NFLX Options Outlook: Will $78.44 Hold Through August 28?

The options market implies a $76.89–$83.39 range into the August 28 expiration; here's what's driving it, where the walls sit, and three defined-risk ways to trade the next five days.

Published Sunday, August 23, 2026 · Data as of the August 21 close

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Quick answer

Item	Answer
Market bias	Neutral — the flow signals genuinely disagree with each other
Options-implied range (into Aug 28)	$76.89 – $83.39 (±4.1%)
Major support	$78.44 (swing shelf); the Aug 28 put wall sits far below at $70
Major resistance	$85 (Aug 28 call wall, right on the $85.10 swing shelf)
Max pain (Aug 28)	$75
Dealer gamma regime (estimate)	Positive — hedging tends to dampen moves; flip level ≈ $35, far below spot
Volatility condition	Falling — IV rank 17/100 · premium thin: options priced about 1 vol point below delivered movement
Technical check	Diverges (bearish, 3-day and 5-day horizons)
Best-fitting strategy	Aug 28 $80/$77 put debit spread (long premium, technically aligned)
Analysis invalidated if	NFLX closes above $81.00

1 · What matters today

Netflix closed the week at $79.59 after a 2.5% five-day gain and a 14.3% run over the past month. The options market is pricing a move of roughly $3.25 either way through Friday, August 28 — a $76.89 to $83.39 band, derived from what at-the-money straddles cost. Our read of the options flow lands squarely neutral: leading positioning is faintly negative, near-dated sentiment is faintly positive, and skew has quietly steepened toward puts. Nobody in this chain is making a confident bet.

The tie-breaker comes from the chart, and it points down: both technical horizons target the $78.60–$78.90 area. That makes $78.44, the first swing shelf beneath spot, the number that matters — and options are cheap enough right now that buying a defined-risk view beats selling one.

2 · What the options market is pricing

What changed this week

The stock did the work; the options market got quieter. Implied volatility — the market's estimate of how much NFLX will move, baked into option prices — finished at 31.1%, down 4.2% on the day and down 35.9% over the past 30 sessions, sitting well under both its 30-day average of 36.9% and its 90-day average of 36.1%. Meanwhile the flow tilted defensive: put volume ran at 0.61 per call contract, against a 14-day average of 0.40 and a 60-day median of 0.44. For every 100 calls traded, 61 puts changed hands; two weeks ago the typical day was 40. Open interest tells the slower version of the same story — the put/call open-interest ratio went from 0.75 to 0.83 over five sessions, an 11% build on the downside.

The trend reads agree with each other and disagree with the last two sessions. Over the past week and the past month, price and flow have both pointed up (+2.5% and +14.3% respectively); over the past two-and-a-half months the stock is essentially flat. But the momentum read flipped from bullish to bearish on Friday itself — a fresh crossover against an otherwise intact recovery, and the first one since late July. That is the single most important change in the file.

Expected move

Into the August 28 expiration, the chain prices a 1σ move of ±4.06%, or about ±$3.25 around the $80.14 snapshot price — a $76.89 to $83.39 range. Here is how that scales out:

Expiration	Implied move	Range around $80.14
Friday, August 28 (7 days)	±4.06%	$76.89 – $83.39
Friday, September 4 (14 days)	±6.00%	$75.33 – $84.95
Friday, September 18 (28 days)	±8.58%	$73.26 – $87.02

The rungs step up smoothly with the square root of time — there is no bulge anywhere in the ladder, which is what a calendar with no scheduled event inside it looks like.

Volatility

IV rank is 17/100: today's implied volatility is cheaper than roughly 83% of the past year's readings, and the percentile measure (30) says much the same. The front of the curve is a touch below the two-month tenor — about 0.4 vol points of contango, the calm-market shape, with no stress kink. Against this stock's own recent history, realized movement is the interesting part: 20-day realized volatility of 32.1% is about typical for NFLX, but the 5-day pace is running roughly 17% hotter than that 20-day baseline. The stock has been moving a little faster lately, not slower.

That matters for the buy-versus-sell question. The volatility risk premium — the gap between how much movement options are priced for and how much NFLX has actually delivered — is currently negative by about 1 vol point. When it is positive, option sellers have been collecting more than realized movement cost them; here they have been collecting slightly less. At the 41st percentile versus this stock's own recent readings, that gap is thinner than roughly 59% of them — middling, but on the cheap side of the ledger. One path note: the premium flipped from deeply negative to mildly positive on August 14, and that flip was mechanical, not a trader signal — the July 17 earnings gap simply rolled out of the 20-day realized-volatility window. It has since drifted back below zero as the last week's realized movement picked up. Combine an IV rank of 17 with a slightly negative premium over delivered movement and the verdict is straightforward: this is a week to own defined-risk premium rather than sell it.

