QCOM Options Are Pricing an $8.81 Move Into September 11 — Our Chart Read Sees Half That

The options market implies a $159.93–$177.55 range into the September 11 expiration; here's what's driving it and three defined-risk ways to trade it.

Published Saturday, September 5, 2026 · Data as of the September 4 close

Explore the live QCOM options data in the Detailed Options Analyzer →

Quick answer

Item	Answer
Market bias	Neutral with a bullish tilt
Options-implied range (into Sep 11)	$159.93 – $177.55 (±5.2%)
Major support	$160 (whole chain's heaviest put strike; also the Sep 11 max-pain strike)
Major resistance	$170 (Sep 11 call wall)
Max pain (Sep 11)	$160
Dealer gamma regime (estimate)	Positive — hedging tends to dampen moves; flip level ≈ $170, and spot sits just below it
Volatility condition	Falling over the past month, flat this week — IV rank 21/100 · premium rich: options priced ~13 vol points above delivered movement
Technical check	Mixed — both the 3-day and 6-day models read neutral, with much tighter ranges
Best-fitting strategy	Short put spread (Sep 11 $165/$160)
Analysis invalidated if	QCOM closes below $165

1 · What matters today

QCOM closed at $168.74 after a 2.8% five-session bounce, and the options market is pricing roughly $8.81 of movement in either direction through Friday, September 11 — a $159.93 to $177.55 band. Our read of the options data lands neutral with a mild upward tilt: call-side volume is running heavily ahead of puts, sentiment in short-dated contracts leans positive across every expiration bucket, and the leading positioning read has turned up. The counterweight is where price sits — right underneath $170, the strike with the biggest pile of open call contracts for this expiration and for the whole chain. That is the level that decides the week. The technical models, both of which read neutral, expect a much narrower drift than the options market is charging for. A close below $165 breaks the constructive read.

2 · What the options market is pricing

What changed this week

Money moved to the call side, fast. Put/call volume came in at 0.29 — for every put contract traded there were more than three calls — against a 14-day average of 0.57 and a 7-day average of 0.42. That is unusually call-tilted even by this stock's own recent standards. Open interest tells the same story: the put/call open-interest ratio slid from 1.03 five sessions ago to 0.86, versus a 14-day average of 0.91, as call open interest grew by 8,557 contracts while put open interest shrank by 951. The single biggest change was at the September 11 $167.50 calls, where open interest jumped 1,756 contracts to 2,081 — traders adding just-out-of-the-money upside for this week specifically.

Implied volatility — the market's estimate of how much QCOM will move, baked into option prices — barely budged, up 1.7% over five sessions to 39.8%, but it is down almost 41% over 30 sessions and sits well under both its 30-day average (49.2%) and its 90-day average (65.5%). The bigger picture cuts against the week's optimism: the short-, medium- and long-term trend reads disagree outright. Price is up 2.8% over the past week and roughly flat over the past month, but down 18.1% over the past two-and-a-half months. The near-term flow and the bigger trend are pointing different ways, which argues for keeping directional exposure short-dated rather than betting on a durable turn.

Expected move

Into September 11, the options market is pricing a ±5.22% move — about $8.81 up or down from $168.74. That figure comes from what at-the-money straddles cost: buy the call and the put at the same strike and you're paying for roughly that much movement. Here is the ladder across the next month:

Expiration	Implied move	Range around $168.74
Fri, Sep 11 (7 DTE)	±5.2%	$159.93 – $177.55
Fri, Sep 18 (14 DTE)	±7.9%	$155.46 – $182.02
Fri, Sep 25 (21 DTE)	±9.5%	$152.79 – $184.69
Fri, Oct 2 (28 DTE)	±10.8%	$150.47 – $187.01

The rungs step up smoothly — roughly the square-root-of-time scaling you'd expect from a chain with no scheduled event inside it. There is no jump anywhere in this ladder, which is itself information: nothing on the calendar is being priced as a shock inside the next month.

Volatility

At-the-money implied volatility is 39.8%, with an IV rank of 21/100 — meaning today's IV is cheaper than roughly 79% of the past year's readings — and a percentile of 43. In plain terms, options are not expensive by this stock's twelve-month history. The front-month read is unavailable today (the chain's nearest expiration had already reached expiry at the snapshot), so the usual comparison of front-month against two-month pricing has to sit this one out.

What is unusual is how quiet the stock has been. Twenty-day realized volatility — how much QCOM has actually been moving — is 26.6%, unusually depressed for this name relative to its own recent history. At the same time, the five-day realized reading is running about 1.4 times the 20-day, which is a genuinely extreme acceleration versus this stock's norm. Movement is picking up off a very quiet base.

