QCOM Options Are Pricing a $12 Move Into August 7 — Our Positioning Read Says Neutral While the Charts Argue Lower

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The options market implies a $135.96–$159.44 range into the August 7 expiration; here's what built that range, the levels that decide it, and three defined-risk ways to trade it.

Published Saturday, August 1, 2026 · Data as of the July 31 close · Export generated August 1, 2026 17:17 UTC

Explore the live QCOM options data in the Detailed Options Analyzer →

Quick answer

Item	Answer
Market bias	Neutral — the inputs behind our read genuinely disagree this week
Options-implied range (into Aug 7)	$135.96 – $159.44 (±7.95%)
Major support	$135 — the Aug 7 expiration's own put wall
Major resistance	$160 — heaviest near-money call open interest for Aug 7
Max pain (Aug 7)	$155 — above the current price, not below it
Dealer gamma regime (estimate)	Negative — in this regime market-maker hedging tends to amplify moves rather than cushion them; no flip level could be estimated today
Volatility condition	Falling hard — IV rank 46/100 · premium looks rich on paper: options priced about 13 vol points above delivered movement, but that reading is distorted by the July 29 report
Technical check	Diverges (bearish, 3-day and 6-day models)
Best-fitting strategy	Iron condor — Aug 7 $137/$132 puts and $157.50/$162.50 calls
Analysis invalidated if	QCOM closes above $157.50

1 · What matters today

Qualcomm closed at $147.61 after an ugly stretch — down 11.6% in five sessions and 16.3% over the past month, with a 5.9% gap down on July 30. The options market is pricing a move of roughly $11.74 either way into the August 7 expiration — that's the move implied by what straddles cost — which frames a $135.96–$159.44 box. Our read of the options flow lands genuinely neutral: put activity is running far above this stock's norm, yet the heaviest new open interest went into upside call strikes and the price where the most option value would expire worthless sits above spot at $155. The level that decides the week is $135, where the biggest pile of open put contracts for this expiration was built in a single session. Both technical models disagree with the neutral read and point lower. Macro is dense all week, and July payrolls land at 8:30 a.m. on expiration morning.

2 · What the options market is pricing

What changed this week

Three things moved. First, implied volatility — the market's estimate of how much QCOM will move, baked into option prices — collapsed: at-the-money IV is 56.0%, down 16.5% over five days and 26.4% over thirty, and now sits far below its own 30-day average of 73.2% and 90-day average of 64.9%. Second, put activity exploded: put volume ran 1.25 contracts for every call, against a 14-day average of 0.85 and a 60-day median of just 0.45 for this name. Third — and cutting the other way — the ratio of puts to calls in open positions actually fell from 1.24 to 1.07 over five sessions, so puts are being closed even as put volume spikes. That combination usually describes hedges being rolled and traded, not fresh downside conviction stacking up.

The single biggest build in a still-live contract was the August 7 $135 put, which added 2,564 contracts of open interest to 2,716 — the week's put wall was constructed in one session. Two call strikes did nearly the same thing: the August 7 $160 calls added 2,282 (to 2,640) and the $155 calls 2,174 (to 2,220). Into Friday's expiration, meanwhile, the $150 puts traded 5,221 contracts and picked up 1,795 of open interest — settled history now, but it tells you where the fight was.

The short- and long-term trend reads agree for once: momentum and price are pointing the same way over the past week, past month and past two-and-a-half months (−11.6%, −16.3%, −24.5%). The only crack is a very weak momentum crossover back to the upside dated July 31 — worth one sentence rather than a thesis, because its strength reading is close to zero.

Expected move

Into August 7, the options market implies ±7.95%, or about ±$11.74 around the $147.70 chain-snapshot price. Here is the ladder:

Expiration	Implied move	Range around $147.70
Aug 7 (7 DTE)	±7.95%	$135.96 – $159.44
Aug 14 (14 DTE)	±10.76%	$131.81 – $163.59
Aug 21 (21 DTE)	±13.00%	$128.50 – $166.90
Aug 28 (28 DTE)	±15.39%	$124.97 – $170.43

The rungs step up almost exactly as the square root of time would predict — there is no bump, kink or premium hump anywhere in the ladder, which is what a chain looks like when the big scheduled event is already behind it rather than ahead of it. The July 31 expiration has already settled and is excluded from every figure and structure below.

