NFLX Options Are Pricing a ±$3.44 Move Into August 7 — Our Technical Read Says $70.60

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The options market implies a $68.46–$75.34 range into the August 7 expiration; here's what's driving it and three defined-risk ways to trade it.

Published Saturday, August 1, 2026 · Data as of the July 31 close · Export generated August 1, 2026

Explore the live NFLX options data in the Detailed Options Analyzer →

Quick answer

Item	Answer
Market bias	Neutral
Options-implied range (into August 7)	$68.46 – $75.34 (±4.79%)
Major support	$70 (August 7 max pain, biggest gamma strike in the chain); $70.86 swing support just above it
Major resistance	$75 (August 7 call wall, 7,987 contracts)
Max pain (August 7)	$70
Dealer gamma regime (estimate)	Positive for the August 7 expiration — hedging there tends to dampen moves; the whole-chain estimate is negative (amplifying). Flip level could not be computed from today's chain
Volatility condition	Falling versus a month ago, flat this week — IV rank 28/100 · premium fair: options are priced within a fraction of a vol point of delivered movement (distorted by the July 16 report still sitting inside the realized-volatility window)
Next earnings	October 20 (after close) — 74 days after the August 7 expiration, so nothing in this article carries earnings-gap risk
Technical check	Mixed — both models read bearish ($70.90 at 3 days, $70.60 at 6 days), with targets inside the options-implied range
Best-fitting strategy	Iron condor with short strikes at the August 7 walls, conditional on the $70.86–$73.76 range holding
Analysis invalidated if	NFLX closes above $73.76

1 · What matters today

Netflix closed Friday at $71.71 after a 2.6% bounce over five sessions that still leaves it down 7.3% over the past month. Our read of options flow comes out genuinely neutral — the pieces disagree with each other rather than pointing one way. What is not neutral is the map. For the August 7 expiration, the heaviest call open interest sits at $75, max pain sits at $70, and the option market's own pricing implies a $68.46–$75.34 range over the next six days. That means the two levels most likely to matter both sit at or below the current price. Both of our technical reads agree, targeting roughly $70.60. One level changes the picture: a close above $73.76 breaks the post-gap range and turns the $75 call wall into the target instead of the ceiling.

2 · What the options market is pricing

What changed this week

The week's story is a quiet, call-tilted bounce inside a broken chart. Put activity ran at 0.40 puts for every call traded — for every put contract that changed hands there were about 2.5 calls — against a 7-day average of 0.48 and a 14-day average of 0.49, so flow was more call-heavy than usual. Total option volume was only 0.81× its 20-day average: this was a light tape, not a conviction move. The ratio of put to call open interest (contracts held open) eased from 0.98 to 0.93 over five sessions, meaning outstanding downside protection thinned slightly rather than building.

The clearest fresh footprint is at $75. The August 7 $75 calls added 3,802 contracts of open interest in a single session on 8,327 traded, taking that strike to 7,987 open — that is the week's call wall, and it was built this week. The August 7 $78 calls added 2,770 more. At-the-money implied volatility — the market's estimate of how much NFLX will move, baked into option prices — finished at 35.2%, up 5.1% over five days but down 19.5% over 30 days. (Into Friday's expiration, the settled $73 puts had added 5,593 contracts of open interest and the $72 calls churned 42,047 contracts on their way to expiring worthless; that is history, not a live level.)

The short- and long-term trend reads are pulling apart, and that tension is the honest headline for the week: over the past five sessions the read is bullish on a +2.6% price move, over the past month it is bearish on −7.3%, and over the past two and a half months it is bearish on −19.5%. A fresh momentum crossover turned up on July 28. Near-term flow and the bigger trend are pointing in different directions, which is exactly the setup where a bounce stalls at the first heavy strike overhead.

Expected move

Into August 7, the options market is pricing a move of about ±4.79%, or ±$3.44 — that is the move implied by what straddles cost, measured against the chain's $71.90 reference price. That frames a $68.46–$75.34 band for the six-day window.

