NOK Options Are Pricing a $0.96 Move Into August 21 — Max Pain Sits at $10.50

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The options market implies a $9.80–$11.72 range into the August 21 expiration; here's what's driving it and three defined-risk ways to trade it.

Published Sunday, August 16, 2026 · Data as of the 2026-08-14 close

Explore the live NOK options data in the Detailed Options Analyzer →

Quick answer

Item	Answer
Market bias	Neutral with a bullish tilt
Options-implied range (into Aug 21)	$9.80 – $11.72 (±8.9%)
Major support	$10.50 (max pain; swing support $10.56 just above)
Major resistance	$12.00 (Aug 21 call wall)
Max pain (Aug 21)	$10.50
Dealer gamma regime (estimate)	Positive — hedging tends to dampen moves; flip level ≈ $3 (rough estimate, far below spot)
Volatility condition	Falling over the past month — IV rank 46/100 · premium thin: options priced about 8 vol points below delivered movement (post-earnings distorted)
Technical check	Confirms (bullish, 3-day and 5-day)
Best-fitting strategy	Short put spread below the pin
Analysis invalidated if	NOK closes below $10.45

1 · What matters today

Nokia closed at $10.76 after a violent five-session run of +14.8%, and the options market is pricing roughly a dollar of movement either way over the next five days — a $9.80 to $11.72 range through Friday, August 21. That figure comes from what at-the-money straddles cost: it is the move the options market is paying for, not a target.

Our read of the flow lands neutral with a bullish tilt. Call-side positioning keeps building and put open interest keeps thinning, but the front-week bucket of the chain turned defensive on the final session, which stops the read from being a clean bullish call. The single most important number is $10.50 — max pain for the August 21 expiration, the price where the most option value would expire worthless. A close below $10.45 breaks the setup. The chart models agree with the mild upward lean but expect a far narrower range than options are paying for.

2 · What the options market is pricing

What changed this week

Price did the changing. NOK is up 14.8% over five sessions and 6.9% over twenty, powered by an unfilled gap on August 12 that ran from $9.44 to an open of $10.40. Implied volatility — the market's estimate of how much NOK will move, baked into option prices — barely reacted: at-the-money IV finished at 63.7%, up 1.2% on the day and 0.9% over five sessions, but down 24.6% over thirty days and sitting roughly 15% below both its 30-day (74.6%) and 90-day (74.4%) averages. Rallies that don't bid up option prices are usually rallies the chain considers ordinary for this name.

Positioning followed the price. The put/call open-interest ratio slid from 0.45 to 0.41 over five days, against a 14-day average of 0.45 — for every call contract held open there are now 0.41 puts, and puts are thinning faster than is typical for NOK. Put/call volume printed 0.28 versus a 7-day average of 0.26, so the flow stayed call-heavy, though total option volume ran at just 0.79× its 20-day average — a quiet tape, not a stampede. The biggest single build in open contracts was 45,326 new September 18 $14 calls (74,725 open now) on 4,330 contracts traded, with 24,616 new September 18 $9 puts alongside: both tails, further out, rather than anything anchored to this week. Into Friday's expiration, the settled August 14 $10 calls shed 3,892 contracts as they went off the board deep in the money.

One tension worth naming: the short- and long-term trend reads are pointing different ways. The past week's +14.8% pop sits inside a market that is still down 35.6% over roughly two months. Near-term flow is bullish; the bigger trend is not. That argues for short-dated directional exposure and quick profit-taking rather than anything you intend to hold for weeks.

Expected move

Into August 21, the chain prices a 1σ move of ±8.9%, or about ±$0.96 around the $10.76 close — $9.80 to $11.72.

Expiration	Implied move	Range around $10.76
Fri, Aug 21 (7 DTE)	±8.9%	$9.80 – $11.72
Fri, Aug 28 (14 DTE)	±13.3%	$9.33 – $12.19
Fri, Sep 4 (21 DTE)	±15.1%	$9.13 – $12.39
Fri, Sep 18 (35 DTE)	±20.8%	$8.52 – $13.00

The ladder scales smoothly — roughly with the square root of time, with no step-up between any two rungs. There is no scheduled-event hump anywhere in the covered expirations; the chain is pricing generic volatility, not a date.

Volatility

At-the-money IV of 63.7% carries an IV rank of 46/100 — today's IV is cheaper than 54% of the past year's readings — and an IV percentile of 64, meaning IV closed below today's level on about two-thirds of the past year's sessions. Those two can disagree; together they say "middle of the road, drifting down." The trailing IV-rank averages (45.8 over three days, 45.3 over seven, 49.4 over fourteen) show no fresh compression or expansion. The front-month read is unavailable today — August 14 was itself an expiration date, so the nearest-tenor IV cannot be interpolated.