Volatility

At-the-money IV for the August 7 expiration is 57.4%; the chain-wide read is 56.0%. IV rank is 46/100 — where today's IV sits versus the past year, meaning cheaper than roughly 54% of the past year's readings. Worth knowing: the percentile version of that same measure reads 77, because the past year contained a handful of enormous volatility spikes that stretch the top of the range. Practically, option prices are middling versus the past year and clearly falling: IV rank averaged 60 over the past week and 65 over the past two weeks. The front-month read is unavailable today — the snapshot fell on an expiration day, so the nearest tenor couldn't be interpolated.

Two "vs its own norm" observations — compared against this stock's own recent history, not the broader market. Put volume relative to calls is running far above anything normal for QCOM, one of the most stretched readings in the whole snapshot. And QCOM's actual 20-day delivered movement, at 43.4% annualized, is running well below this name's recent norm — which tells you how violent the prior stretch was, not that the stock has gone quiet.

Premium rich or cheap. The gap between what options are priced for and what the stock has actually delivered — the volatility risk premium — sits at about 13 vol points (57% implied against 43% delivered), which is richer than about 63% of this stock's own recent readings. On its own that combination — IV rank 46 and a 63rd-percentile premium over delivered movement — mildly favors collecting premium rather than owning it. But the caveat is not optional here: QCOM reported on July 29, so the earnings gap now sits inside the 20-day realized-volatility window, which mechanically drags the realized leg around. The gap read 29 points on July 27 and 13 points now — that halving is the gap entering the realized window and the event premium bleeding out of implied, not traders repricing risk. Treat "rich" as descriptive, not as an edge. For the record on the report itself: QCOM delivered $1.53 per share against a $1.54 estimate, after two quarters that came in above expectations.

Skew and sentiment

Skew — the fact that puts and calls the same distance from the price don't cost the same — is unusual for this name. Twenty-five-delta calls carry 57.0% IV against 55.1% for the equivalent puts, so calls are about 2 vol points richer than puts. That's a call-favored skew, typical of high-beta momentum names. The catch is the baseline: the 60-day median for QCOM is calls richer by 3.4 points, so relative to its own norm, skew has steepened toward puts by about a point and a half. Traders are paying up for downside protection at the margin, without flipping the structure outright.

Sentiment in short-dated options is split down the middle. The 0–7 day bucket reads clearly positive today, driven entirely by call-side open interest building — and that's a flip, because that same bucket averaged mildly negative over the past week. Everything longer stays put-heavy: the 7–30 day bucket is negative, 30–60 day more so, and the 60–120 day bucket is the most bearish read on the curve. The overall label is "mixed," and that is an honest description rather than a hedge. One more reading against its own norm: today's count of call contracts clearing the unusual-volume bar (three calls, zero puts) is unusually call-tilted for QCOM.

Our leading positioning read — a composite built only from flow, skew and term-structure inputs, deliberately excluding price and IV trend — is in a bullish divergence state: price fell about 17% over the trailing ten sessions while the positioning score rose roughly 35 points. That is a description of conditions that have historically preceded a turn, not a confirmed turn and not a forecast.

The key levels map

Level	Price	Why it matters
Whole chain's heaviest call strike	$200	24,451 contracts across all expirations — a longer-dated artifact, irrelevant at this price
Call wall, Aug 7 expiration	$190	3,898 contracts, but a legacy strike from far higher prices — not a live barrier this week
Swing resistance / 200-day average	$164.77 / $169.01	First real chart resistance shelf; price is 12.7% below its 200-day average
Heaviest near-money call OI (Aug 7)	$160	2,640 contracts, +2,282 in one session; also the largest total gamma strike chain-wide — the practical ceiling for this expiration
Max pain (Aug 7) / second call cluster	$155	Where the most option value would expire worthless; expirations sometimes gravitate toward it — and it sits above spot
Top of the July 30 gap	$155.68	The unfilled gap runs $146.55–$155.68; open air between here and $155
Whole chain's put wall	$150	16,746 contracts and the day's most-traded strike ($2.0M of premium in the Aug 7 $150 puts alone)
Spot / close	$147.70 / $147.61	Chain-snapshot price and official close — a few cents apart, which is normal
Bottom of the July 30 gap	$146.55	Fails here and the gap stops acting as support
Swing support	$138.50	First heuristic swing-pivot cluster below the market (an estimate, not a guaranteed zone)
Put wall, Aug 7 expiration	$135	2,716 contracts after a +2,564 build — the biggest single OI change of the day and this week's floor candidate
Next swing support	$131.14	Where the chart's next pivot cluster sits
52-week low	$121.99	Price is 18.6% of the way up its 52-week range, 43.2% below the high

