QBTS Options Are Pricing a ±$3.16 Swing by August 7 — Our Read Leans Higher, Barely

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The options market implies a $14.90–$21.22 range into the August 7 expiration; here's what's driving that number and three defined-risk ways to trade the next six days.

Published Saturday, August 1, 2026 · Data as of the July 31 close

Explore the live QBTS options data in the Detailed Options Analyzer →

Quick answer

Item	Answer
Market bias	Slightly bullish
Options-implied range (into Aug 7)	$14.90 – $21.22 (±17.5%)
Major support	$17.50 (Aug 7 put wall and max pain)
Major resistance	$19.00 (Aug 7 call wall)
Max pain (Aug 7)	$17.50
Dealer gamma regime (estimate)	Positive for the Aug 7 expiration — hedging tends to dampen moves; the chain-wide flip estimate sits far above spot near $35
Volatility condition	Rising — IV rank 30/100 · premium thin: options priced about 7.5 vol points below delivered movement (earnings-inflated front week)
Next earnings	August 6, before market open — one day before the Aug 7 expiration
Technical check	Confirms (bullish at both the 3-day and 6-day horizons)
Best-fitting strategy	Aug 7 $18/$20 call debit spread
Analysis invalidated if	QBTS closes below $17.50

1 · What matters today

QBTS closed at $18.08 on Thursday after an 11.3% run over five sessions, and our read of options flow leans modestly higher into the August 7 expiration — the flow has been call-tilted, downside protection has been coming off, and puts and calls the same distance from spot no longer cost the same: calls are the expensive side. The map is narrow. The heaviest pile of open call contracts for that expiration sits at $19.00, and the heaviest pile of puts sits at $17.50, which is also where the most option value would expire worthless. Between those two strikes is where positioning wants price to stay. The options market itself is pricing a much wilder outcome — roughly $14.90 to $21.22 — because the August 6 earnings report (before the open) and Friday's July employment report both land inside the last 48 hours of this window. Two independent technical models also lean bullish. A close below $17.50 ends this read.

2 · What the options market is pricing

What changed this week

The single biggest shift is in who is holding what. Put open interest relative to calls fell from 0.95 to 0.80 over five sessions — for every call contract held open there are now 0.80 puts, against a 14-day average of 0.91 — meaning traders retired downside protection rather than adding it. Put/call volume told the same story: 0.31 on Thursday, versus a 3-day average of 0.42 and a 14-day average of 0.50. That's a call-heavy tape by this stock's own standard, and the day's call-side sweeps cleared the unusual bar seven times with zero on the put side.

Implied volatility — the market's estimate of how much QBTS will move, baked into option prices — ticked up 3.5% on the day and 2.1% over five sessions to 101.6%, essentially in line with its own 30-day and 90-day averages, so the IV move is a nudge rather than a regime change. Total option volume was ordinary: 0.97× its 20-day average.

The tension worth naming: the short- and long-term trend reads point different ways. Over the past week price is up 11.3% and our flow composite has flipped hard positive; over the past month price is still down 19.8%, and QBTS trades 19.7% under its 50-day moving average and 21.9% under its 200-day. This is a fast counter-trend bounce inside a broken tape, which is why the structures below are short-dated and managed early rather than held for a trend.

Expected move

Into the August 7 expiration, the options market is pricing a move of about ±17.5%, or roughly ±$3.16 around $18.06 — that figure comes from what at-the-money straddles cost, i.e. the price of owning both a call and a put at the money. That maps to a $14.90–$21.22 range.

Expiration	Implied move	Range around $18.06
Fri, Aug 7 (7 DTE)	±17.5%	$14.90 – $21.22
Fri, Aug 14 (14 DTE)	±21.5%	$14.18 – $21.94
Fri, Aug 21 (21 DTE)	±23.6%	$13.79 – $22.33
Fri, Aug 28 (28 DTE)	±28.3%	$12.96 – $23.16

The dollar ranges widen with time, as they must, but the rate at which they widen is the tell: doubling the calendar from 7 to 14 days buys only 4 extra points of implied move, because the first rung is carrying most of the event premium by itself.

