QBTS Options Are Pricing a ±12% Move by August 28 — Our Technical Read Only Sees the Top Third

The options market implies a $16.50–$21.10 range into the August 28 expiration; here's what's driving it, where the levels sit, and three defined-risk ways to trade it.

Published Saturday, August 22, 2026 · Data as of the August 21 close · Export generated August 22, 2026

Explore the live QBTS options data in the Detailed Options Analyzer →

Quick answer

Item	Answer
Market bias	Neutral
Options-implied range (into Aug 28)	$16.50 – $21.10 (±12.2%)
Major support	$19.00 — the Aug 28 expiration's own put wall
Major resistance	$21.00 — heaviest near-money Aug 28 call strike (the expiration's true call wall sits far above at $25)
Max pain (Aug 28)	$20.00
Dealer gamma regime (estimate)	Split: the Aug 28 expiration alone estimates negative (hedging tends to amplify moves); the whole chain combined estimates positive, with a flip level roughly at $8 — far below anything in play
Volatility condition	Falling over the month — IV rank 11/100 · premium thin: options priced roughly 37 vol points below the movement QBTS has actually delivered (realized leg inflated by the August 6 earnings gap)
Technical check	Mixed (bullish, 3-day and 6-day horizons; targets land inside the options band but only in its top third)
Best-fitting strategy	Long $19/$20/$21 call butterfly expiring Aug 28 — a cheap, defined-risk bet on a pin near max pain
Analysis invalidated if	QBTS closes below $19.00

1 · What matters today

The options market's read on QBTS is, honestly, flat. Our five-input positioning composite lands within a point or two of dead centre: a leading positioning read that turned put-heavy, momentum that flipped negative in the last three sessions, and short-dated sentiment that leans mildly the other way all cancel out. What the chain does give you is a map. Options are pricing a ±12.2% move into the August 28 expiration — roughly $2.30 on the chain's $18.80 snapshot price — with the most option value expiring worthless at $20, the heaviest put open interest at $19, and no meaningful call barrier until $21. Implied volatility sits at 82%, an IV rank of 11 out of 100, meaning option prices are cheaper than 89% of the past year's readings. The technical models lean bullish, which nudges strike selection higher but does not change the read. A close below $19 breaks the map.

2 · What the options market is pricing

A note on two prices

This file carries two closes that are unusually far apart today: the price recorded alongside the options-chain snapshot is $18.80, while the official daily close printed $20.39. Everything chain-derived below — walls, max pain, moneyness, the expected-move ranges — is anchored to $18.80, as it must be. Everything about price structure — moving averages, the 52-week range, swing levels — uses $20.39. That is a vendor-timing artefact, not an error, but it matters for you in one practical way: every midpoint quoted in the trade section was recorded against an $18.80 underlying and will be materially stale by the open. Verify live.

What changed this week

The chain-basis price fell 11.2% over the five sessions into the snapshot, even though it is still up 15.9% over the trailing month. Put activity picked up hard: put volume ran at 0.84 contracts for every call, against a 14-day average of 0.54 and a 60-day median near 0.47 — one of the more put-tilted single days this stock has produced versus its own norm. Standing positions tell the opposite story, though: put open interest is 0.66 per call contract, down from a 14-day average of 0.77, so the money already parked in the chain keeps drifting call-side even as the day's flow buys downside. Total option volume was quiet at 78% of its 20-day average, and the snapshot registered no measurable day-over-day change in open interest at all — so this week's story is a flow story, not a new-positioning story.

Volatility kept bleeding: at-the-money IV of 81.6% is 12.8% below its 30-day average and 14.4% lower than a month ago, though it jumped 12.9% in the single session into the snapshot. Momentum tells the sharpest story — our flow composite reads −33 today with a three-day average of −22, against a seven-day average of +9. Flow turned decisively defensive in the last three sessions after two mildly constructive weeks.

The trend horizons disagree with each other, and that tension is the honest summary of this week. Over the past week the read is bearish (price −11.2% on the chain basis); over the past month it is bullish (+15.9%); over the past ten weeks it is bearish again (−17.9%). A recent momentum crossover on August 20 turned the short-term read from bullish to bearish. Near-term flow and the bigger trend are pointing different ways, which argues for shorter-dated structures and earlier profit-taking rather than anything you have to hold for a month.

