CRWV Options Are Pricing a ±$17 Move by Friday — Our Technical Model Sees ±$3.50

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The options market implies a $74.40–$107.90 range into the August 14 expiration; here's what's driving it, the levels that matter, and three defined-risk ways to trade it.

Published Saturday, August 8, 2026 · Data as of the 2026-08-07 close

Explore the live CRWV options data in the Detailed Options Analyzer →

Quick answer

Item	Answer
Market bias	Slightly bullish
Options-implied range (into Aug 14)	$74.40 – $107.90 (±18.4%)
Major support	$80 (Aug 14 put wall) — swing support at $85.37 comes first
Major resistance	$100 (Aug 14 call wall) — the $92.13/$93.65 moving-average shelf comes first
Max pain (Aug 14)	$84
Dealer gamma regime (estimate)	Positive — hedging tends to dampen moves; flip level ≈ $90
Volatility condition	Falling — IV rank 58/100 · premium thin: options priced ~30 vol pts below delivered movement (earnings-distorted)
Next earnings	Tuesday, August 11 (after close) — before the August 14 expiration
Technical check	Confirms direction (bullish, 3-day and 6-day) but sees a far smaller move
Best-fitting strategy	Aug 14 $90/$100 call debit spread
Analysis invalidated if	CRWV closes below $85

1 · What matters today

CRWV closed Friday at $90.67 after a violent round trip — down to $60.97 in late July, then up 27.7% in five sessions. Our read of options flow leans slightly bullish into the August 14 expiration: call open interest (contracts currently held open) is building while put open interest drains, and puts — which normally cost more than calls in this name — are now 2.7 vol points cheaper. The options market is pricing a ±18.4% move, roughly $74.40 to $107.90, in part because the company reports after the close on Tuesday, August 11, and that report sits inside this expiration. The level that matters most is $85: a close below it hands the tape back to the July downtrend. Two technical models agree on direction but see a much smaller move. Keep structures defined-risk and sized for a gap.

2 · What the options market is pricing

What changed this week

The single biggest change is on the put side of the book. The put/call open-interest ratio — how many puts are held open for each call — sits at 0.57, down from a 14-day average of 0.86 and a 7-day average of 0.68. In the most recent session alone, call open interest rose 10,318 contracts while put open interest fell 25,803: traders closed downside protection faster than they added anything else. Put/call volume tells the same story at 0.48 versus a 7-day average of 0.65 — for every put traded, roughly two calls changed hands.

Implied volatility (the market's estimate of how much CRWV will move, baked into option prices) fell 9.9% over five sessions to 100.4%, even as the stock rose 27.7%. That combination — price up, priced-in movement down — is the fingerprint of a relief move rather than a panic. And it comes with a caveat worth stating plainly: the past week's 27.7% pop runs against a market still down 14.0% over the past two and a half months. The near-term flow and the bigger trend are pointing in different directions, which is exactly why the structures below are short-dated rather than positional.

One retrospective note: into Friday's now-settled expiration, the $90 calls traded 15,662 contracts and the $85 puts shed 2,277 contracts of open interest — a book that unwound bearish and expired near the money.

Expected move

The expected move — the move the options market is pricing in, derived from what straddles cost — is ±18.4% into August 14, or about $16.75 either side of the $91.15 price the chain was snapped at. That is an enormous one-week band.

Expiration	Implied move	Range around $91.15
Fri, Aug 14	±18.4%	$74.40 – $107.90
Fri, Aug 21	±22.1%	$71.00 – $111.30
Fri, Aug 28	±25.5%	$67.90 – $114.40
Fri, Sep 18	±32.7%	$61.35 – $120.95

Notice how little the ladder widens between the first two rungs. If volatility were flat across dates, doubling the time from 7 to 14 days would push ±18.4% out to about ±26%; instead the second rung prices ±22.1%. The front week is carrying a lump of premium the later weeks are not — see the earnings note below.