Premium rich or cheap. The volatility risk premium — the gap between how much movement options are priced for and how much QCOM has actually delivered — sits at about 13 vol points (39.8% implied against 26.6% delivered). When that gap is positive, option sellers have been collecting more than realized movement cost them. Today's reading is richer than about 89% of this stock's own recent readings. That combination — an IV rank of only 21 but a premium in the 89th percentile against delivered movement — favors collecting premium this week rather than owning it, with one honest caveat: the gap flipped from negative to positive in late August largely for a mechanical reason, as the late-July earnings gap rolled out of the 20-day realized-volatility window. That is arithmetic, not a fresh repricing. And with five-day realized movement accelerating, the gap can close by the stock delivering movement rather than by IV falling.

Skew and sentiment

Twenty-five-delta skew — the price difference between puts and calls the same distance from spot — is running at −1.0 vol points, meaning calls are marginally richer than puts, against a 60-day median of −0.9. Essentially at its norm, but the path matters: the 14-day average sat at +0.5 vol points (puts richer), so the downside-protection bid that dominated mid-August has quietly bled away over the past two weeks. Nobody is paying up for crash protection right now.

Sentiment in short-dated options is positive across the curve: the 0–7 day bucket reads +26 and the 7–30 day bucket +24, with the 30–60 day bucket at +40 — a "bullish recovery" profile where positioning is building further out rather than just chasing the front week. Both front buckets are above their 7-day averages (+22 and +7). The one dissonant note is peer-relative sweep activity, where two put contracts cleared the unusual-volume bar against one call — a small bearish tick inside an otherwise call-tilted picture.

The key levels map

Level	Price	Why it matters
Implied-move ceiling (Sep 11)	$177.55	Top of the 1σ range the options market is pricing
Swing resistance	$172.12	Heuristic pivot cluster from recent price structure
Swing resistance	$170.13	Nearest overhead pivot; effectively coincides with the call wall
Call wall (Sep 11) + gamma flip estimate	$170.00	6,146 calls open at this strike for Sep 11 and 27,214 across the whole chain — the heaviest call strike either way, and also the largest gamma strike. One rough estimate places the dealer gamma flip here too
50-day moving average	$169.31	Price is 0.3% below it — the first thing a rally has to reclaim
Last close	$168.74	Spot, pinned between the 50-day and 200-day averages
200-day moving average	$167.83	Price is 0.5% above; losing it is the first crack in the bounce
Swing support	$165.87	Recent pivot cluster (heuristic, not a guaranteed reaction zone)
20-day moving average	$164.02	Price sits 2.9% above it — the rising floor under the August recovery
Max pain (Sep 11) + whole-chain put wall	$160.00	20,570 puts open across the chain; also where the most option value would expire worthless this Friday
Implied-move floor (Sep 11)	$159.93	Bottom of the 1σ range
Put wall (Sep 11 only)	$157.50	This week's own heaviest put strike — but at just 804 contracts, a thin barrier compared with the chain-wide pile at $160

Worth flagging where the week's own numbers diverge from the chain as a whole: the September 11 expiration shares the chain's $170 call wall, but its put wall sits at $157.50 with barely any size behind it, while the chain's real put pile is at $160. For this week, treat $160 as the meaningful downside shelf and $157.50 as a footnote.

Positioning and unusual flow

Market makers hedge the options they've sold, and in a positive-gamma regime that hedging tends to dampen moves rather than amplify them. One rough estimate puts QCOM in exactly that regime — both across the chain and for the September 11 expiration specifically — with the flip level at about $170. The awkward detail is that spot is roughly 0.7% below that estimated flip. So the calming effect the label implies really only applies above $170; underneath it, the same estimate says hedging stops cushioning declines.

Three flow items stood out, all in unexpired contracts. The September 11 $167.50 puts traded 453 contracts against just 137 open — turnover of more than three times the existing position, and the highest such reading in the chain. That's fresh short-dated downside being bought right at the money. On the other side, the September 11 $180 calls traded 1,499 contracts and added 458 to open interest, and the $187.5 calls traded 606 and added 453 — both far above the implied range, so this is lottery-ticket upside rather than considered positioning. And in the October 16 expiration, the $220 calls traded 1,057 contracts and more than doubled open interest to 2,020. The near-dated dollars still concentrate at $170 and $175 for this Friday: the $170 calls saw about $381,000 of premium change hands and the $175 calls about $322,000.

3 · Technical check

Both technical reports read neutral, and both anchor on the same structure the options data does. The 3-day model targets $168.20 by Tuesday, September 8, inside a $165.80–$171.20 band; the 6-day model targets $168.50 by September 11 inside $164.80–$172.60. Its reference price of $168.78 is within two cents of the options snapshot, so the two datasets are looking at the same market.