Expiration	Implied move	Range around $71.90
August 7 (7 days)	±4.79%	$68.46 – $75.34
August 14 (14 days)	±6.74%	$67.05 – $76.75
August 21 (21 days)	±8.30%	$65.93 – $77.87
August 28 (~1 month)	±9.82%	$64.84 – $78.96

The rungs step up smoothly with time — no hump, no kink, no bulge at any single date. There is no scheduled-event premium baked into any one expiration here; the curve is just time doing its normal work.

Volatility

At-the-money implied volatility is 35.2% with an IV rank of 28/100 — today's reading is cheaper than roughly 72% of the past year's readings. It sits well under both the 30-day average (43.7%) and the 90-day average (37.7%), and the ~60-day tenor prints 36.2%. The front-month read is unavailable today because the nearest expiration in the snapshot was a same-day expiry, so there is no clean front-versus-back comparison to make.

Two readings stand out against this stock's own recent history. Movement is cooling: five-day realized volatility is running at about 0.85× the 20-day figure, slightly below its own norm, while 20-day realized volatility itself is about typical for NFLX. And the compression in implied volatility versus its own 30-day average is more pronounced than usual for this name — the market has been letting the post-shock fear premium out steadily.

Premium rich or cheap? The gap between how much movement options are priced for and how much NFLX has actually delivered — when it's positive, option sellers have been collecting more than realized movement cost them — is essentially zero today: implied volatility of 35.2% against 20-day realized volatility of 35.2%. That gap sits at the 38th percentile of this stock's own recent readings, meaning it has been richer than about 38% of them and thinner than the rest. Two weeks ago the same gap was deeply negative (about −12 vol points); the recovery back to flat is mechanical, not a signal — the July 16 report produced an 11.9% gap lower on July 17, and that single day has been inflating the 20-day realized figure ever since. Some of that "fair" reading is that gap working its way out of the window, not free premium either way. With IV rank at 28 and the premium comparison neutral-to-distorted, there is no volatility edge here in either direction: sell premium for the structure and the levels, not for the richness.

Skew and sentiment

Puts and calls the same distance from the stock price don't cost the same — when puts are pricier, traders are paying up for crash protection. Right now 25-delta puts trade at 35.4% implied volatility versus 35.1% for the equivalent calls: puts are 0.24 vol points over calls. That sounds like nothing, but the 60-day norm for NFLX is negative 0.90 vol points — calls usually carry the premium in this name. Relative to its own history, the skew has steepened by more than a vol point, and it is one of the most stretched readings on the board versus this stock's own norm. Translation: even while volume tilted call-heavy this week, the pricing of downside protection quietly firmed.

Sentiment across expiration dates is mixed, and that is the file's own one-word summary. The 0–7 day bucket is dead flat (+1), the 7–30 day bucket leans slightly negative (−7), and the 30–60 day bucket is the most negative of the set (−21), driven by risk reversals showing puts about 2 vol points richer than their own baseline out there. Against the 7-day averages (0–7d +3, 7–30d +1) nothing has moved dramatically; the near-dated read is calm, the intermediate read carries the caution.