Skew and sentiment

Skew measures whether puts and calls the same distance from the stock price cost the same — when puts get pricier, traders are paying up for crash protection. At the 25-delta strikes, NFLX puts are priced at 30.96% versus 31.62% for calls: calls are still the richer side by about 0.6 vol points. But the 60-day median for this name is calls richer by 1.4 points, and the three-day average was closer to 3 points. Relative demand snapped back toward downside protection on Friday, and against this stock's own norm that shift is one of the most stretched readings in the file — unusually put-leaning for NFLX, even though the raw level still shows calls on top.

Sentiment across the curve is mixed rather than directional. The 0–7 day bucket reads mildly bullish, driven by call-tilted delta-weighted flow; the 7–30 day and 30–60 day buckets read slightly negative, driven by that same relative put richness. No single term dominates — which is exactly why the headline bias is neutral rather than tilted.

The key levels map

Level	Price	Why it matters
Whole-chain heaviest call strike	$90	132,116 calls open across all expirations — but concentrated in September 18, not this week
200-day moving average	$88.42	Price sits 10% below it; the recovery is still inside a longer downtrend
Call wall (Aug 28) / swing resistance	$85 / $85.10	6,831 calls open at the $85 strike for this expiration, sitting on a price-structure shelf
Top of implied range (Aug 28)	$83.39	1σ upper rail from straddle pricing
100-day moving average	$82.99	Overhead trend resistance, 3.6% above spot
Near-dated call shelf	$82 – $83	2,834 and 2,635 calls open for Aug 28; Friday's heaviest call buying landed here
Largest gamma strike (chain-wide)	$80	By far the biggest gamma pile in the chain — a magnet while spot sits on it
Chain snapshot price / official close	$80.14 / $79.59	Strikes and expected-move math anchor to the chain price; prose quotes the close
First swing support	$78.44	The level this week's thesis hangs on
Bottom of implied range (Aug 28)	$76.89	1σ lower rail
20-day moving average	$75.28	Rising trend support from the July low
Max pain (Aug 28)	$75	Where the most option value would expire worthless — 6% below spot, a weak pull from here
50-day moving average	$74.52	The base of the entire August advance
Put wall (Aug 28 and chain-wide)	$70	3,607 puts for this expiration, 85,903 across the chain — a distant floor, not a live level
52-week low	$65.08	Context: the stock is 37% below its 52-week high

Worth flagging plainly: the whole-chain call wall ($90) and the August 28 expiration's own call wall ($85) are not the same strike. The $90 pile lives in September 18 and beyond. For this week, $85 is the wall that applies; the put wall is $70 either way.

Positioning and unusual flow

One rough estimate of dealer positioning puts market makers in positive gamma both chain-wide and specifically at the August 28 expiration — the regime in which hedging flows tend to dampen moves rather than amplify them. The same estimate places the gamma flip level (below which hedging would start accelerating selling) at roughly $35, so far beneath spot that it is not a practical trigger this week; against this stock's own history, spot sits unusually far above that estimated flip. Treat all of that as an estimate built on an assumed dealer convention, not observed inventory.

Three live flow items stand out. The August 28 $82 calls traded 6,275 contracts against 2,834 open — 2.2× turnover and about $301,000 of premium, the single busiest non-expiring contract on the board; someone is paying for a push into the $82–$83 shelf. On the other side, the August 28 $78 puts turned over 2,248 against 1,122 open, and the $74 puts 1,784 against 826 — the latter clearing the 100th percentile of peer volume for comparable contracts. That is a barbell: a call chase at the top of the implied range and hedging at and below the bottom of it. Further out, the September 11 $76 puts printed 1,829 contracts against just 298 open — six times turnover, and a contract that has already lost 82% of its value as the stock rallied away from it.

(For context only: into Friday's now-settled expiration, the $81 calls traded 24,517 contracts against 11,122 open and the $80 puts 14,016 against 13,561. That flow is history — those contracts no longer exist.)