Volatility

At-the-money implied volatility is 100.4%. IV rank is 58/100 — meaning today's IV is higher than 58% of the past year's readings and cheaper than 42% of them — with an IV percentile of 76. Direction is down in the short run (−3.0% on the day, −9.9% over five sessions) but up over the month (+14.7%), and IV now sits just under its 30-day average of 102.4% while remaining above its 90-day average of 95.3%. The front-month interpolation and term-structure read are unavailable today — Friday was an expiry day, and neither can be computed from a same-day-expiring contract.

What is unusual is how much the stock has actually been moving. Twenty-day realized volatility is 130.9%, a reading far above this stock's own recent norm — compared against CRWV's own history, not the broader market, this is one of the most violent stretches in its record. Ten-day realized vol is higher still at 158.6%.

Premium rich or cheap. The volatility risk premium — the gap between how much movement options are priced for and how much CRWV has actually delivered — is roughly negative 30 vol points. Option sellers have been collecting far less than realized movement has cost them, and that gap sits in the 1st percentile of this stock's own recent readings: thinner than 99% of them, and unusually depressed even by this name's standards. In a clean tape that would be a straightforward argument for owning premium rather than selling it. This is not a clean tape: with the August 11 report three days away, some of that arithmetic is mechanical — the realized number is inflated by July's collapse and August's recovery rolling through the 20-day window, so treat "cheap" as a caution against selling naked premium, not as a free edge.

Earnings on the calendar

CoreWeave reports after the close on Tuesday, August 11 — inside this window, before the August 14 expiration. The chain prices it openly: at-the-money IV is 132.9% for August 14 versus 112.7% for August 21 and 106.1% for August 28. Options expiring after a scheduled report price in the extra jump risk of that report, which is why the nearest rung is the most expensive on the board and why the expected-move ladder barely widens with time. Consensus is an expected loss of $1.67 per share; the last two reports came in below expectations (a $1.12 loss against an expected $0.91 loss in May).

Skew and sentiment

Skew — the fact that puts and calls the same distance from the stock price don't cost the same — has flipped. The 25-delta put trades at 101.1% implied volatility against 103.9% for the 25-delta call, so puts are running 2.7 vol points below calls, against a 60-day norm of puts running 1.8 points above. That is a 4.5-point swing versus this name's own baseline, and it is stretched unusually flat compared with its recent history. Translation: traders have stopped paying up for crash protection and are paying up for upside instead.

Sentiment in short-dated options confirms it. The 0–7 day bucket scores +24 and the 7–30 day bucket +39, both above their 7-day averages of +13 and +28; the overall regime reads as a bullish recovery with positioning building further out the curve rather than only in the front week. The pace at which put open interest has drained over the past five sessions is itself well above this stock's normal rate of change.

The key levels map

Level	Price	Why it matters
Top of implied range (Aug 14)	$107.90	Upper edge of the one-standard-deviation move the chain is pricing
Swing resistance	$103.05	Price-structure pivot cluster from the July breakdown
Call wall (Aug 14)	$100	Heaviest call open interest for this expiration (5,866) — and the whole chain's heaviest call strike (96,977)
Gamma / flow strike	$95	Top-five gamma strike chainwide; 2,691 Aug 14 calls traded here Friday
200-day average	$93.65	Price is 3.2% below it; the upper end of the technical resistance shelf
50-day average	$92.13	Price is 1.6% below it; both technical models name it as the first hurdle
Swing resistance	$91.02	Nearest overhead pivot from recent structure
Friday's close	$90.67	The official daily close; chain figures are anchored to $91.15
Gamma flip (estimate)	≈ $90	One rough estimate places the pivot here — below it, market-maker hedging tends to amplify rather than cushion moves
Technical support cluster	$88.50 – $89.16	Short-term moving-average/VWAP zone both TA reports use as their invalidation
Swing support	$85.37	The August 6 low zone; 1,045 puts open at the $85 strike for Aug 14
Max pain (Aug 14)	$84	The price where the most Aug 14 option value would expire worthless
Put wall (Aug 14)	$80	Heaviest put open interest for this expiration (1,115) — 2,807 traded Friday
20-day average	$78.14	Price sits 16.0% above it after the recovery
Bottom of implied range (Aug 14)	$74.40	Lower edge of the priced-in move