The key levels map

Level	Price	Why it matters
200-day moving average	$91.30	21.5% overhead — the longer-term structure is still broken
Whole chain's heaviest call strike	$90	107,233 calls open, but concentrated in far-dated expirations — not this window's ceiling
Swing resistance	$78.44	Heuristic swing-pivot cluster (an estimate, not a guaranteed zone)
50-day moving average	$77.11	First trend level above the walls; 7% away
Call wall (August 7)	$75	7,987 calls open, 3,802 added Friday; also the top of the implied range ($75.34) and the chain's second-largest gamma strike
July 17 gap origin	$74.35	The close before the −11.9% gap; unfilled overhead
Swing resistance / invalidation	$73.76	Top of the post-gap range — a close above it kills this week's read
Recent gap edge	$73.17	Wednesday's close, gapped away from on Thursday and Friday
20-day moving average	$72.30	Price is 0.8% below it and it has flattened
Spot / close	$71.90 / $71.71	Chain reference price and official close
Swing support	$70.86	Nearest heuristic support (an estimate) — the first thing a drift lower tests
Max pain (August 7) / largest gamma strike	$70	The price where the most option value expires worthless; also the single largest gamma·OI strike in the chain
Bottom of the implied range	$68.46	The 1σ downside the market is pricing for August 7
July 17 gap open / 52-week low	$65.48 / $65.08	Unfilled gap zone and the yearly low; $65 is the whole chain's heaviest put strike (83,808)
Put wall (August 7)	$60	7,054 puts open — the biggest pile in this expiration, but 17% below spot, which is the point: there is no thick put shelf between here and the mid-$60s

Positioning and unusual flow

Market makers hedge the options they've sold, and one rough estimate of that positioning splits two ways here. Scoped to the August 7 expiration alone the estimate is positive — hedging in that expiration tends to dampen moves, which supports the pin case. Scoped to the whole chain it flips negative, meaning hedging would tend to amplify moves. For a six-day trade, the August 7 read is the one that applies; the whole-chain figure is the reminder that the cushion is local, not structural. The chain does not yield a computable flip level today, so there is no specific price to name below which hedging turns hostile.

Three flow items are worth naming, all in live contracts. The August 7 $73 calls were the busiest thing on the board: 12,631 contracts traded against 2,946 open, about $1.1 million of premium — traders reaching for the top of the post-gap range within the week. The August 7 $77 calls turned over 9,635 against 2,210 open, cheap lottery tickets well outside the implied range. And a smaller but cleaner tell: the August 28 $71 puts traded 1,140 against just 229 open, fresh downside positioning placed a month out rather than in the week. Separately, 1,622 deep in-the-money August 21 $96 puts printed for roughly $3.9 million — those quote 13% wide and look far more like position housekeeping than a new directional bet.

3 · Technical check

Both technical reads point the same way, and both are fresh as of August 1. The 3-day model (target date August 4) is bearish with a target of $70.90 inside a $69.60–$73.00 range, support at $70.60 and resistance at $72.50. The 6-day model, which lands exactly on the August 7 expiration, is also bearish: target $70.60 inside $68.90–$73.70, support at $70.60 and resistance at $73.60. Its reference price of $71.70 matches the options close to a penny, so there is no data-date mismatch to discount.

The mechanics behind both: a fresh MACD bearish crossover with price slipping just under a flattened, converging pair of short-term moving averages, and a weak trend gauge (ADX 17.1) whose directional components still favor sellers. Cutting the other way, money flow has kept climbing while price faded — a genuine accumulation divergence that argues for a drift rather than a breakdown. That is why both reports label their conviction moderate and give the dominant bearish scenario only a 45% weight, with range-bound chop at 35%.

Model vs. Market: The options market implies $68.46–$75.34 into August 7; the 6-day technical model targets $70.60 inside a narrower $68.90–$73.70. The chart expects a tighter, lower resolution than the options are paying for — which is a mild argument for selling the wings rather than buying a big move, and it is why the short strikes below are shaded down toward the $70 magnet instead of centered on spot.

Full technical write-ups: 6-day report → · 3-day report →

4 · Three ways the next six days can go

If NFLX pushes above the call wall ($75): that strike carries 7,987 open calls, nearly half of them added on Friday, and the heaviest call open interest overhead tends to slow rallies as hedging works against them. It also coincides with the top of the implied range. A clean break through it leaves comparatively thin positioning until the 50-day average at $77.11 and the swing shelf near $78.44 — but note that a close above $73.76 would already have invalidated this article's read on the way there.