Volatility

At-the-money IV is 101.6% with an IV rank of 30/100 — today's reading is cheaper than about 70% of the past year's readings, even though 101.6% sounds enormous in absolute terms. That's simply what this name's baseline looks like. The front-month interpolated read is unavailable today (Thursday's chain had a same-day expiration), so use the per-expiration table instead: the August 7 rung prints 126.2% IV, against 98.6% at August 21 and 96.8% at September 18. The shortest-dated options are the most expensive on the board — a shape that shows up when the market is bracing for dated events rather than a general rise in fear.

Two "vs its own norm" readings stand out — both comparisons against QBTS's own recent history, not the broader market. Realized movement over the last five sessions is running about 1.8× its own 20-day pace, an unusually fast acceleration even for this stock. And the strength of the recent price push registers well above its own norm. Neither says anything about direction; they say the tape has gotten violent.

Premium rich or cheap. The gap between how much movement options are priced for and how much QBTS has actually delivered is currently negative: at-the-money IV of 101.6% sits about 7.5 vol points below 20-day realized volatility of 109.2%. Option sellers have recently been collecting less than realized movement cost them. On a percentile basis that gap sits around the 42nd percentile of this stock's own recent readings — middle of the road, tilted slightly to the cheap side. The path matters more than the level here: this gap was running +30 to +43 vol points rich in mid-July and flipped negative on July 30. That flip is mechanical, not a signal — the enormous late-July gap days (+10.2% on July 27, −4.4% the next session, +3.8% on July 30) rolled into the 20-day realized window and dragged realized volatility above implied. And with the August 6 report five days out, some of the front week's 126% IV is the market pre-pricing a scheduled event, not free premium in either direction. Net: this is a week to own defined premium rather than sell it, and not a week to treat either side of the rich/cheap comparison as an edge.

Earnings on the calendar

QBTS reports on Thursday, August 6, before the market open, with a consensus estimate of a $0.12 loss per share. That lands after every currently tradeable expiration except August 7 — which is exactly why the August 7 rung carries 126% IV while the August 21 rung carries 98.6%. The most expensive options on the board are also the shortest, and the report is the reason. On history, in dollar terms: the May 12 report came in at a $0.04 loss against an expected $0.08 loss, while the February 26 report came in at a $0.12 loss against an expected $0.05 loss.

The editor's calendar also stacks macro releases into this window: Monday, August 3: ISM Manufacturing PMI and construction spending — 10:00 a.m.; Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Survey — 2:00 p.m.; Treasury financing estimates — 3:00 p.m. Tuesday, August 4: U.S. international trade balance — 8:30 a.m.; JOLTS job openings and factory orders — 10:00 a.m. Wednesday, August 5: ADP private-employment report — 8:15 a.m.; Treasury quarterly refunding announcement — 8:30 a.m.; ISM Services PMI — 10:00 a.m.; EIA crude-oil inventories — 10:30 a.m. Thursday, August 6: Initial jobless claims and second-quarter productivity/unit labor costs — 8:30 a.m.; wholesale inventories and sales — 10:00 a.m. Friday, August 7: July employment report—nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate and wage growth — 8:30 a.m. The payrolls print lands on expiration morning itself, stacked one day behind the earnings report — which is the mundane explanation for the front week's inverted, front-loaded IV curve.

Skew and sentiment

Normally, puts and calls the same distance from the stock price don't cost the same, and puts are the pricier side because traders pay up for crash protection. Not here: 25-delta call IV is 104.0% against 99.9% on the put side — calls cost about 4.1 vol points more than puts. Against this name's own 60-day median of −3.6 vol points, that's marginally more call-tilted than usual; measured against the last three sessions' average of −7.8 vol points, it has actually cooled off. Either way, the demand is on the upside. The put-side skew has also flattened by about 3.5 vol points over five sessions — protection bleeding off.

Sentiment across the curve is what our read calls a bullish-recovery shape: the 0–7d bucket scores +27, the 7–30d bucket is flat at −2, the 30–60d bucket +19, and the 60–120d bucket +47. Positioning is building further out rather than only in the front week, and the 7-day average of those buckets is positive across the board. Our flow composite is +41 today against a 7-day average of +9 and a 14-day average of −8 — this is a sharp two-week turn, not a settled stance, so treat it as fresh rather than durable.