The two most decisive indicator reads pull opposite ways, which is why the verdict is neutral rather than directional: ADX at 14.6 confirms a genuinely weak, non-trending market with the negative directional line slightly ahead of the positive one, while money flow (CMF at 0.099 and rising since late August) shows quiet accumulation underneath a flat price. Named chart levels are support at $167.00–$167.30 and resistance at $170.60 — a near-exact match for the 200-day average and the options call wall. The dominant scenario's invalidation is a daily close outside $167.30–$170.60.

Model vs. Market: The options market implies $159.93–$177.55 into September 11; the 6-day technical model targets $168.50 inside a $164.80–$172.60 band — a range roughly half as wide. The chart says this stock chops; the options chain is charging as if it might not. That gap is the single best argument for selling premium this week rather than buying it, and it is why the range structure below uses short strikes just outside the technical band but inside the options band.

Full technical write-ups: 3-day report → · 6-day report →

4 · Three ways the next six days can go

If QCOM pushes above the call wall ($170): the heaviest call open interest in the entire chain sits at that strike, and dealers hedging short calls into it tend to slow rallies rather than accelerate them. A clean daily close through $170 would also clear the 50-day average at $169.31 and the estimated gamma flip in one move, which is when the "dampening" regime starts working for the bulls instead of against them. Above that, positioning thins fast — the swing pivots at $170.13 and $172.12, then open air up to the implied ceiling at $177.55.

If QCOM drifts between the levels: this is what both technical models expect, and what the gamma structure supports. The four largest gamma strikes — $170, $165, $175 and $160 — bracket spot closely, and that concentration tends to pull price toward the middle as expiration approaches. Note that this week's max pain sits at $160, unusually far below spot, so it is not currently a magnet; it only becomes relevant if price is already sliding. The interim milepost is Tuesday, September 8, where the 3-day model expects $168.20 inside $165.80–$171.20.

If QCOM breaks below support: spot is already sitting just under the estimated gamma flip at $170, on the side where one rough estimate says market-maker hedging amplifies selling rather than cushioning it. The 200-day average at $167.83 is the first shelf, swing support at $165.87 the second, and below that the week's own put wall at $157.50 is too thin to matter — the real pool of open puts is the chain-wide 20,570 contracts at $160, which is also this Friday's max pain. A close below $165 is where the constructive read stops working.

5 · Three defined-risk structures

Prices are end-of-day midpoints as of September 4. All structures are hypothetical. Verify live prices before trading — these will be stale by the open.

If you lean bullish: short put spread (credit)

• Trade: Sell the Sep 11 $165 put / buy the Sep 11 $160 put. You collect premium up front and keep it if QCOM stays above $165 at expiration.
• Credit: $1.19 · Max profit: $119 · Max loss: $381 · Break-even: $163.81
• Why it fits: it sells the richest thing on the board. Options are priced about 13 vol points above what QCOM has actually delivered, in the 89th percentile of this stock's own recent readings, and the short strike sits below the 200-day average ($167.83) and swing support ($165.87), with the long strike parked exactly at the chain's put wall and this week's max pain ($160).
• Makes sense only if: you believe the August recovery structure holds and the stock spends the week chopping around the moving averages rather than retesting the lows.
• Invalidated if: QCOM closes below $165.
• Managing it: close at roughly 50% of max credit; take it off by Wednesday if the credit hasn't decayed, since a 6-day spread is all gamma risk in the last two sessions. Because the near-term uptrend is fighting a trend that's still down 18% over two months, take profits early rather than holding for the last dime. If QCOM closes through $165, close the position rather than hope.
• Liquidity note: the $165 puts traded 10¢ wide on 509 contracts — easy. The $160 puts are 8¢ wide, small in dollars but about 12% of the mid, so enter as a package on a limit at the spread mid, not leg by leg.
• Analyze this position →

If you expect the range to hold: iron condor

• Trade: Sell the Sep 11 $160 put / buy the $155 put, and sell the Sep 11 $177.50 call / buy the $182.50 call. You collect on both sides and keep the credit if QCOM finishes between the short strikes.
• Credit: $0.91 · Max profit: $91 · Max loss: $409 · Break-evens: $159.09 and $178.41
• Why it fits: both break-evens sit marginally outside the options-implied range of $159.93–$177.55, and comfortably outside the 6-day technical band of $164.80–$172.60. The short put strike is the chain's put wall and this week's max pain; the short call strike sits above every named resistance level. This is the structure that directly monetizes the Model-vs-Market gap.
• Makes sense only if: you accept a 4.5-to-1 risk-reward in exchange for a wide profit band, and you're willing to manage rather than hold to expiry.
• Invalidated if: QCOM closes above $177.50 or below $160.
• Managing it: close at ~50% of max credit; if either short strike is breached, close that side rather than defend it — with six days to run there isn't time for a roll to work. Exit the whole thing by Thursday regardless.
• Liquidity note: the short strikes are fine — the $177.50 calls traded 7¢ wide on 475 contracts, the $160 puts 8¢ wide on 503. The wings are the problem: the $182.50 calls are 10¢ wide on a 38¢ mid and the $155 puts 17¢ wide on a 28.5¢ mid. On a $0.91 credit that slippage matters. Insist on a package limit at the mid and walk away if you can't get filled near it.
• Analyze this position →