Worth flagging: the whole chain's put wall sits way down at $50 (26,211 contracts), a legacy of far-dated hedges. For this week's expiration the relevant floor is $80. When those two disagree, use the expiration you're actually trading.

Positioning and unusual flow

One rough estimate of dealer positioning has market makers net positive gamma both across the chain and specifically at the August 14 expiration — the regime in which hedging tends to dampen moves and pull price toward the heaviest strikes. The estimate places the flip level at about $90, which is barely 1.3% below Friday's close. That is a thin cushion: the calming effect this framework describes is only in force while price holds above it.

Three non-expired flow items stand out. First, the August 14 $102 calls: 1,788 contracts traded against just 199 open, roughly $531,000 of premium into a strike that did not exist earlier in the week — someone paying for a move well beyond the resistance shelf. Second, the August 14 $80 puts: 2,807 contracts traded against 1,115 open, about $623,000 of premium and the heaviest turnover in its peer group — real protection being bought through the report, right at the expiration's put wall. Third, the August 14 $90 calls topped the entire chain with roughly $2.2 million of premium traded, with the $95 line adding another $1.3 million. The dollars are running two-to-one in favor of calls, but the put buying at $80 is not noise.

3 · Technical check

Both technical reports are bullish and both were built off Friday's $90.67 close, so there is no data-date mismatch to reconcile. The 3-day read (target date August 11) targets $92.30 with an expected range of $87.80–$93.60; the 6-day read (target date August 14, matching our expiration) targets $93.50 with a range of $87.50–$94.50. The most decisive indicator cites: ADX at 29.2 with the positive directional line clearly dominant — a strong, established trend rather than a dead-cat bounce — and a MACD histogram that has been closing toward a bullish crossover for three consecutive sessions. The named obstacle in both write-ups is the same one our levels map shows: the 50-day at $92.13 and the 200-day at $93.65.

On direction, this confirms the options read. On magnitude, it flatly diverges. Both TA models invalidate on a close below roughly $89 — tighter than our $85 line, because their horizon assumes no gap risk. Ours has to survive Tuesday night.

Model vs. Market: The options market implies $74.40–$107.90 into August 14; the 6-day technical model targets $93.50 inside an $87.50–$94.50 band. The options chain is pricing a range roughly five times wider than the chart model, and the entire difference is one scheduled event on Tuesday evening. If the report lands without a gap, the chart's range is the better map; if it gaps, the chain's is.

Practically, the TA shifted one thing below: it anchored the long strike of the bullish spread at $90 rather than higher, so the position is already close to the money if the chart model is right and the move stays modest.

Full technical write-ups: 3-day report → · 6-day report →

4 · Three ways the next six days can go

If CRWV pushes above the call wall ($100): that strike carries the heaviest call open interest for this expiration and the heaviest on the entire chain. Positioning that dense overhead tends to slow rallies as it is approached, because hedging against those calls sells into strength. A clean break through it leaves thinner positioning until $105, where the next meaningful block of Aug 14 call interest sits.

If CRWV drifts between the walls ($80–$100): this is the case the gamma estimate favors. In a positive-gamma regime, hedging flows tend to lean against moves in both directions, and expiring open interest tends to exert a mild pull toward $84 — the Aug 14 max-pain strike, which sits about 7% below Friday's close. That combination argues for a stock that grinds rather than trends into Friday, with the moving-average shelf at $92–$94 as the ceiling and $85 as the floor.