Note the disagreement worth flagging: the whole chain's put wall is $150 and its heaviest call strike is $200, but the August 7 expiration's own walls are $135 and $190. For a six-day trade, use the expiration's own numbers — the aggregate is dominated by longer-dated positions left over from much higher prices.

Positioning and unusual flow

One rough estimate of dealer positioning has QCOM in a negative-gamma regime both chain-wide and for the August 7 expiration specifically, which means market-maker hedging tends to amplify moves rather than dampen them. No gamma flip level — the price below which that hedging tends to accelerate selling — could be estimated from today's chain, so we won't quote one.

Three live flow items stood out. The Aug 7 $150 puts traded 3,431 contracts against 812 open, roughly $2.0 million of premium and the tightest quote in the expiration — that's the strike traders are using to express the next few days. The Aug 7 $134 puts printed 2,404 contracts against 94 open, a 25x turnover, which is cheap tail protection just under the put wall. And the Aug 14 $142 puts traded 460 contracts into essentially zero open interest — a brand-new position rather than a roll. On the other side, the 2,200-contract builds at the $155 and $160 calls are the clearest bullish footprint in the file.

3 · Technical check (the 20%)

Both technical models lean bearish, and both are dated today, so neither is stale. The 3-day model targets $145.20 by August 4 inside a $142.50–$150.80 band, citing an ADX reading of 42.4 with the negative directional line dominating — a strong, well-established downtrend rather than a drifting one — plus money-flow readings consistent with sustained distribution. The 6-day model targets $144.00 by August 7 inside $139.50–$151.50, and names $150.49 (the short-term moving average) as overhead resistance with $143.00 as the level whose break opens $138–$140.

Against our neutral options read, that is a divergence: the charts take a side the flow won't confirm. Both targets sit comfortably inside the options-implied range, so this isn't a magnitude argument — the technical models simply expect the week to resolve lower while the chain's own structure (max pain at $155, the biggest new call OI at $155 and $160, an unfilled gap overhead) points the other way. Both reports also flag the counter-risk themselves: RSI near 29 and a narrowing MACD histogram, which is chart-speak for downside momentum decelerating.

Model vs. Market: The options market implies $135.96–$159.44 into August 7; the 6-day technical model targets $144.00 inside a $139.50–$151.50 band. The chart model expects roughly half the width the options market is charging for — and it expects the resolution to be lower. What settles it is $150.49–$151.50: reclaimed and held, the bearish structure breaks and the $155 magnet takes over; rejected again, the $143 test the charts want comes into play.

The practical effect on strike selection below: the technicals earned the bearish structure a place in the lineup and pulled the condor's short call down to $157.50 rather than $160, but they did not move the headline bias.

Full technical write-ups: 3-day report → · 6-day report →

4 · Three ways the next six days can go

Macro is unusually dense inside this window — ISM Manufacturing PMI and construction spending Monday at 10:00 a.m. with the Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey at 2:00 p.m.; trade balance, JOLTS and factory orders Tuesday; ADP, the Treasury quarterly refunding announcement and ISM Services Wednesday; jobless claims and productivity Thursday; and the July employment report at 8:30 a.m. Friday, August 7 — expiration morning. Nothing in the chain singles out a specific macro date: the week's open-interest building clustered at $135, $155 and $160, which is a price story rather than a calendar story. Treat the calendar as timing risk for the structures, not as a directional input.