Expected move

The expected move is the move the options market is pricing in — derived from what straddles cost. Into August 28, that is ±12.2%, or about ±$2.30 around the $18.80 chain snapshot.

Expiration	Implied move	Range around $18.80
Fri, Aug 28 (7 days)	±12.2%	$16.50 – $21.10
Fri, Sep 4 (14 days)	±16.6%	$15.68 – $21.92
Fri, Sep 11 (21 days)	±17.9%	$15.43 – $22.17
Fri, Sep 18 (28 days)	±22.5%	$14.58 – $23.02

The rungs widen roughly in line with the square root of time, with a small dip in priced volatility at the September 11 rung and a bump back up at September 18 — there is no event hump in this ladder, just ordinary term noise. If you prefer to re-centre the same ±12.2% on the official $20.39 close, the equivalent band is roughly $17.90 – $22.90.

Volatility

At-the-money implied volatility — the market's estimate of how much QBTS will move, baked into option prices — is 81.6%. IV rank is 11/100, which means today's reading is cheaper than 89% of the past year's; the percentile measure is even lower at 9. Both the 30-day (93.6%) and 90-day (100.8%) averages sit well above spot IV. One caveat worth knowing: an IV rank of 11 is actually higher than this stock's own recent norm — the trailing seven-day average IV rank is about 3. Front-month IV and the term-structure slope are unavailable today because the nearest expiration was a same-day expiry; that reading returns on the next trading day.

On the realized side, the stock has been decelerating relative to itself: five-day realized volatility is running at about 0.72× the 20-day pace, a touch below this name's own norm. The stock has been moving less lately than its own recent month would suggest.

Premium rich or cheap. The volatility risk premium — the gap between how much movement options are priced for and how much QBTS has actually delivered — is deeply negative: about 37 vol points below realized movement. Percentile-wise that sits at 21 out of 100 against this stock's own recent readings, meaning only about a fifth of recent sessions have shown an even thinner premium. Normally that combination — IV rank 11 and a 21st-percentile premium — is a clean "own premium, don't sell it" verdict, and it does argue for debit structures over credit ones this week. But be careful how much weight you put on the size of the gap: the 20-day realized leg is 119% annualised, and it contains the 13.8% down gap that accompanied the August 6 earnings report. That gap mechanically inflates realized volatility for another couple of weeks, which means part of the apparent cheapness is arithmetic rather than opportunity. The gap flipped from positive to negative around July 30 and has stayed there since, so the direction of the signal is real — its magnitude is overstated.

Skew and sentiment

Skew measures the fact that puts and calls the same distance from the stock price don't cost the same. Here, 25-delta calls are priced at 80.1% IV against 79.0% for 25-delta puts — calls are about 1.1 vol points richer than puts, which is unusual for any equity and reflects how much upside chase this name attracts. The relevant comparison is against its own baseline: the 60-day median gap is 3.7 vol points of call richness. So relative to its norm, the put side has firmed by roughly 2.6 vol points over the past couple of months. Traders haven't started paying up for crash protection outright, but they have stopped paying quite so aggressively for upside.

Sentiment across the curve is mixed, and the file labels it exactly that. The shortest bucket (0–7 days) reads strongly call-tilted, but it is built from a very thin set of contracts and deserves little weight; the 7–30 day and 30–60 day buckets both lean mildly put-side, and the longest bucket leans back call-side. Set against 14-day averages that were broadly constructive across every bucket, the near-dated tone has cooled.