If NFLX drifts between the walls: this is the base case. Max pain for August 7 sits at $70, the largest gamma·OI strike in the whole chain also sits at $70, and the estimated hedging regime for this specific expiration is the dampening kind. Expiring open interest and hedging flows in that configuration tend to pull price toward the fat part of the strike distribution — here, the $70–$72 shelf — rather than push it out of the corridor. Both technical targets ($70.60 and $70.90) land inside that zone.

If NFLX breaks below $70: this expiration's put wall is all the way down at $60, so there is no meaningful pile of open puts between spot and the mid-$60s to act as a barrier — the nearest sizeable clusters are $70 (2,092) and $65 (3,364). The whole-chain hedging estimate is the amplifying kind, and the unfilled July 17 gap zone runs from $65.48 up to $74.35. A close under $70.86 that fails to recover puts $68.46 (the bottom of the implied range) in play quickly. Today's chain does not produce a usable flip-level estimate, so treat "below $70" as the practical fragility line rather than quoting a precise pivot.

5 · Three defined-risk structures

Prices are end-of-day midpoints as of July 31. All structures are hypothetical. Verify live prices before trading — these will be stale by the open.

If you lean bullish: August 7 $70/$68 put credit spread

• Trade: Sell the August 7 $70 put, buy the August 7 $68 put. You collect a credit up front and keep it if NFLX stays above $70.
• Credit: $0.40 · Max profit: $40 · Max loss: $160 · Break-even: $69.60
• Why it fits: the short strike sits exactly on the August 7 max pain and the chain's largest gamma strike, with swing support at $70.86 just above it — the densest part of the map in this expiration.
• Makes sense only if: you think the $70.86 shelf holds and the pin case wins. This is the structure that fights the technical read, so size it accordingly.
• Invalidated if: NFLX closes below $70.86.
• Managing it: close at roughly 50% of max credit; with only six days of life, exit by August 5 if it hasn't worked, and close rather than hope if NFLX closes through $70.
• Liquidity note: the $70 puts traded 2¢ wide and the $68 puts 2¢ wide — fills are easy.
• Analyze this position →

If you expect the range to hold: August 7 $67/$69/$75/$77 iron condor

• Trade: Sell the $69 put and buy the $67 put; sell the $75 call and buy the $77 call, all August 7. You collect one credit for both wings and keep it if NFLX finishes between $69 and $75.
• Credit: $0.48 ($0.255 put side, $0.225 call side) · Max profit: $48 · Max loss: $152 (only one side can lose) · Break-evens: $68.52 and $75.48
• Why it fits: the short call sits on this expiration's call wall and the top of the implied range; the short put sits below the $70 max pain and below the technical model's $70.60 target, so the profit zone contains every magnet on the map. The premium comparison is neutral rather than rich, so this is a levels trade, not a volatility trade.
• Makes sense only if: you accept a modest credit for a wide zone and are willing to manage a tested wing rather than ride it.
• Invalidated if: NFLX closes above $73.76 or below $70.86 — either close puts one wing on notice well before the break-even.
• Managing it: take profits at ~50% of the credit; close the tested side if NFLX closes through $69 or $75, and don't hold a threatened wing into the August 7 morning, when the July employment report prints at 8:30 a.m.
• Liquidity note: the $75 calls quote 2¢ wide and the $77 calls 1¢; the $69 puts are 3¢ wide (about 8% of a 39.5¢ mark), so work the put wing rather than taking the market.
• Analyze this position →