3 · Technical check

Both technical horizons come back bearish, and both are fresher than the options snapshot. The 3-day read targets $78.90 with a $77.80–$81.10 range; the 5-day read, which lands exactly on our August 28 expiration, targets $78.60 with a $77.20–$81.00 range. Their reference price of $79.62 is within pennies of the official $79.59 close, so the two data sets are describing the same stock.

The decisive reads behind that call: MACD crossed below its signal line around August 20 and the histogram has widened negative since, and the directional indicators have flipped — −DI at 27.1 now sits above +DI at 22.7 with ADX rising through 23.6, meaning sellers have taken short-term control of a trend that is building but not yet strong. Notably, the chart also flags a Bollinger Band squeeze roughly 1.7% wide, which is the price-structure version of the same thing our IV rank of 17 is saying: this stock is coiled and cheap.

Classification: diverges on direction, agrees on magnitude. The options market takes no side; the charts take a side, and it is lower. But both technical targets sit comfortably inside the priced range, so this is a disagreement about direction, not about how far the stock can travel. Practically, it shades the short strikes below toward the lower half of the range and argues for shorter-dated structures rather than anything that needs three weeks to work.

Model vs. Market: The options market implies $76.89–$83.39 into August 28; the 5-day technical model targets $78.60. The options chain is not paying you for direction here — the charts are the only thing in this article with a directional opinion, and a close back above $81.00 ends it.

Full technical write-ups: 3-day report → · 5-day report →

4 · Three ways the next five days can go

If NFLX pushes above $83.39 and toward the call wall ($85): the $82–$83 strikes carry the densest near-dated call open interest for this expiration, and the 100-day moving average sits at $82.99 — rallies through stacked call OI tend to slow as hedging flows lean against them, and this positioning estimate says dealer hedging currently dampens rather than accelerates. A clean break above $85 leaves comparatively thin near-dated positioning overhead until the $88–$90 zone, which belongs mostly to September expirations.

If NFLX drifts between the rails: the $80 strike carries by far the largest gamma pile in the chain and spot is sitting right on it — the classic pin configuration, reinforced by the positive-gamma estimate. Note that max pain for August 28 is $75, roughly 6% below spot and outside the priced range entirely; that is not a magnet within reach in five sessions, so the pin case here is $80, not $75. Expect chop between $78.44 and the $82–$83 shelf.

If NFLX breaks below $78.44: the next structural stops are the $76.89 lower rail, then the 20-day moving average at $75.28 and the 50-day at $74.52, with the August 28 max-pain strike at $75 sitting inside that cluster. Importantly, the acceleration mechanic is absent here — the estimated gamma flip level is far below spot, so one rough estimate suggests market-maker hedging would still cushion rather than amplify a slide of that size. A move to $78 in this regime is a drift, not a cascade.

5 · Three defined-risk structures

Prices are end-of-day midpoints as of August 21, 2026. All structures are hypothetical. Verify live prices before trading — these will be stale by the open.

Leading structure — if you lean lower: $80/$77 put debit spread

• Trade: Buy the Aug 28 $80 put, sell the Aug 28 $77 put
• Debit: $0.99 · Max profit: $201 · Max loss: $99 · Break-even: $79.01
• Why it fits: premium has been running about 1 vol point below what NFLX actually delivers, with IV rank at 17 — this is the cheap-options environment where paying a debit is the better side of the trade. The structure also sits directly on the technical read: both horizons target $78.60–$78.90, well inside the profit zone, and the momentum crossover that fired Friday is the reason those targets exist.
• Makes sense only if: you believe the short-term momentum flip matters more than the intact one-month uptrend. If you don't, skip it.
• Invalidated if: NFLX closes above $81.00
• Managing it: a short-term direction fighting a longer uptrend argues for taking money early — close at roughly 60% of max value rather than holding for the full $201, and exit by Wednesday's close if the stock is still above $79.50. Do not carry a losing debit spread into Friday morning.
• Liquidity note: the $80 puts quote 3¢ wide (about 2% of mid, with roughly $186,000 of premium traded Friday) and the $77 puts 2¢ wide — easy fills on both legs.
• Analyze this position →