If CRWV breaks below the put wall ($80): the cushion described above is conditional. Spot is sitting unusually close to the flip estimate near $90 for this name — a fraction over 1% above it — and below that pivot one rough estimate suggests market-maker hedging amplifies selling rather than absorbing it. A gap through $85 on Wednesday would run straight into that mechanic with the $80 put wall as the first place real open interest has to be defended, and the 20-day average down at $78.14 beneath it.

5 · Three defined-risk structures

Prices are end-of-day midpoints as of 2026-08-07. All structures are hypothetical. Verify live prices before trading — these will be stale by the open.

Every structure here expires August 14 and therefore spans the August 11 report. There is no way to take a position in this expiration without that exposure; the only question is whether the risk is defined, and in all three cases it is.

If you lean bullish: Aug 14 $90/$100 call debit spread

• Trade: Buy the Aug 14 $90 call, sell the Aug 14 $100 call
• Debit: $3.55 · Max profit: $645 · Max loss: $355 · Break-even: $93.55
• Why it fits: A debit structure is the right family when priced-in movement is running roughly 30 vol points below delivered movement — you're paying up in absolute terms (100%+ IV) but not relative to how this stock has actually been moving. The short leg sits exactly on the expiration's call wall, where positioning is heaviest and rallies tend to stall, so you're selling the strike the chain says is hardest to clear. Break-even at $93.55 sits a hair above the 6-day technical target of $93.50.
• Makes sense only if: you want upside exposure with a hard-capped loss and can accept that a flat-to-down report costs the full debit.
• Invalidated if: CRWV closes below $85.
• Earnings exposure: Spans the August 11 report — premium is inflated for that reason, and the position can gap through either strike overnight. The maximum loss is the $355 debit regardless.
• Managing it: Because the past week's strength is fighting a two-month downtrend, take profits early rather than holding for the full spread — close at roughly 60–70% of max value if it gets there before Friday, and don't add to a losing debit after the report.
• Liquidity note: The $90 calls traded 15¢ wide (about 2.2% of mark) on $2.2 million of premium; the $100 calls 5¢ wide on $1.3 million. Fills are easy on both legs.
• Analyze this position →

If you expect the range to hold: Aug 14 $76/$80/$100/$105 iron condor

• Trade: Sell the $80 put / buy the $76 put, and sell the $100 call / buy the $105 call, all Aug 14
• Credit: $2.00 · Max profit: $200 · Max loss: $300 · Break-evens: $78.00 and $102.00
• Why it fits: The short strikes are the expiration's own put and call walls — the two places positioning is thickest — and the estimated positive-gamma regime is the one in which hedging tends to hold price between them. Max pain at $84 sits comfortably inside the profit zone.
• Health warning: you're selling premium that has not been rich lately. The gap between priced-in and delivered movement is at the 1st percentile of this stock's own recent readings, and both short strikes sit inside the ±18.4% move the market is pricing. This structure is a bet that the chain is overpaying for the report; if it isn't, one side gets run over.
• Makes sense only if: you specifically believe the earnings reaction will be smaller than the ±18% priced in, and you accept a 1.5:1 risk-to-reward for that view.
• Invalidated if: CRWV closes outside $80–$100 at any point — at that stage the structure is defending, not working.
• Earnings exposure: Spans the August 11 report: premium is inflated for that reason, and price can gap straight through a short strike overnight with no chance to adjust.
• Managing it: Take it off at roughly 50% of max credit — most of the value decays in the 24 hours after the report. If Wednesday's open is outside either short strike, close rather than roll into a moving tape.
• Liquidity note: The $80 puts trade 14¢ wide and the $100 calls 5¢, but the $76 put wing is 15¢ wide on a $1.34 mark — roughly 11% — so expect to leak a little on the protective leg. Work the order.
• Analyze this position →