If QCOM pushes above $155: that's the expiration's max-pain strike and the base of the near-money call shelf, and the July 30 gap top sits at $155.68 — the positioning above spot is a magnet as much as a barrier this week, because the biggest new call open interest was bought, not sold into a wall. Above $160, where the single heaviest near-money call OI and the largest total-gamma strike coincide, positioning thins out quickly toward the $164.77 swing shelf.

If QCOM drifts between the walls: this is the pin case and the one the structures below are built around. With implied volatility falling fast, the day's flow concentrated at $150 and the expiration's own walls at $135 and $190, a chop between roughly $137 and $157 with the expiring open interest tugging toward $155 is the path of least resistance for a chain that just had its event risk removed.

If QCOM breaks below the $135 put wall: this is the acceleration case. The dealer-gamma estimate for this expiration is negative, meaning hedging tends to amplify a move rather than absorb it, and there is very little open interest below $135 in this expiration to slow things down — the chart's next heuristic supports are $131.14 and then the 52-week low at $121.99. Note the intermediate step: the 6-day technical model's bearish scenario triggers on a break of $143, well before the put wall.

5 · Three defined-risk structures

Prices are end-of-day midpoints as of the July 31 close. All structures are hypothetical. Verify live prices before trading — these will be stale by the open.

If you expect the range to hold: iron condor (the best-fitting structure)

• Trade: Sell the Aug 7 $137/$132 put spread and the Aug 7 $157.50/$162.50 call spread
• Credit: ~$1.30 ($0.58 put side + $0.72 call side) · Max profit: $130 · Max loss: $370 · Break-evens: $135.70 and $158.80
• Why it fits: the break-evens bracket essentially the entire options-implied range ($135.96–$159.44), the short put sits just above the $135 put wall that was built yesterday, and the short call sits above the $155 max-pain strike. With IV down 16.5% in five days and the report already behind the chain, this is a bet on decay continuing rather than on direction.
• Makes sense only if: you're willing to be short both tails through payrolls, and you accept that a neutral read is a read on positioning, not a guarantee of a quiet week.
• Invalidated if: QCOM closes above $157.50 or below $137.
• Managing it: close at roughly 50% of max credit; close the tested side rather than hoping through it; and strongly consider being flat before Friday's 8:30 a.m. employment report, which lands on expiration morning with the position at maximum gamma.
• Liquidity note: the $137 puts quoted $0.92/$1.15 (23¢ wide) and the $157.50 calls $1.39/$1.60 (21¢ wide) — workable. The long wings are the problem: the $132 puts are 17¢ wide on a $0.46 mid and the $162.50 calls 22¢ on $0.78, well beyond a comfortable slippage budget. Enter as a single four-leg package and don't pay through the mid.
• Analyze this position →

If you lean bearish: $150/$142 put debit spread

• Trade: Buy the Aug 7 $150 put, sell the Aug 7 $142 put
• Debit: ~$3.59 · Max profit: $441 · Max loss: $359 · Break-even: $146.42
• Why it fits: you pay a defined amount for a defined payoff — this profits below $146.42 and maxes out at $142. It's the structure that expresses both technical models (targets $144.00 and $145.20) without selling premium into a falling-IV tape, the $150 put was the expiration's most active contract by a mile, and the $142 short strike stays well above the $135 put wall so you aren't fighting the OI shelf.
• Makes sense only if: QCOM keeps failing under $150 and the July 30 gap ($146.55–$155.68) stays unfilled.
• Invalidated if: QCOM closes above $151.50 — the level both technical reports name as the end of the bearish case.
• Managing it: a short-dated directional structure fighting a chain whose own magnet sits above spot deserves early profit-taking — take it off at 60–70% of max value rather than holding for the last dollar, and be out before Friday's jobs report unless you specifically want expiration-morning gap exposure.
• Liquidity note: the $150 puts quoted $5.55/$6.10 — 55¢ wide, about 9% of mid and the tightest quote on this board. The $142 puts at $2.03/$2.45 are 19% of mid, so the short leg is where the slippage lives.
• Analyze this position →