If you lean bearish: August 7 $72/$70 put debit spread

• Trade: Buy the August 7 $72 put, sell the August 7 $70 put. You pay a debit and are betting NFLX finishes at or below $70.
• Debit: $0.85 · Max profit: $115 · Max loss: $85 · Break-even: $71.15
• Why it fits: it targets the exact confluence both technical models point at ($70.60 and $70.90) and the August 7 max pain at $70, and it pays better than 1:1 for a move of just 2.4% — with IV rank at 28 you are not overpaying for the option you own.
• Makes sense only if: you accept that the near-term flow read is neutral, not bearish, and that you are leaning on the chart plus the pin level rather than on positioning.
• Invalidated if: NFLX closes above $73.76 (both technical reports flag $72.90–$73.60 as their own reclaim level, so the warning comes earlier than the kill switch).
• Managing it: because the near-term trend fights the bigger downtrend, take profits early — at $70–$70.60 rather than waiting for the full $2.00 spread width — and cut it if NFLX reclaims $72.50 with two closes above.
• Liquidity note: the $72 puts traded 6¢ wide (about 4% of mark) and the $70 puts 2¢; both are among the busiest contracts in the expiration.
• Analyze this position →

If none of these: no trade

There is a clean case for standing aside. IV rank at 28/100 means premium sellers are not being paid a year-relative premium, and the gap between implied and delivered movement is sitting at zero and mechanically distorted by the July 16 gap still inside the realized-volatility window — so the usual "premium is rich, collect it" argument simply isn't available this week. Meanwhile the directional case rests on a neutral positioning read plus a technical model that gives its own dominant scenario only a 45% weight. Add a macro calendar that lands a heavyweight print on the morning of expiration and a chart that has gapped three times in the past two weeks, and a six-day defined-risk trade is a fine thing to skip. Waiting for either a close outside $70.86–$73.76 or an IV rank that pays you properly is a legitimate fourth option.

6 · Quick FAQ

What is NFLX's expected move this week? About ±$3.44, or ±4.79%, into the August 7 expiration — a $68.46–$75.34 band, derived from what straddles cost as of the July 31 close.

Is NFLX expected to go up or down over the next six days? Options positioning as of July 31 reads neutral — call-tilted volume on light overall activity, offset by unusually firm demand for downside protection — but that's a read of what traders have done, not a forecast. The actionable map is the $68.46–$75.34 range, the $70 max pain and $70.86 support below, and the $75 call wall above; both technical models target roughly $70.60.

Are NFLX options expensive right now? IV rank 28/100 says option prices are lower than about 72% of the past year's readings; on top of that, they're running essentially level with the movement NFLX has actually delivered, which is thinner than about 62% of this stock's own recent readings. Verdict: fairly priced at best, and part of that "fair" is the July 16 gap still inflating the realized-volatility comparison — so don't treat either side as an edge.

Where is NFLX's biggest options support and resistance? For August 7, the call wall is $75 (7,987 contracts) and the put wall is $60 (7,054 contracts) — with the practical support being the $70 max pain and largest-gamma strike, plus swing support at $70.86. Across the whole chain the heaviest strikes are $90 on the call side and $65 on the put side, but those live mostly in far-dated expirations.

What are the catalysts inside this window? The editor's calendar for August 3–7 (times Eastern) lists ISM Manufacturing PMI and construction spending — 10:00 a.m. and the Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Survey — 2:00 p.m. on Monday, August 3; ISM Services PMI — 10:00 a.m. on Wednesday, August 5; and the July employment report — nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate and wage growth — 8:30 a.m. on Friday, August 7, the morning the featured expiration settles. The chain shows no obvious footprint of any of them: the expected-move ladder steps up smoothly with no bulge at August 7, and IV rank is near the bottom third of its year.

What invalidates this read? A close above $73.76.

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Methodology & disclosures. Data: end-of-day options-chain snapshot for NFLX, 2026-07-31, generated 2026-08-01T20:18:53Z. Prices shown are midpoints and will differ from live markets. Momentum/positioning scores and volatility-premium comparisons are descriptive measurements of past option flow and past price movement — not investment advice, signals, forecasts, or guarantees. Earnings dates and reported results are from the data provider's earnings feed as of 2026-08-01T20:18:53Z; report dates can change. All trade structures are hypothetical. Every structure shown has a defined maximum loss; you can lose the entire max-loss amount. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.