Realized movement has been heavy in absolute terms: 20-day realized volatility of 71.8%, with 10-day at 61.2% and 30-day at 73.7%. Measured against this stock's own recent history, though, that 20-day figure is running slightly below its norm — 72% is simply what NOK has been delivering lately. Two other readings stand out versus this name's own baseline: the underlying-momentum input is unusually strong, and the pace at which put open interest is draining is well above typical.

Premium rich or cheap? The gap between how much movement options are priced for and how much NOK has actually delivered — the volatility risk premium — is currently negative by about 8 vol points. Options are priced roughly 8 points below the stock's realized movement, a reading richer than only about 20% of this stock's own recent history. On its face that favours owning premium rather than collecting it. But the caveat matters more than the number here: the July 23 earnings report and the sharp late-July slide both still sit inside the 20-day realized-volatility window, which mechanically inflates the realized leg. The premium flipped from +14.6 vol points on July 21 to negative on July 24 and bottomed near −13.8 on August 12 — that flip is a calendar artifact of the gap entering the window, not traders repricing risk. Treat "options look cheap" as an observation, not an edge, and let the bias pick the structure.

Skew and sentiment

Skew — the fact that puts and calls the same distance from the stock price don't cost the same — currently runs the unusual way for NOK. The 25-delta call carries 66.7% IV against 61.7% for the 25-delta put: calls are about 5.1 vol points richer than puts. Traders are paying up for upside, not for crash protection. And that's not new: the 60-day median for this name is −5.2 vol points, so today's reading sits almost exactly on its own norm. There's no complacency signal here, and no fear signal either.

Sentiment in short-dated options is where the split shows. The 0–7d bucket scored −34 on the last session — driven by call open interest dropping 6,227 while puts added 408 in that window — against a 7-day average of +7 for the same bucket. Everything further out leans the other way: +16 in 7–30d, +25 in 30–60d, +32 in 60–120d, a configuration the model labels "Bullish Recovery" — positioning building out along the curve while the immediate week goes defensive. That one-day front-end swing is exactly why the bias arithmetic lands neutral rather than bullish.

The key levels map

Level	Price	Why it matters
Call wall (Aug 21) & chain-wide heaviest call strike	$12.00	59,408 calls open for this Friday; 186,579 across the whole chain — the single biggest overhead anchor
50-day moving average	$11.75	8.4% above the close and still declining — a longer-term ceiling
Top of the implied range (Aug 21)	$11.72	Upper rail of the ±8.9% move
Swing resistance	$11.58	First price-structure resistance cluster above spot
Largest total-gamma strike	$11.00	Heaviest combined gamma across the chain; 49,325 calls open for Aug 21
Chart resistance	$10.87	Upper Bollinger band / recent swing high per the technical model
Last close	$10.76	Reference for every figure above and below
Chart support / swing pivot	$10.56–$10.60	Nearest swing-pivot cluster and the rising short-term EMA
Max pain (Aug 21)	$10.50	Where the most option value expires worthless; expirations sometimes gravitate toward it
Invalidation	$10.45	A close through it breaks both the pin case and the technical structure
Swing support	$10.17	Next structural shelf; top of the Aug 12 gap zone is just below at $10.40
Bottom of the implied range (Aug 21)	$9.80	Lower rail of the ±8.9% move
20-day moving average	$9.63	11.8% below the close — how far the stock has stretched
200-day moving average	$9.37	Close sits 14.9% above it; broader uptrend intact
Chain-wide put wall	$9.00	100,575 puts open across all expirations; heaviest out-of-the-money put strike for Aug 21 too (28,647, with 28,776 at $8.50)
Gamma flip estimate	≈ $3.00	One rough estimate; spot sits far above it, on the side where dealer hedging dampens rather than amplifies

One oddity to flag rather than gloss over: for the August 21 expiration, the heaviest put strike is also $12.00 (30,901 contracts) — in-the-money puts left over from when NOK traded higher, not a floor. That collapses the usual "corridor" arithmetic for this week, which is why the practical downside markers here are the $10.50 max-pain strike and the $9.00/$8.50 out-of-the-money put stacks rather than a put wall beneath the stock.

Positioning and unusual flow

The dealer-gamma read is an estimate, and it points the same way at both scopes: positive across the whole chain and positive for the August 21 expiration on its own. In that regime, market-maker hedging tends to lean against moves rather than chase them — a dampening influence that supports the pin case. The estimated flip level sits near $3, so far below spot that the fragile side of the ledger simply isn't in play this week.

Three flow items worth the ink, all in live contracts:

• August 28 $12 calls — 10,951 contracts traded against 9,620 open, about $197,000 of premium. Turnover above open interest on a strike 11% out of the money means fresh speculation, not roll activity.
• September 4 $11.50 calls — 4,151 traded, open interest up 1,142 to 1,987, roughly $166,000 of premium. New money paying for upside just past the current run.
• August 21 $10.50 puts — 5,089 contracts traded, open interest up 970 to 3,987, about $120,000 of premium. Somebody is defending, or hedging, exactly the max-pain strike into Friday.