The key levels map

Level	Price	Why it matters
200-day moving average	$23.14	21.9% above the close — the long-term trend line is nowhere near in play
50-day moving average	$22.51	19.7% overhead; the medium-term trend is still down
Top of options-implied range (Aug 7)	$21.22	A one-standard-deviation up move through expiration
Swing resistance	$20.93	Prior pivot cluster from the July breakdown
Whole-chain heaviest strike	$20.00	16,282 calls and 22,101 puts open across all expirations, plus the largest gamma pile — a magnet strike further out, not the Aug 7 wall
Swing resistance	$19.54	Nearest structural resistance above spot
Aug 7 call wall	$19.00	2,651 calls open — the heaviest call strike for this expiration; the ceiling that matters this week
20-day moving average	$18.48	2.2% overhead; first mean-reversion line
Spot / swing support	$18.06 – $18.02	Chain snapshot price and the tightest swing-pivot cluster below it
Swing support	$17.74	Second pivot cluster; also the technical models' fast-average support zone
Aug 7 put wall / max pain	$17.50	1,252 puts open (998 of them added in a single session) and the strike where the most Aug 7 option value expires worthless
Swing support	$17.11	First real air pocket below the put wall
Swing support	$16.02 / $15.35	Late-July reaction lows
Bottom of options-implied range (Aug 7)	$14.90	A one-standard-deviation down move through expiration
Gamma flip estimate (chain-wide)	≈ $35	One rough estimate, built on an assumed dealer sign convention — spot sits unusually far below it for this name; read as a caution flag, not a level
52-week low	$12.75	41.8% below; the range floor of the last year

Note the disagreement: the August 7 expiration's own walls are $19.00 and $17.50, while the whole chain aggregated across all expirations piles up at $20.00 on both sides. For this week, use $19.00 and $17.50.

Positioning and unusual flow

One rough estimate of market-maker positioning reads positive for the August 7 expiration, meaning hedging flows in that regime tend to dampen moves and pull price toward the heavy strikes rather than amplify swings. The same estimate computed across the whole chain places its flip level up near $35, far above spot — on that estimate's own convention, that is the side where hedging amplifies selling. The two readings disagree; the per-expiration one is what governs this week, and both are estimates rather than observed dealer inventory.

Three flow items stand out, all in live contracts:

• Sep 18 $24 calls: 1,548 contracts traded against 981 open, roughly $143,000 of premium and the top of its peer group — someone reaching for upside two-and-a-half months out, well above every wall on the board.
• Aug 7 $17.50 puts: open interest jumped 998 contracts in one session to 1,252. That single build is this week's put wall — protection bought precisely at the max-pain strike, ahead of the report.
• Aug 14 $18 puts: 314 contracts traded on just 74 open — 4.2× turnover. A hedge going up in the expiration that starts the day after earnings.

For retrospective context: into Friday's expiration, the July 31 $19 calls traded 7,364 contracts and added 1,885 of open interest on the final day before settling out of the money. That is history, not a live level.

3 · Technical check

Both technical reports lean bullish and both confirm the options read. The 3-day model (target date August 4) points to $18.40 with a $17.55–$18.55 range, citing a fresh fast-over-slow moving-average crossover, MACD holding positive, and rising trend strength with bulls in control. The 6-day model (target date August 7) points to $18.55 with a $17.20–$18.90 range and the same structural read. Both flag the same caution I'd flag from the flow: money-flow readings have stayed mildly negative through the bounce, which is consistent with a technical/short-covering rebound rather than heavy accumulation. Both note the primary trend is still down below the 50- and 200-day averages.

Usefully, the 6-day model's invalidation level is a close back below $17.50 — the same strike as the August 7 put wall and max pain. When an independent price model and the option chain land on the same line, that line is the one to watch.

Model vs. Market: The options market implies $14.90–$21.22 into August 7; the 6-day technical model targets $18.55 inside a $17.20–$18.90 range. The technical range is barely a quarter as wide, because a chart model extrapolates from delivered price behavior while the chain is explicitly paying up for an overnight earnings gap and a payrolls print on expiration morning. If you think the report passes quietly, the option market is overpaying; if it doesn't, the chart range is fiction.

The TA didn't flip the bias — it was already leaning higher — but it did shade strike selection: the long call spread below is anchored at the money rather than out at the $19 wall, because both models see the practical ceiling near $18.90, not above it.

Full technical write-ups: 3-day report → · 6-day report →

4 · Three ways the next six days can go

If QBTS pushes above the Aug 7 call wall ($19.00): the heaviest call open interest for the week sits right there, and strikes with that much open interest tend to slow rallies as hedging flows lean against the move. A clean close through it leaves comparatively thin positioning until $20.00, where the whole chain's largest open-interest and gamma pile sits. That combination — thin air then a heavy magnet — is what a squeeze into expiration looks like on the positioning map.