If you lean bullish: $80/$83 call debit spread

• Trade: Buy the Aug 28 $80 call, sell the Aug 28 $83 call
• Debit: $1.07 · Max profit: $193 · Max loss: $107 · Break-even: $81.07
• Why it fits: the short strike sits under the $83.39 upper rail and well under the $85 call wall, so you are not asking price to fight the heaviest overhead open interest. Cheap implied volatility makes the debit small relative to the $3 width. Note the break-even is essentially this article's invalidation level — this is the trade that pays if our read is wrong.
• Makes sense only if: Friday's momentum flip proves to be noise and the August uptrend reasserts, with price reclaiming $80.50 early in the week.
• Invalidated if: NFLX closes below $78.44
• Managing it: this needs to work fast — a 7-day debit spread loses value quickly if the stock stalls. Take profits into any tag of $82.50–$83, and cut at half the debit if the stock closes under $79 on Tuesday.
• Liquidity note: the $80 calls quote 6¢ wide (~3.7% of mid, about $300,000 of premium traded); the $83 calls quote 3¢ wide, about 5% of a $0.57 mid — a penny of slippage is real money on a $1.07 debit, so work the order.
• Analyze this position →

If you expect the range to hold: $75/$77/$83/$85 iron condor

• Trade: Sell the Aug 28 $77 put / buy the $75 put, and sell the Aug 28 $83 call / buy the $85 call
• Credit: $0.565 · Max profit: $56 · Max loss: $144 · Break-evens: $76.44 and $83.57
• Why it fits: the short strikes sit almost exactly on the implied-move rails ($76.89 and $83.39), with the long call wing parked at the expiration's own call wall. In a positive-gamma estimate with the biggest gamma pile in the chain at $80 and spot sitting on it, a pin week is a legitimate base case.
• Health warning: you are selling premium that has not been rich lately — options are priced about a vol point below delivered movement and IV rank is 17. You are collecting $56 to risk $144 in the cheapest volatility environment of the past year. Size it accordingly, or skip it.
• Makes sense only if: you specifically want the pin and are comfortable with a 2.5-to-1 risk-to-reward ratio.
• Invalidated if: NFLX closes outside $76.89–$83.39
• Managing it: close at roughly 50% of max credit; exit the whole thing Thursday regardless. If either short strike is breached on a closing basis, close that side rather than hoping for a reversal — the payoff math does not survive a tested wing.
• Liquidity note: the body is fine (the $77 puts and $83 calls quote 2–3¢ wide), but the wings are cheap: the $75 puts are 2¢ wide on a 16¢ mid and the $85 calls 2¢ on a 25¢ mid. Pennies in dollars, wide in percentage terms — use limit orders on the full four-leg package.
• Analyze this position →

If none of these: no trade

This is a defensible week to do nothing. The credit structure is underpaid — with IV rank at 17 and premium running below delivered movement, you are being asked to take the short-volatility side of a market that has not compensated that side lately. The debit structures are cheap, but the options data itself supplies no directional edge; the only directional opinion in this article comes from the technical read, and a five-session horizon gives it very little room to be right slowly. If you have no conviction about whether $78.44 holds, the honest position is cash, and the cheap-volatility backdrop will still be there next week.

6 · Quick FAQ

What is NFLX's expected move into August 28? About ±$3.25 (±4.1%) around the $80.14 chain snapshot price — a $76.89 to $83.39 range, per straddle pricing as of the August 21 close.

Is NFLX expected to go up or down over the next five days? Options positioning as of August 21 reads neutral — leading positioning is faintly negative, near-dated sentiment faintly positive, and skew has steepened toward puts — but that is a description of what traders have already done, not a forecast. The technical models on both horizons lean lower toward $78.60–$78.90. The actionable map is the $76.89–$83.39 range with $78.44 below and $83–$85 above.

Are NFLX options expensive right now? No. IV rank of 17/100 means option prices are lower than 83% of the past year's readings, and on top of that they are running about 1 vol point below the movement NFLX has actually delivered over the past month — thinner than roughly 59% of this stock's own recent readings. That combination favors owning premium over selling it.

Where is NFLX's biggest options support and resistance? For the August 28 expiration, the put wall is $70 and the call wall is $85. Both are distant; the levels that actually matter inside a five-day window are $78.44 below and the $82–$83 call open-interest shelf above.

What invalidates this week's read? A close above $81.00. That reclaims the short-term moving-average cluster the technical models are leaning on and puts the $82–$83 call shelf back in play.

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Methodology & disclosures. Data: end-of-day options-chain snapshot for NFLX, 2026-08-21, generated 2026-08-23T16:04:33.530Z. Prices shown are midpoints and will differ from live markets. Momentum/positioning scores and volatility-premium comparisons are descriptive measurements of past option flow and past price movement — not investment advice, signals, forecasts, or guarantees. All trade structures are hypothetical. Every structure shown has a defined maximum loss; you can lose the entire max-loss amount. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.