The key levels map

Level	Price	Why it matters
Call wall (Aug 28) & whole-chain call wall	$25.00	2,618 calls open at this strike for Aug 28, 22,048 across the whole chain — the biggest pile of call contracts anywhere, but far outside this week's implied range
200-day moving average	$22.01	Close sits 7.4% below it — the long-term structure is still broken
Second-heaviest near-money call strike (Aug 28)	$22.00	984 contracts open; the first real overhead cluster past the range top
Top of the Aug 28 implied range	$21.10	Where the options market prices a 1σ up move ending
Heaviest in-range call strike (Aug 28)	$21.00	846 contracts open; the practical resistance strike for the week
Swing-pivot resistance (estimate)	$20.93	Heuristic level from recent pivot clustering — treat as approximate
50-day moving average	$20.62	Close is 1.1% below; the technical models flag this as the wall to clear
Official close, Aug 21	$20.39	Price-structure reference (see the two-price note above)
Max pain (Aug 28) · largest gamma strike · whole-chain put wall	$20.00	Triple duty: the price where the most option value expires worthless, the strike with the most total gamma in the chain, and 29,285 puts open across all expirations — the gravitational centre of this week
20-day moving average	$19.74	Close is 3.3% above it
Swing support (estimate)	$19.54	First heuristic support shelf below the close
Put wall (Aug 28)	$19.00	2,567 puts open — the biggest pile of put contracts at this expiration; the level that breaks the thesis
Chain-snapshot spot	$18.80	Anchor for every strike, wall and expected-move figure above
Swing support (estimate)	$18.02	Next shelf down, near the August 20 low area
Bottom of the Aug 28 implied range	$16.50	Where the options market prices a 1σ down move ending
Gamma flip level (rough estimate)	≈ $8.00	One rough estimate of where market-maker hedging would start amplifying selling — nowhere near in play

Positioning and unusual flow

Market makers hedge the options they've sold, and the direction of that hedging depends on their inventory. Two estimates disagree here, and it matters which one you apply. Scoped to the August 28 expiration alone, the estimated dealer gamma is negative — in that regime, hedging tends to amplify moves rather than cushion them, which is the read that applies to this week. Aggregated across every expiration, the estimate flips positive, with a rough flip level near $8 that no realistic path reaches. Both figures are estimates built on an assumed dealer sign convention, not observed inventory. The practical translation: expect the week's expiring contracts to add a little fuel to a directional break rather than dampen it, while the broader chain still leans toward pinning.

Three flow items stand out, none of them from expired contracts. The single biggest premium print outside the settled week was in the October 16 $20 puts — 1,630 contracts against 19,430 already open, about $363,000 of premium changing hands at the strike that is also the whole chain's put wall. Second, the September 18 $22 calls traded 1,561 contracts against 7,138 open, roughly $183,000 of premium, keeping the upside chase alive one month out. Third, and more telling for near-term direction, the September 18 $17 puts traded 355 contracts against zero prior open interest — a brand-new downside position rather than a roll. Inside our own expiration, the August 28 $20.50 calls turned over 201 contracts against 130 open and the $19 calls 290 against 247 — moderate two-way interest right around max pain, not a directional stampede.

3 · Technical check

Both technical reports are bullish and both were generated on August 22, so they are fresh. The 3-day model targets $20.85 by August 25 with a $19.65–$21.15 band; the 6-day model targets $20.95 by August 28 with a $19.55–$21.35 band. Their reasoning is momentum-based: a fresh MACD crossover, ADX at 39.8 with the positive directional line dominant, money-flow readings that swung from distribution to accumulation, and RSI recovering from 28 to 63 — while acknowledging that price remains below both the 50-day ($20.62) and 200-day ($22.01) averages, making this a relief rally inside a larger downtrend rather than a confirmed reversal.

Classified against the options read, this is Mixed. The technical direction leans bullish where the options positioning read is flat, so it doesn't confirm the bias — but it doesn't contradict it either, because the entire technical band fits inside the options-implied range. Note the reference-price mismatch: both technical reports anchor to the $20.39 official close, while the chain snapshot sits at $18.80. That is the same two-price artefact described above, and it is the main reason the technical band looks displaced upward relative to the options band.

Model vs. Market: The options market implies $16.50–$21.10 into August 28; the 6-day technical model targets $20.95 within a $19.55–$21.35 band. In other words, the technical model has priced out the bottom two-thirds of what options are still paying for. If the technicians are right, every put below $18 in that expiration expires worthless — which is exactly why the cheap-premium picture matters more than the direction call this week.

Practical effect on strikes below: the technical read shades the neutral structure's body toward $20 rather than $19, and it is the reason the bullish structure gets a full section rather than a footnote.

Full technical write-ups: 3-day report → · 6-day report →

4 · Three ways the next six days can go

If QBTS pushes above $21: the first genuine call cluster in this expiration sits at $21 (846 contracts) and then $22 (984), with nothing heavy until the $25 call wall. That is a thin overhead structure by this stock's standards — the positioning that normally slows a rally simply isn't stacked between $21 and $25. A clean move through $21.10, the top of the implied range, would leave price in territory where hedging flows offer little resistance, and where the negative gamma estimate for this expiration argues that dealer hedging chases rather than fades the move.