If QBTS drifts between the walls ($17.50–$19.00): this is the base case the chain is built for. Max pain for August 7 is $17.50, slightly below spot, so the pin gravity in this branch pulls gently down rather than up, and the positive per-expiration gamma estimate suggests hedging flows dampen rather than amplify what movement does occur. The catch: the August 6 report sits inside this branch, and pin behavior has no defense against an overnight gap.

If QBTS breaks below the put wall ($17.50): the next structural rest stops are $17.11, then $16.02 and $15.35, with the bottom of the implied range at $14.90. Worth noting for this branch: on the chain-wide estimate, spot sits unusually far below the estimated flip level for this name — on that estimate's convention, the side where market-maker hedging amplifies selling rather than cushioning it. Treat that as a rough estimate of fragility, not a measured level.

5 · Three defined-risk structures

Prices are end-of-day midpoints as of July 31. All structures are hypothetical. Verify live prices before trading — these will be stale by the open. Because implied volatility has been running below what QBTS has actually delivered, the long-premium structure leads this week.

If you lean bullish: Aug 7 $18/$20 call debit spread

• Trade: Buy the Aug 7 $18 call, sell the Aug 7 $20 call. (A debit spread: you pay up front, and you're betting on a move up to and through the higher strike by expiration.)
• Debit: $0.76 · Max profit: $124 · Max loss: $76 · Break-even: $18.76
• Why it fits: it matches the bias without selling premium that hasn't been rich lately — implied volatility sits about 7.5 vol points below 20-day realized movement. The short strike at $20.00 sits above the $19.00 Aug 7 call wall, at the whole chain's heaviest magnet strike, so the position captures the wall break rather than fighting it.
• Makes sense only if: you want defined upside exposure through an earnings gap and accept that a quiet, pinned week loses money to time decay.
• Invalidated if: QBTS closes below $17.50.
• Earnings exposure: spans the August 6 report — premium is inflated for that reason, and the position can gap straight through either strike overnight. Max loss remains $76.
• Managing it: because the past week's push is fighting a 19.8% one-month decline, take profits early rather than holding for the full spread width — close at roughly 60–70% of maximum value if it's reached before Thursday's report, and decide before Wednesday's close whether you want the gap risk at all.
• Liquidity note: the $18 calls quoted 16¢ wide ($1.21/$1.37, about 12% of mark) and the $20 calls 8¢ wide ($0.49/$0.57) — both wider than the 5%-of-mark bar we prefer, so use limit orders and expect to work the fill. Both were among the heaviest dollar-premium contracts of the expiration.
• Analyze this position →

If you expect the range to hold: Aug 7 $15/$16/$21/$22 iron condor

• Trade: Sell the $16 put and buy the $15 put; sell the $21 call and buy the $22 call, all Aug 7. (A credit structure: you collect premium up front and keep it if price finishes between the short strikes.)
• Credit: $0.35 · Max profit: $35 · Max loss: $65 · Break-evens: $15.65 and $21.35
• Why it fits: the short strikes sit outside the $17.50/$19.00 wall corridor and just inside the implied-range rails, and the per-expiration gamma estimate reads positive — the regime where hedging flows tend to dampen movement.
• Health warning: you're selling premium that hasn't been rich lately — implied volatility is running below realized, and the extra premium in this expiration exists because of a scheduled report, not because volatility is generally overpriced.
• Makes sense only if: you specifically want to be short the earnings gap and are sized for it. Note the lower break-even of $15.65 sits inside the implied range low of $14.90 — a one-standard-deviation down move breaks this trade.
• Invalidated if: QBTS closes through either short strike ($16.00 or $21.00).
• Earnings exposure: spans the August 6 report and Friday's payrolls print — the premium is inflated for exactly that reason, and both wings can be blown through overnight for the full $65.
• Managing it: close at ~50% of max credit if it comes quickly; otherwise flatten before Wednesday's close rather than carrying the report. If either short strike is breached, close instead of hoping for a reversal.
• Liquidity note: the $15 puts traded 3¢ wide ($0.17/$0.20) on 917 contracts and the $22 calls 3¢ wide; the $16 puts are the loose leg at 11¢ wide ($0.37/$0.48, ~26% of mark) — that leg alone can eat a fifth of the credit on a sloppy fill.
• Analyze this position →

