MARA Options Are Pricing a $1.54 Move Into July 31 — Our Chart Models See $11.85

The options market implies a $10.61–$13.69 range into the July 31 expiration; here's what's driving it, where the forward model stands aside, and three defined-risk ways to trade the next five days.

Published Sunday, July 26, 2026 · Data as of the July 24, 2026 close

Explore the live MARA options data in the Detailed Options Analyzer →

Quick answer

1 · What matters today

MARA closed at $12.12 after a violent five sessions that took it from $10.70 back to nearly $13 and then straight back down. The options market is pricing roughly $1.54 up or down into the July 31 expiration — that's the move implied by what straddles cost, or about 12.7% either way, a $10.61–$13.69 band. Inside that band, positioning is centred: max pain — the price where the most option value expires worthless — sits at $12.50, just above spot, and the heaviest call open interest in the whole chain sits at $13.00, right overhead. Our forward model doesn't take a usable side over this window, which hands the next five days to the levels. The one number that changes everything: a close below $11.85, which is also roughly where both technical reports think MARA is headed.

2 · What the options market is pricing

What changed this week

Price did the heavy lifting: MARA is +13.6% over the last five trading days yet still −12.5% over twenty — a sharp bounce inside a broken month. Implied volatility (the market's estimate of how much MARA will move, baked into option prices) sits at 96.9%, down 2.1% on the day and 1.8% over five sessions, but still 14.2% higher than a month ago and about 5% above its own 30-day average of 92.3%. Flow tilted hard to the call side: put/call volume came in at 0.33 — for every put contract traded there were three calls — versus a 0.44 three-day average and a 0.36 fourteen-day average. The biggest live open-interest build was in July 31 calls: the $14.50 strike added 12,493 contracts, the $13.50 strike 12,114, and the $13 strike 11,608 on 21,672 contracts traded and $650,160 of premium — the busiest contract in the chain. Into Friday's now-settled expiration, the $12 calls shed 16,314 contracts of open interest and the $13 calls 11,757; that's history, not a live magnet.

Expected move

Into July 31 the chain prices a 1σ move of ±12.7%, or about ±$1.54, around the $12.15 chain-snapshot price. Here's the ladder:

The jump from ±12.7% to ±20.1% between the first two rungs is far steeper than seven extra days of time should buy — that step is the earnings hump, explained below. Meanwhile MARA's actual movement over the last twenty sessions annualises to about 83.8% against 96.9% implied: options are priced roughly 13 volatility points above how much the stock has really been moving, a modest edge to premium sellers rather than premium buyers. The front-month-versus-two-month comparison is unavailable today — July 24 was an expiration date, so that interpolation can't be computed.

Volatility

IV rank is 52/100: today's implied volatility sits mid-range versus the past year's high and low, cheaper than 48% of the past year's readings. But the percentile tells a slightly different story — today's level is above 81% of the past year's daily prints, i.e. MARA has spent most of the last twelve months quieter than this. Current IV also sits above both its 30-day (92.3%) and 90-day (90.7%) averages, and the one-day and five-day drift is gently lower. Net read: premium is rich enough to sell in defined-risk structures, not rich enough to be handing out free money, and not cheap enough to make naked long options attractive into a 7-day expiration.

Earnings on the calendar

MARA reports on Tuesday, August 4, during market hours — after the July 31 expiration and before August 7. That single fact explains the ladder's kink: the jump from ±12.7% into July 31 to ±20.1% into August 7 is the chain bracing for the report, and it is why every structure below uses the July 31 expiration, which carries no gap exposure to it. The consensus estimate is a loss of $0.56 per share. The last two reports came in below expectations; the two before that beat. We take no view on the outcome.

Skew and sentiment

Puts and calls the same distance from the stock price don't cost the same — and here 25-delta puts carry 2.7 volatility points more than 25-delta calls (99.8% versus 97.1%), against a 60-day median of just 0.4 points. Traders are paying up for crash protection even on a day when call volume swamped puts. Worth noting: that put premium has been bleeding off, flattening by a large margin over the last five sessions from a genuine extreme.