If QBTS drifts between the walls: this is the base case the numbers describe. Max pain for August 28 is $20 — the price at which the most option value expires worthless — and $20 is simultaneously the largest total-gamma strike in the chain and the whole chain's put wall. Expirations sometimes gravitate toward that kind of confluence, and the corridor between the $19 put wall and the $21 call cluster is only about 10% wide against a 12.2% implied move. Time decay does most of the work in this branch.

If QBTS breaks below $19: that is the expiration's put wall giving way, and it is the level that kills this article's read. Below it the heuristic support shelves thin out to $18.02, then $17.74, and the implied range bottom sits at $16.50. Spot currently sits unusually far above the rough gamma-flip estimate for this name — further than at almost any point in its recent history — so the classic "hedging accelerates the selling" mechanism is not in play; the risk here is simply that the negative gamma estimate for this specific expiration means expiring-contract hedging leans with the move instead of against it.

5 · Three defined-risk structures

Prices are end-of-day midpoints as of the August 21 chain snapshot, recorded against an $18.80 underlying while the official close printed $20.39. All structures are hypothetical. These midpoints will be badly stale by the open — verify live prices before trading, and expect the debits below to be higher.

Premium is thin rather than rich this week, so debit structures lead. All three below are defined-debit trades: your maximum loss is what you pay, and you are buying options at an IV rank of 11.

If you expect the range to hold: long $19/$20/$21 call butterfly (Aug 28)

• Trade: Buy one Aug 28 $19 call, sell two Aug 28 $20 calls, buy one Aug 28 $21 call
• Debit: $0.13 · Max profit: $87.50 (at $20 at expiry) · Max loss: $12.50 · Break-evens: $19.13 and $20.88
• Why it fits: The body sits exactly on max pain for this expiration, which is also the largest total-gamma strike in the chain and the whole chain's put wall. It is a debit trade, which is the right family when options are priced roughly 37 vol points below delivered movement, and roughly seven-to-one payoff geometry means you can be wrong repeatedly and survive.
• Makes sense only if: you believe the corridor between $19 and $21 holds into Friday. The whole thesis is a pin, and a pin is a low-probability, high-payoff bet by construction.
• Invalidated if: QBTS closes below $19.00 or above $21.00 — outside those, the fly is worthless at expiry.
• Managing it: Butterflies do most of their work in the final two sessions; don't panic at a flat mark on Monday. Take profit if the position reaches roughly 40–50% of max value before Thursday, and simply let it expire worthless if price leaves the corridor — the debit is already the loss.
• Liquidity note: the $21 calls quote $0.21/$0.23 (about 9% of mid, the tightest thing on this board) and the $20 calls $0.39/$0.46, but the $19 calls quote $0.54/$0.97 — roughly 57% of mid. That wing is the whole problem. Leg it with limits or skip the trade; a market order there gives back most of the edge.
• Analyze this position →

The credit-collecting version of this view — an iron condor selling the $17 put / buying the $16 put and selling the $22 call / buying the $23 call — collects only about $0.16 against $0.84 of risk on $1-wide wings. You'd be selling premium that hasn't been rich lately, at the thinnest end of this stock's own recent range, into markets several times wider than the credit. That's why it isn't the featured structure.

If you lean bullish: $20/$22 call debit spread (Aug 28)

• Trade: Buy the Aug 28 $20 call, sell the Aug 28 $22 call
• Debit: $0.31 · Max profit: $169.50 · Max loss: $30.50 · Break-even: $20.31
• Why it fits: Both technical models target $20.85–$20.95 inside this spread, and the chain shows no heavy call barrier between $21 and the $25 call wall. With IV rank at 11/100 you are buying the cheapest options this stock has offered in roughly a year, which is precisely the condition that favours owning premium rather than selling it. A debit spread is a reminder in structural form: you pay $0.31 up front and that is the entire downside.
• Makes sense only if: you think the relief rally clears the 50-day average at $20.62 and the swing resistance near $20.93 rather than stalling there — both technical reports flag that confluence as the pivot.
• Invalidated if: QBTS closes below $19.00 (the expiration's put wall).
• Managing it: Six days is short and the near-term flow read is fighting the two-month trend, so take profits early rather than pressing for max value — close at roughly 60–70% of the spread's width if it gets there, and cut it on any close back under $19.50. Don't hold a losing directional spread into Friday morning hoping for a gamma miracle.
• Liquidity note: the $20 calls trade $0.39/$0.46 and the $22 calls $0.11/$0.13 — roughly 16–17% of mid on each leg. Workable with limits, expensive with market orders.
• Analyze this position →