If you lean bearish: Aug 7 $18/$17 put debit spread

• Trade: Buy the Aug 7 $18 put, sell the Aug 7 $17 put. (You pay up front and profit as price falls toward and through the lower strike.)
• Debit: $0.52 · Max profit: $48.50 · Max loss: $51.50 · Break-even: $17.49
• Why it fits: it's the cleanest expression of the max-pain and put-wall case. Max pain for this expiration is $17.50 — below spot — and the break-even sits right on it, so the pin scenario itself is roughly a scratch and anything below it pays. It also respects the 19.8% one-month decline that the last week's bounce is fighting.
• Makes sense only if: you read the bounce as short-covering rather than accumulation — the technical reports' persistently negative money-flow readings support that interpretation.
• Invalidated if: QBTS closes above $19.00 (the Aug 7 call wall).
• Earnings exposure: spans the August 6 report; it can gap through both strikes to maximum value or to zero overnight, and the option premium already reflects that possibility.
• Managing it: this is a 1:0.94 risk/reward, so it needs a high hit rate — take it off at roughly 70% of max value, and exit at Friday's open rather than letting expiration-day payrolls volatility decide it.
• Liquidity note: the $18 puts quoted 18¢ wide ($1.13/$1.31) and the $17 puts 7¢ wide ($0.67/$0.74, about 10% of mark) on 217 contracts — workable, but again wider than our 5% bar.
• Analyze this position →

If none of these: no trade

There is a clean case for standing aside this week, and it isn't about the direction. Every currently tradeable expiration spans the August 6 earnings report, and the one this article is anchored to also spans a payrolls print on expiration morning. Credit structures are the wrong tool because the extra premium isn't a volatility mispricing to harvest — implied volatility is actually running about 7.5 vol points below what QBTS has delivered, and the front week's 126% IV exists because of a dated event. Debit structures are the right shape but they're paying for that same event. If your edge is premium selling, the honest read is that this week doesn't offer it; the more attractive setup is the week after the report, once the event premium bleeds out and the realized-volatility window starts normalizing. Waiting costs nothing but the trade you didn't take.

6 · Quick FAQ

What is QBTS's expected move through August 7? About ±17.5%, or ±$3.16 around $18.06 — a $14.90 to $21.22 range, per the options market's straddle pricing as of the July 31 close.

Is QBTS expected to go up or down over the next six days? Options positioning as of July 31 leans slightly bullish — call-tilted volume, put open interest thinning from 0.95 to 0.80 against calls, and calls priced about 4 vol points above equidistant puts — but that's a read of what traders have done, not a forecast. The actionable map is the $14.90–$21.22 range and the $17.50/$19.00 levels.

Are QBTS options expensive right now? Two lenses. An IV rank of 30/100 says option prices are lower than 70% of the past year's readings. On top of that, they're running about 7.5 vol points below the movement QBTS has actually delivered over 20 days — a gap that sits around the 42nd percentile of this stock's own recent readings. That combination favors owning defined premium over selling it, with one caveat: the August 7 expiration's 126% IV is inflated because the August 6 report sits inside it, so don't read it as an edge in either direction.

When is QBTS's next earnings report? August 6, before market open — after every other tradeable expiration but before August 7, which is precisely why the August 7 rung prices 126% implied volatility against 98.6% at August 21.

Where is QBTS's biggest options support and resistance? For the August 7 expiration: the put wall is $17.50 (1,252 contracts) and the call wall is $19.00 (2,651 contracts). Across the whole chain the heaviest strike is $20.00 on both sides — a further-out magnet, not this week's level.

What invalidates this read? A close below $17.50.

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Methodology & disclosures. Data: end-of-day options-chain snapshot for QBTS, 2026-07-31, generated 2026-08-01T18:26:21Z. Prices shown are midpoints and will differ from live markets. Momentum/positioning scores and volatility-premium comparisons are descriptive measurements of past option flow and past price movement — not investment advice, signals, forecasts, or guarantees. Earnings dates and reported results are from the data provider's earnings feed as of 2026-08-01T18:26:21Z; report dates can change. All trade structures are hypothetical. Every structure shown has a defined maximum loss; you can lose the entire max-loss amount. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.