If you lean bullish: $142/$137 put credit spread

• Trade: Sell the Aug 7 $142 put, buy the Aug 7 $137 put
• Credit: ~$1.20 — you collect that up front and keep it if QCOM stays above $142 · Max profit: $120 · Max loss: $380 · Break-even: $140.80
• Why it fits: our leading positioning read is in a bullish divergence, the 0–7 day sentiment bucket flipped positive today on call-side open-interest building, and the largest new call positions of the day were at $155 and $160. The break-even at $140.80 sits below the chart's $143 trigger level and above the $135 put wall — the structural cushion this week.
• Makes sense only if: you read the unusually heavy put volume as hedging into an oversold tape rather than as conviction — and note the put open-interest ratio actually fell from 1.24 to 1.07 over five days, which supports that reading.
• Invalidated if: QCOM closes below $140.
• Managing it: close at 50% of max credit; if $143 breaks on volume, close rather than hope — the trend reads are aligned bearish across every horizon and this is the structure fighting them.
• Liquidity note: the $142 puts quoted $2.03/$2.45 (42¢, 19% of mid) and the $137 puts $0.92/$1.15 (23¢, 22%) — both traded real size today (216 and 470 contracts) but the percentage spreads are wide, so a limit order at the mid is mandatory, not optional.
• Analyze this position →

If none of these: no trade

There is a real case for standing aside. The premium that looks rich — about 13 vol points above delivered movement — only looks that way because the realized-volatility window has not yet fully absorbed the July 30 gap; that number has already halved in three sessions and it will keep moving for mechanical reasons rather than tradeable ones. IV rank at 46 is the middle of the past year, not an edge. Every attractive short strike in this expiration quotes 10–25% wide, so a $1.30 credit can lose 20¢ to slippage on the way in and again on the way out. And the expiration lands the morning of a payrolls print with negative-gamma hedging estimated in the background. If your edge here is "the box probably holds," recognize that you're being paid modestly to be short both tails of a stock that has moved more than 11% in each of the last two weeks. Waiting for either the $135 wall to be tested or $151.50 to be reclaimed gives you a level to trade against instead of a guess.

6 · Quick FAQ

What is QCOM's expected move this week? About ±$11.74, or ±7.95%, into the August 7 expiration — a $135.96–$159.44 range, derived from what August 7 straddles cost at the July 31 close.

Is QCOM expected to go up or down over the next six days? Our read of the options positioning as of July 31 is genuinely neutral — put volume is far above this stock's norm while the biggest new open interest went into upside calls and max pain sits above spot at $155 — but that's a description of what traders have already done, not a forecast. Both technical models take the other side and target $144–$145. The actionable map is the $135.96–$159.44 range and the $135 / $155–$160 levels.

Are QCOM options expensive right now? Two lenses. IV rank of 46/100 says option prices are higher than 46% of the past year's readings — middling, and falling fast (down 16.5% in five days). On top of that, they're running about 13 vol points above the movement QCOM has actually delivered, richer than roughly 63% of this stock's own recent readings. That mildly favors collecting premium, with one caveat: the July 29 report is still working its way through the realized-volatility window, so treat the "rich" reading as descriptive rather than as free money.

Where is QCOM's biggest options support and resistance? For the August 7 expiration, the put wall — the strike with the biggest pile of open put contracts — is $135, built with a 2,564-contract single-session add. The heaviest near-money call open interest is $160, with a second cluster and the max-pain strike at $155. The expiration's nominal call wall of $190 is a legacy strike from much higher prices and is not a live barrier this week.

What invalidates this week's read? A close above $157.50. That would put QCOM through the max-pain magnet and the near-money call shelf, break the range case, and end the bearish technical argument in one move.

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Methodology & disclosures. Data: end-of-day options-chain snapshot for QCOM, 2026-07-31, generated 2026-08-01T17:17:03.547Z. Prices shown are midpoints and will differ from live markets. Momentum/positioning scores and volatility-premium comparisons are descriptive measurements of past option flow and past price movement — not investment advice, signals, forecasts, or guarantees. Earnings dates and reported results are from the data provider's earnings feed as of 2026-08-01T17:17:03.547Z; report dates can change. All trade structures are hypothetical. Every structure shown has a defined maximum loss; you can lose the entire max-loss amount. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.