3 · Technical check

Both technical timeframes read bullish and both confirm the options-side tilt. The 4-day model targets $10.95 with a $10.48–$11.05 band; the 6-day model targets the same $10.95 within $10.42–$11.12 and names a close below $10.45 as the level that negates the bullish structure. Both reference an initial price of $10.77, within a penny of the options snapshot — no data-date mismatch to worry about.

The strongest supporting read is trend strength: ADX at 49.4 with +DI at 41.9 versus −DI at 9.6 describes an unusually well-established uptrend with buyers firmly in control. The strongest cautionary read is momentum exhaustion: RSI at 74.9 with a fresh bearish MACD crossover, price pinned against the upper Bollinger band. Together those describe a strong trend digesting rather than reversing — which is also, conveniently, what a positive-gamma pin looks like.

Model vs. Market: The options market implies $9.80–$11.72 into August 21; the 5-day technical model targets $10.95 within $10.42–$11.12. The chart model expects roughly a third of the movement the chain is paying for — a gap that resolves either by NOK grinding quietly into the pin zone (the model wins) or by one gap-sized session (the chain wins).

Because the technical band is so much tighter than the implied range, we've shaded the short strikes below inside the expected-move rails rather than at them. That's a deliberate bet on the narrower path, and it is the first thing that goes wrong if NOK moves like it did on August 12.

Full technical write-ups: 3-day report → · 5-day report →

4 · Three ways the next five days can go

If NOK pushes above $11.00 and approaches the call wall ($12.00): the $11.00 strike is the chain's largest gamma cluster and carries 49,325 open calls for Friday alone, so rallies through it tend to slow as hedging flows lean against the move. Above $11.58 the price-structure resistance thins out, but $11.72 (the top of the implied range) and the declining 50-day average at $11.75 stack right on top of each other. Getting through $12.00 in five days would require the kind of gap the chain currently sees as a tail.

If NOK drifts between $10.50 and $11.00: this is the base case the positioning describes. Max pain for Friday sits at $10.50, the estimated dealer-gamma regime for that expiration is positive, and the largest expiring open-interest blocks ($11.00 and $12.00 calls) both sit above the stock and decay in the holder's disfavour. Sideways-to-slightly-higher chop into Friday is what this configuration usually looks like.

If NOK breaks below $10.45: the August 12 gap from $9.44 to $10.40 is unfilled, and there is very little options-side support between $10.17 and the $9.00 strike where 28,647 puts sit open for Friday. The mitigating factor is that spot sits far above the estimated gamma-flip level (~$3), so this rough estimate suggests dealer hedging would still be dampening rather than accelerating any slide — the downside risk here is structural, not mechanical.

5 · Three defined-risk structures

Prices are end-of-day midpoints as of 2026-08-14. All structures are hypothetical. Verify live prices before trading — these will be stale by the open.

If you lean bullish: August 21 $10.50/$10.00 put credit spread

• Trade: Sell the Aug 21 $10.50 put, buy the Aug 21 $10.00 put. You collect a credit up front and keep it if NOK finishes above $10.50.
• Credit: $0.145 · Max profit: $14.50 · Max loss: $35.50 · Break-even: $10.355
• Why it fits: The short strike sits exactly on max pain ($10.50), a penny under the $10.56 swing-pivot support, and the estimated gamma regime for this expiration is positive — the configuration that tends to hold price in rather than push it through. Put open interest is thinning across the chain and the 25-delta skew shows no demand for downside protection.
• Makes sense only if: you believe the pin holds and are content to be paid for sideways.
• Invalidated if: NOK closes below $10.45.
• Health warning: you're selling premium that has not been rich relative to what this stock actually delivers — the implied-versus-realized gap is negative, even if that reading is post-earnings distorted. Size accordingly.
• Managing it: close at ~50% of max credit; exit regardless by Thursday's close rather than carrying expiration-day gamma. With the past week's rally fighting a two-month downtrend, take profits early rather than pressing.
• Liquidity note: the $10.50 puts traded 5¢ wide (about 21% of the mid) on 5,089 contracts; the $10.00 puts are 2¢ wide. Work the order — do not pay the offer on a 14.5¢ credit.
• Analyze this position →

If you expect the range to hold: August 21 $10.00/$10.50/$11.50/$12.00 iron condor