If you lean bearish: short call spread (credit)

• Trade: Sell the Sep 11 $175 call / buy the Sep 11 $180 call. You collect premium and keep it if QCOM stays below $175.
• Credit: $0.76 · Max profit: $76 · Max loss: $424 · Break-even: $175.76
• Why it fits: the short strike sits above the $170 call wall, above both technical resistance zones, and its break-even at $175.76 is inside the implied ceiling of $177.55 — so this pays as long as the rally stalls anywhere near where the heaviest call positioning sits. It also fits the longer-horizon read, where the stock is still down 18% over two months and the 100-day average sits 8% overhead at $183.45.
• Makes sense only if: you think the $170 wall holds and the week's call-buying is chasing rather than leading.
• Invalidated if: QCOM closes above $170.60 — a clean break of the call wall and the estimated gamma flip together.
• Managing it: close at ~50% of max credit; because the short-term trend is currently pointing up against you, cut this one on the first daily close above $170 rather than waiting for the strike to be tested.
• Liquidity note: both legs are heavily traded — the $175 calls printed 2,380 contracts 9¢ wide, the $180 calls 1,499 contracts 9¢ wide. This is the tightest of the three structures to fill.
• Analyze this position →

If none of these: no trade

The premium-rich reading is the strongest argument in this article, so standing aside deserves a real defense. Here it is: the richness is measured against a 20-day realized volatility that is unusually depressed for this stock, and five-day realized movement is already running about 1.4 times that 20-day figure — a genuinely extreme acceleration by QCOM's own standards. A premium gap can close two ways, and this one may close by the stock delivering movement rather than by implied volatility falling. Layer on an IV rank of only 21/100 (so the absolute dollars collected are thin), weekly wings that quote 25% to 60% wide, and a six-day clock that leaves no room to repair a breached strike, and the honest verdict is that these are small-edge trades. If you can't get filled near the midpoint, there is no trade here worth chasing.

6 · Quick FAQ

What is QCOM's expected move this week? About ±$8.81, or ±5.2%, into the September 11 expiration — a $159.93 to $177.55 range, per the options market's straddle pricing as of the September 4 close.

Is QCOM expected to go up or down over the next six days? Options positioning as of September 4 leans mildly bullish — call-tilted volume, thinning put open interest and positive sentiment across every expiration bucket — but that is a read of what traders have already done, not a forecast. The actionable map is the $159.93–$177.55 range and the $160 support / $170 resistance levels, with the caveat that the longer-term trend is still down 18% over the past two-and-a-half months.

Are QCOM options expensive right now? Two lenses, two answers. An IV rank of 21/100 says option prices are lower than roughly 79% of the past year's readings. But they're running about 13 vol points above the movement QCOM has actually delivered over the past month — richer than about 89% of this stock's own recent readings. Net: cheap versus last year, rich versus what the stock is currently doing, which favors selling premium in defined-risk form.

Where is QCOM's biggest options support and resistance? Resistance is the $170 call wall — 6,146 contracts open there for September 11 and 27,214 across the whole chain. Support is $160, where 20,570 puts sit open chain-wide and where this week's max pain lands. The September 11 expiration's own put wall at $157.50 is too thin (804 contracts) to lean on.

What invalidates this week's read? A close below $165. That would take out the 200-day average at $167.83 and swing support at $165.87 on the way, and would put the estimated gamma flip well overhead — the configuration in which hedging flows stop cushioning declines.

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Methodology & disclosures. Data: end-of-day options-chain snapshot for QCOM, 2026-09-04, generated 2026-09-05T15:02:23.413Z. Prices shown are midpoints and will differ from live markets. Momentum/positioning scores and volatility-premium comparisons are descriptive measurements of past option flow and past price movement — not investment advice, signals, forecasts, or guarantees. Earnings dates and reported results are from the data provider's earnings feed as of 2026-09-05T15:02:23.413Z; report dates can change. All trade structures are hypothetical. Every structure shown has a defined maximum loss; you can lose the entire max-loss amount. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.