Sentiment across the curve is split. The 0–7 day bucket reads deeply negative — front-end put building and call open interest getting torn up into Friday's expiry — while the 7–30 day bucket is firmly positive (call open interest building, call-side flow dominating) and the 30–60 day bucket is mildly positive. Our momentum read of option flow sits at +24 on a −100/+100 scale versus a +9 three-day average and −8 over seven and fourteen days: flow turned sharply call-heavy in the last three sessions after two negative weeks, with a fresh bullish crossover on July 23. Our leading positioning read — flow, skew and term inputs only, with lagging price and IV trend stripped out — also flipped to the bullish side of neutral at +33. Against that, the multi-horizon trend read stays mixed: bullish over five days, bearish over twenty, neutral over fifty.

The key levels map

Three unfilled down gaps in the last three sessions (−2.7%, −2.2%, −1.8%) sit between $12.14 and $12.54: sellers have been leaning on every open.

Positioning and unusual flow

The dealer-gamma picture is an estimate, built on an assumed convention rather than observed inventory — but that estimate reads the July 31 expiration as positive-gamma, meaning market makers' hedging of what they've sold tends to dampen moves rather than amplify them, with a pivot near $13.50. Two of the later expirations (August 7, August 28) estimate the other way; the week we care about is the calming one.

Three live flow items stood out:

• July 31 $13 calls — 21,672 contracts traded, open interest up 11,608 to 24,074, $650,160 of premium. The most-traded contract in the chain sits exactly at the chain's heaviest call strike: whoever is on the short side of that is now hedging around $13.

• July 31 $14 and $14.50 calls — 25,103 traded at $14 (open interest +8,482) and $12,493 contracts added at $14.50. Upside positioning is being built above the implied-range top, not inside it.

• August 21 $12.50 puts — 1,693 traded against 2,409 open (open interest +1,710), $251,411 of premium. This is the only sizeable put build of the day, and it deliberately spans the August 4 report.

3 · The forward read: 1 to 10 trading days out

Alongside the flow measurements above — which describe what traders have done — our forward model tries to look ahead: it compares today's positioning patterns against more than a year of history and estimates the odds that MARA closes higher 1, 3, 5, and 10 trading days from now. It outputs a probability tilt, not a price target — direction comes from the model, magnitude from the expected-move ladder above. And when the day's patterns don't resemble anything with a reliable follow-through, it simply doesn't take a side.

This is close to a full abstention, and that is the finding. At the 1- and 10-day marks today's mix of signals doesn't match any pattern that has historically resolved one way often enough to bet on — a design feature of the model, not a failure. At 3 and 5 days there is a whisper of upward tilt, but history says reads like this one have added nothing beyond the market's usual drift, so it earns no weight in this week's bias and no influence on the strikes below.

What the model's descriptive readings do say is worth a line: MARA's 20-day realized volatility of 83.8% sits well above its own recent norm, and the stock is closer to that estimated gamma pivot than usual. Translation: a stock moving this much, with the priced journey at roughly ±$1.54 over five days, gives the levels below room to be tested in both directions before Friday.

4 · Technical check

Both technical reports lean the same way, and both lean against the options structure. The 3-day read (target date July 29) is bearish with a target of $11.85 and a $11.55–$12.45 range, citing a fresh MACD bearish crossover, a directional-index flip with −DI above +DI, and RSI collapsing from 64 to 43.7 in two sessions. The 5-day read (target date July 31) is also bearish, same $11.85 target, $11.50–$12.35 range, with price now below both its short EMAs and hugging the lower Bollinger Band at $12.10. Its dominant scenario is invalidated on a reclaim and close above $12.45.

Classified against the options data, this is a divergence: the chart's direction contradicts a chain whose max pain sits above spot at $12.50 and whose short-dated flow has been call-heavy. The target itself, though, sits comfortably inside the options-implied $10.61–$13.69 band — the chart isn't calling for anything the market hasn't already priced as ordinary. The forward model abstains at both matching horizons, so it neither confirms nor contradicts. Practically, the TA read did one thing to the structures below: it shaded the condor's short call side down to $13 instead of $14, leaving the downside wing further out.