• Trade: Sell the $10.50 put and $11.50 call, buy the $10.00 put and $12.00 call, all expiring Aug 21.
• Credit: $0.22 · Max profit: $22.00 · Max loss: $28.00 · Break-evens: $10.28 and $11.72
• Why it fits: The short strikes bracket the pin zone, the upper break-even lands precisely on the top of the options-implied range, and the short call at $11.50 sits below the $12.00 call wall where 59,408 contracts are open. Both technical models expect a range roughly a third the width of the implied move — this is the structure that gets paid if they're right.
• Makes sense only if: you accept that the short strikes sit inside the ±8.9% implied move. You are betting the pin holds, not merely that the range holds.
• Invalidated if: NOK closes below $10.45 or above $11.58 (the first swing resistance above the short call).
• Managing it: take it off at ~50% of max credit, or close the threatened side and let the other run; do not hold a tested short strike into Friday's close.
• Liquidity note: the $11.50 calls are 2¢ wide and the $12.00 calls 1¢, but the $10.50 puts are 5¢ wide — total slippage on a four-leg fill can eat a fifth of the credit. Enter as a single package order.
• Analyze this position →

If you lean bearish: August 21 $11.00/$12.00 call credit spread

• Trade: Sell the Aug 21 $11.00 call, buy the Aug 21 $12.00 call. You collect a credit and keep it if NOK finishes below $11.00.
• Credit: $0.215 · Max profit: $21.50 · Max loss: $78.50 · Break-even: $11.215
• Why it fits: This is the fade of a vertical run. The short strike is the chain's largest total-gamma strike, the long leg is protected by the $12.00 call wall, max pain sits below spot at $10.50, and short-dated sentiment in the chain turned defensive on the final session. RSI at 74.9 with a fresh bearish MACD cross says the same thing from the chart side.
• Makes sense only if: you're comfortable risking $78.50 to make $21.50 — the payoff ratio is the price of selling a near-the-money strike into a strong uptrend.
• Invalidated if: NOK closes above $11.22 (the break-even) — and unambiguously so above $11.58.
• Managing it: close at ~50% of max credit; because this trades against a bullish short-term trend read, cut it fast if $11.00 is reclaimed on volume rather than hoping for a Friday pin.
• Liquidity note: the $11.00 calls are 2¢ wide on 7,506 contracts traded and 49,325 open; the $12.00 calls are 1¢ wide. This is the cleanest fill of the three.
• Analyze this position →

If none of these: no trade

There's an honest case for sitting this one out. IV rank of 46 is unremarkable, and the one metric that usually decides buy-versus-sell — the gap between priced and delivered movement — is currently unreadable, because the late-July earnings gap and the accompanying slide still sit inside the 20-day realized-volatility window and are mechanically inflating the realized leg. That means the "options look cheap" reading is an artifact, not an edge in either direction. On top of that, NOK has moved 14.8% in five sessions and gapped 10% in a single session four days ago; every structure above has a maximum loss that a repeat of that day would deliver in full. Standing aside until the realized-volatility window clears the gap, or until IV rank moves decisively off the middle, is a legitimate fourth option.

6 · Quick FAQ

What is NOK's expected move this week? ±$0.96 (±8.9%) into the August 21 expiration — a $9.80 to $11.72 range — per the options market's straddle pricing as of the August 14 close.

Is NOK expected to go up or down over the next five days? Options positioning as of August 14 leans neutral with a bullish tilt — call open interest is building while puts thin, but the front-week bucket of the chain turned defensive on the last session. That's a read of what traders have already done, not a forecast. The actionable map is the $9.80–$11.72 range with $10.50 as the pin and $12.00 as the overhead wall.

Are NOK options expensive right now? IV rank 46/100 says option prices are higher than 46% of the past year's readings — squarely mid-range. On top of that they're running about 8 vol points below the movement NOK has actually delivered, thinner than roughly 80% of this stock's own recent readings. Normally that favours owning premium; here it is largely an artifact of the late-July earnings gap still sitting inside the 20-day realized window, so treat it as neutral rather than an edge.

Where is NOK's biggest options support and resistance? For the August 21 expiration, the call wall is $12.00 (59,408 contracts) and the max-pain magnet is $10.50; the heaviest out-of-the-money put strikes that week are $9.00 and $8.50, and chain-wide the put wall sits at $9.00 with 100,575 contracts.

What invalidates this read? A close below $10.45. That takes out the pin zone, the short-term moving-average support, and the technical model's own invalidation level in one move.

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Methodology & disclosures. Data: end-of-day options-chain snapshot for NOK, 2026-08-14, generated 2026-08-16T18:53:05.124Z. Prices shown are midpoints and will differ from live markets. Momentum/positioning scores and volatility-premium comparisons are descriptive measurements of past option flow and past price movement — not investment advice, signals, forecasts, or guarantees. Earnings dates and reported results are from the data provider's earnings feed as of 2026-08-16T18:53:05.124Z; report dates can change. All trade structures are hypothetical. Every structure shown has a defined maximum loss; you can lose the entire max-loss amount. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.