If you lean bearish: $19/$17 put debit spread (Aug 28)

• Trade: Buy the Aug 28 $19 put, sell the Aug 28 $17 put
• Debit: $0.84 · Max profit: $116.50 · Max loss: $83.50 · Break-even: $18.17
• Why it fits: This is the direct expression of the invalidation level — it pays if the $19 put wall breaks and price works toward the lower half of the implied range. It aligns with the flow that actually showed up this week: put volume at 0.84 per call against a 14-day norm of 0.54, a brand-new 355-contract position in the September $17 puts, and a momentum composite that swung to −33 in three sessions. The long strike sits right at the wall rather than below it, so you're not paying for a move that's already happened.
• Makes sense only if: you think the $19 shelf gives way. Above it, this structure just bleeds — the corridor thesis and the technical models both argue against it, which is why it's third on the list rather than first.
• Invalidated if: QBTS closes above $21.00.
• Managing it: Because the near-term momentum read is fighting a bullish one-month trend read, treat this as a short-fuse trade: exit on any close back above $20.00 (max pain), and take profits at roughly 60% of spread width rather than waiting for the full $2.
• Liquidity note: the $17 puts trade $0.17/$0.21, but the $19 puts quote $0.85/$1.20 — about 34% of mid. That is the widest leg in this trio; the quoted debit is optimistic and a realistic fill will be worse.
• Analyze this position →

If none of these: no trade

Standing aside is a genuinely respectable answer this week, and for a specific reason that has nothing to do with direction. The bid-ask spreads on this expiration run from 9% of mid at best to 57% at worst, and every price above was recorded against an underlying $1.59 away from the official close. That combination — wide markets plus stale marks plus a positioning read that lands within a couple of points of neutral — means the execution cost can easily exceed whatever statistical edge the structure carries. Selling premium is the one thing that clearly isn't the answer: with the premium sitting near the thin end of this stock's own recent range, credit structures are collecting the least they have collected in months for the same amount of risk. If you want exposure to QBTS this week and can't get a good fill, waiting for the next session's quotes costs you nothing but a week.

6 · Quick FAQ

What is QBTS's expected move this week? ±12.2%, or about ±$2.30, into the August 28 expiration — a $16.50–$21.10 range around the $18.80 chain-snapshot price, per straddle pricing as of the August 21 close.

Is QBTS expected to go up or down over the next six days? The data describes positioning, not the future. Options positioning as of August 21 reads neutral — a put-heavy day of flow offset by call-side open interest and mildly constructive short-dated sentiment — but that is a read of what traders have done, not a forecast. The actionable map is the $16.50–$21.10 range, the $19 put wall and the $21 call cluster, with max pain at $20.

Are QBTS options expensive right now? No. IV rank 11/100 says option prices are lower than 89% of the past year's readings; on top of that, they're running roughly 37 vol points below the movement QBTS has actually delivered, thinner than about four-fifths of this stock's own recent readings. The verdict favours owning premium over selling it — with one caveat: the realized-volatility leg still contains the 13.8% gap that accompanied the August 6 earnings report, so the size of that cheapness is partly mechanical.

Where is QBTS's biggest options support and resistance? For the August 28 expiration, the put wall is $19.00 (2,567 contracts) and the heaviest near-money call strike is $21.00 (846 contracts); that expiration's true call wall sits far above at $25.00, where 2,618 calls are open.

What invalidates this week's read? A close below $19.00.

---

Methodology & disclosures. Data: end-of-day options-chain snapshot for QBTS, 2026-08-21, generated 2026-08-22T16:31:17Z. Prices shown are midpoints and will differ from live markets. Momentum/positioning scores and volatility-premium comparisons are descriptive measurements of past option flow and past price movement — not investment advice, signals, forecasts, or guarantees. Earnings dates and reported results are from the data provider's earnings feed as of 2026-08-22T16:31:17Z; report dates can change. All trade structures are hypothetical. Every structure shown has a defined maximum loss; you can lose the entire max-loss amount. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.