Model vs. Market: The options market implies $10.61–$13.69 into July 31 and centres its positioning at $12.50; both technical models target $11.85, and the forward model doesn't take a side at either horizon. That $0.65 gap between max pain and the chart target is the whole week — it resolves on whether $12.02 (the 200-day) and $11.85 hold.

Full technical write-ups: 3-day report → · 5-day report →

5 · Three ways the next five days can go

If MARA pushes above $13.00: that's the chain's heaviest call strike, and the biggest single flow of the week printed right there. Heavy call open interest overhead tends to slow rallies as the other side hedges into it; a clean break leaves the estimated gamma pivot near $13.50, the implied-range top at $13.69, and then July 31's $14.00 call wall — where 30,820 calls are open and the 50-day average at $13.26 sits in the way.

If MARA drifts between the walls: the base case. Max pain for July 31 is $12.50, the 20-day average is $12.55, and the positive-gamma estimate for this expiration suggests hedging flows lean toward damping rather than amplifying. That combination points to churn between roughly $11.85 and $13.00 into Friday, with the $12.22–$12.55 shelf as the magnet zone.

If MARA breaks below $11.85: the acceleration case, and the one both technical models favour. Below the 200-day at $12.02 and the $11.85/$11.78 swing shelf, live put open interest thins out until the $11.00 strike (5,864 contracts), with nothing structural again until the $10.00 put wall and the implied-range floor at $10.61. Three consecutive unfilled down gaps overhead say sellers haven't finished.

6 · Three defined-risk structures

Prices are end-of-day midpoints as of July 24, 2026. All structures are hypothetical. Verify live prices before trading — these will be stale by the open.

If you lean bullish: short put spread

• Trade: Sell the July 31 $11.50 / $11.00 put spread

• Credit: $0.145 ($14.50 per spread) · Max profit: $14.50 · Max loss: $35.50 · Break-even: $11.355

• Why it fits: You collect premium for MARA simply not falling 6.5% in five days. The short strike sits below the 200-day ($12.02), the $11.85 kill switch and the swing shelf, and above the first real put cushion at $11.00. Credit spreads pay you now and win if price stays above the short strike at expiry.

• Makes sense only if: you believe the $11.85–$12.02 zone holds, i.e. you're taking the options structure's side of the divergence.

• Invalidated if: MARA closes below $11.85.

• Earnings exposure: Expires four days before the August 4 report — no earnings-gap risk.

• Managing it: Close at ~50% of max credit; exit regardless by Thursday's close rather than carrying expiration-day gamma; if MARA closes through $11.50, close it rather than hope.

• Liquidity note: The $11.50 puts traded 3¢ wide ($0.32/$0.35) on $78,859 of premium and the $11.00 puts 2¢ wide ($0.18/$0.20) on 2,652 contracts — fills are easy, but note the credit is small relative to the risk, so slippage matters more than usual.

• Analyze this position →

If you expect the range to hold: short iron condor (best fit)

• Trade: Sell the July 31 $11.50 / $10.50 put spread and the July 31 $13.00 / $14.00 call spread

• Credit: $0.405 ($40.50) · Max profit: $40.50 · Max loss: $59.50 · Break-evens: $11.095 and $13.405

• Why it fits: Both short strikes carry roughly a 0.31 delta, so the structure is balanced, and the short call sits exactly on the chain's heaviest call strike while the short put sits under the swing shelf. Implied volatility at 96.9% against 83.8% realized is the case for being a seller; max pain at $12.50 is the case for the middle.

• Makes sense only if: you accept the honest catch — the market's own 1σ range ($10.61–$13.69) is wider than these break-evens. This trade is a bet that MARA's realized move undershoots what's priced, which is what the implied-versus-realized gap suggests but never guarantees.

• Invalidated if: MARA closes below $11.85 or above $13.00 — at either point one side is live and should be managed, not held.

• Earnings exposure: Expires four days before the August 4 report — no earnings-gap risk.

• Managing it: Take profit at ~50% of the credit; close the whole condor if either short strike is breached on a closing basis; hard exit Thursday.

