick FAQ

What is ASTS's expected move this week? ±$7.28 (±10.6%) into the August 28 expiration, giving a $61.37–$75.93 range, per the options market's straddle pricing as of the August 21 close.

Is ASTS expected to go up or down over the next six days? Options positioning as of August 21 reads neutral — call-heavy flow and a bullish short-dated sentiment read are offset by a bearish price-momentum blend and spot sitting pinned right under the week's call wall — but that's a read of what traders have done, not a forecast. The actionable map is the $61.37–$75.93 range and the $65/$70 levels.

Are ASTS options expensive right now? IV rank of 8/100 says option prices are lower than 92% of the past year's readings. On top of that, they're running about 1.5 vol points below the movement ASTS has actually delivered over the past twenty sessions — though that gap is richer than roughly two-thirds of this stock's own recent readings. Treat the second number cautiously: the August 10 earnings report still sits inside the realized-volatility window and mechanically drags the comparison negative.

Where is ASTS's biggest options support and resistance? For the August 28 expiration, the call wall is $70 (2,181 contracts) and the expiration's own put wall is a thin, far-out $45; the more meaningful downside level is the $65 open-interest cluster. Across the whole chain, the heaviest call strike is $100 and the heaviest put strike is $55.

What invalidates this week's read? A close below $65.

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Methodology & disclosures. Data: end-of-day options-chain snapshot for ASTS, 2026-08-21, generated 2026-08-22T12:09:41Z. Prices shown are midpoints and will differ from live markets. Momentum/positioning scores and volatility-premium comparisons are descriptive measurements of past option flow and past price movement — not investment advice, signals, forecasts, or guarantees. Earnings dates and reported results are from the data provider's earnings feed as of 2026-08-22T12:09:41Z; report dates can change. All trade structures are hypothetical. Every structure shown has a defined maximum loss; you can lose the entire max-loss amount. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.