If you lean bearish: Aug 14 $88/$80 put debit spread

• Trade: Buy the Aug 14 $88 put, sell the Aug 14 $80 put
• Debit: $3.00 · Max profit: $500 · Max loss: $300 · Break-even: $85.00
• Why it fits: This is the structure that pays if the two-month downtrend reasserts itself. Its break-even is exactly our invalidation level, so it profits precisely in the world where the bullish read is wrong, and the short leg sits on the $80 put wall where the chain says downside positioning is concentrated. Puts are also the cheaper side of the skew right now — 2.7 vol points under calls, against a norm of 1.8 points above — so this is the leaning-into-the-cheap-side trade.
• Makes sense only if: you think the post-report reaction resolves lower and you want the loss capped at the debit rather than open-ended.
• Invalidated if: CRWV closes above $93.65 — clearing the 200-day average would confirm the recovery both technical models are chasing.
• Earnings exposure: Spans the August 11 report: premium is inflated for that reason, and price can gap through either strike overnight.
• Managing it: With the short-term trend pointing up against you, this is a fast trade — close on Wednesday's reaction rather than holding to Friday, and take 50–60% of max value if the gap hands it to you.
• Liquidity note: The $88 puts trade 25¢ wide (about 4.8% of mark) and the $80 puts 14¢ wide on over $600,000 of premium — acceptable, with the wider leg being the one you're buying.
• Analyze this position →

If none of these: no trade

Standing aside is entirely defensible here, and for a specific reason: every attractive expiration in this window spans a scheduled report, and the market is pricing an 18% move in six days. Premium that looks cheap against realized movement is cheap because this stock has been swinging 25% in a week — that is not an edge, it is a warning about position size. If you want CRWV exposure but not gap exposure, the honest answer is to wait until Wednesday's open, let the report resolve, and trade the August 21 or August 28 expirations against whatever levels survive. A defined-risk structure caps your loss; it doesn't make a coin-flip event a good bet.

6 · Quick FAQ

What is CRWV's expected move this week? ±18.4%, or roughly ±$16.75 — a $74.40 to $107.90 range into the August 14 expiration, per the options market's straddle pricing as of the August 7 close.

Is CRWV expected to go up or down over the next six days? Options positioning as of August 7 leans slightly bullish — call open interest is building while puts drain, and skew has flipped so that calls now cost more than puts — but that's a read of what traders have done, not a forecast. The actionable map is the $74.40–$107.90 range and the $80/$100 levels, with $85 as the line that changes the picture.

Are CRWV options expensive right now? Two lenses, two answers. IV rank 58/100 says option prices are higher than 58% of the past year's readings. But they're running about 30 vol points below the movement CRWV has actually delivered over the past month — thinner than 99% of this stock's own recent readings. The verdict leans toward owning premium rather than selling it, with the caveat that the realized number is inflated by July's crash and August's recovery, and that the August 11 report is distorting both sides of the comparison.

When is CRWV's next earnings report? Tuesday, August 11, after the close — before the August 14 expiration, which is why August 14 options price 132.9% implied volatility against 112.7% for August 21.

Where is CRWV's biggest options support and resistance? For the August 14 expiration: the put wall at $80 and the call wall at $100. Note that the whole chain's put wall sits far below at $50 — a far-dated hedging artifact, not this week's floor.

What invalidates this week's read? A close below $85.

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Methodology & disclosures. Data: end-of-day options-chain snapshot for CRWV, 2026-08-07, generated 2026-08-08T20:33:28.591Z. Prices shown are midpoints and will differ from live markets. Momentum/positioning scores and volatility-premium comparisons are descriptive measurements of past option flow and past price movement — not investment advice, signals, forecasts, or guarantees. Earnings dates and reported results are from the data provider's earnings feed as of 2026-08-08T20:33:28.591Z; report dates can change. All trade structures are hypothetical. Every structure shown has a defined maximum loss; you can lose the entire max-loss amount. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.