• Liquidity note: The $13 calls are the busiest contract in the chain (2¢ wide, $0.29/$0.31, $650,160 traded) and the $14 calls are 3¢ wide ($0.11/$0.14 — 24% of mid, use limits). The $10.50 put wing is the weak link at 7¢ wide ($0.07/$0.14); expect to give up a few cents of edge there or move that wing to $11.00 and accept the narrower spread.

• Analyze this position →

If you lean bearish: long put spread

• Trade: Buy the July 31 $12.50 put, sell the July 31 $11.50 put

• Debit: $0.475 ($47.50) · Max profit: $52.50 · Max loss: $47.50 · Break-even: $12.025

• Why it fits: This is the cleanest way to take the technical side of the divergence. You pay a debit up front and profit as price falls; the long strike is max pain at $12.50, the break-even is the 200-day average at $12.02, and both chart models' $11.85 target sits below it. Steepening put skew — puts 2.7 volatility points richer than calls versus a 0.4-point norm — is the cost you're accepting to own that direction.

• Makes sense only if: you think the $12.02/$11.85 shelf breaks this week, and you're willing to fight max pain and a call-heavy short-dated flow mix to do it.

• Invalidated if: MARA closes above $12.45 — the level both technical reports name as their own kill switch.

• Earnings exposure: Expires four days before the August 4 report — no earnings-gap risk.

• Managing it: Take profit at 60–70% of max value or on a tag of $11.85, whichever comes first; cut on a close back above $12.45; theta bites hard inside 3 DTE, so don't hold a losing debit spread into Friday.

• Liquidity note: The $12.50 puts traded 4¢ wide ($0.79/$0.83) on $132,840 of premium and the $11.50 puts 3¢ wide — both fill cleanly.

• Analyze this position →

If none of these: no trade

There is a respectable case for sitting this one out. IV rank at 52/100 is only middling, so credit sellers aren't being paid a premium-rich price for a stock that genuinely moves 12.7% in a week; the condor's break-evens sit inside the market's own 1σ range; and the directional structures require you to pick a winner in a fight where the flow says one thing and both charts say another, with a forward model that declines to break the tie. When our forward read abstains at every meaningful horizon and the two data sets disagree, "wait for a close through $11.85 or $13.00, then trade the resolution" is a complete strategy.

7 · Quick FAQ

What is MARA's expected move this week? About ±$1.54, or ±12.7%, into the July 31 expiration — a $10.61–$13.69 range, per the options market's straddle pricing as of the July 24 close.

Is MARA expected to go up or down over the next week? Our forward model doesn't take a usable side: it abstains at the 1- and 10-day marks, and its faint 3- and 5-day tilts higher are indistinguishable from MARA's normal drift. The actionable map is the $10.61–$13.69 range and the $11.50/$13.00 levels.

When is MARA's next earnings report? Tuesday, August 4, during market hours — after the July 31 expiration but before August 7, which is why options past July 31 carry noticeably more premium (±20.1% versus ±12.7%).

Where is MARA's biggest options support and resistance? For July 31, the call wall is $14.00 and the put wall is $10.00 — but the nearest barriers that matter are the chain's heaviest call strike at $13.00 and the $11.50/$11.00 put shelf.

Is MARA implied volatility high or low right now? ATM IV is 96.9% with an IV rank of 52/100 — mid-range against the past year's extremes, though above 81% of the past year's daily readings, and about 13 volatility points above how much MARA has actually been moving.

What invalidates this week's read? A close below $11.85.

Methodology & disclosures. Data: end-of-day options-chain snapshot for MARA, July 24, 2026, generated July 26, 2026 14:52 UTC. Prices shown are midpoints and will differ from live markets. Momentum/positioning scores are descriptive measurements of past option flow — not investment advice, signals, or guarantees. The forward read is the output of a backtested statistical model fit across a broad watchlist over the past year-plus; it expresses a probability tilt about direction, not a price prediction, and past patterns do not guarantee future results. Earnings dates and reported results are from the data provider's earnings feed as of July 26, 2026 14:52 UTC; report dates can change. All trade structures are hypothetical. Every structure shown has a defined maximum loss; you can lose the entire max-loss amount. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.