QCOM Options Are Pricing a $9 Move Into August 28 — And Positioning Leans Lower

The options market implies a $151.58–$169.90 range into the August 28 expiration; here's what's driving the read and three defined-risk ways to trade it.

Published Saturday, August 22, 2026 · Data as of the 2026-08-21 close

Explore the live QCOM options data in the Detailed Options Analyzer →

Quick answer

Item	Answer
Market bias	Bearish
Options-implied range (into Aug 28)	$151.58 – $169.90 (±5.7%)
Major support	$150 (Aug 28 put wall); first structural shelf $156.73
Major resistance	$175 (Aug 28 call wall); nearer supply at $165
Max pain (Aug 28)	$162.50
Dealer gamma regime (estimate)	Positive for the Aug 28 expiration — hedging tends to dampen moves; whole-chain flip level ≈ $210 (estimate, far above spot)
Volatility condition	Falling — IV rank 25/100 · premium roughly fair: options priced about 5 vol points below delivered movement (distorted by the July 29 report sitting inside the realized-vol window)
Technical check	Confirms (bearish, 3-day and 6-day models)
Best-fitting strategy	Aug 28 $160/$155 put debit spread
Analysis invalidated if	QCOM closes above $165

1 · What matters today

Qualcomm closed at $160.75, essentially flat on its 20-day average but nearly 10% under its 50-day and 4.4% under its 200-day. Our read of the options data leans bearish into the six days ahead, and the single biggest reason is that four separate inputs agree: leading positioning, flow momentum, sentiment in short-dated options, and the price of downside protection all point the same direction at once. That agreement is what pushes this from a mild tilt to a real lean.

The options market is pricing a move of roughly ±$9.16 (±5.7%) into the August 28 expiration — a $151.58 to $169.90 range. Both of our technical models also read bearish, targeting about $158.75–$158.90. The level that changes the picture: a close above $165. Above that, the bearish read is done.

2 · What the options market is pricing

What changed this week

The stock gave back 3.06% over the past five sessions and is down 3.79% over twenty. Put activity turned heavy: the put/call volume ratio — how much put trading there is relative to calls, where above 1 means puts dominate — printed 1.17, against a 7-day average of 0.80 and a 14-day average of 0.68. In other words, for every call contract traded there were 1.17 puts, where two weeks ago the typical day saw roughly two calls for every three puts. Compared with this stock's own recent history, that put-tilted volume reading is unusually elevated.

The open-interest mix hasn't followed yet. There are 290,688 calls versus 235,698 puts held open, a put/call open-interest ratio of 0.81 against a 14-day average of 0.84 — so the standing position base is still call-heavy even as the day's flow leans defensive. The clearest shift is in the price of protection: 25-delta skew (how much more a put costs than an equally out-of-the-money call) now sits at puts +0.4 vol points, against a 60-day median where calls were 1.9 points richer. That's a 2.3-point swing toward paying up for downside in two months.

The short- and long-term trend reads agree here rather than fighting: the past week, the past month, and the past ~two-and-a-half months all read bearish, with a fresh momentum crossover back to the downside on August 20. Into Friday's settled August 21 expiration, deep in-the-money $200 and $180 puts changed hands 4,778 and 7,160 times against far smaller open interest — roughly $18.7m and $14.1m of premium — but that is legacy housekeeping from when the stock traded far higher, not new positioning.

Expected move

The expected move is the move the options market is pricing in, derived from what straddles cost. Into August 28, that's ±5.7%, or about ±$9.16 around $160.74.

Expiration	Implied move	Range around $160.74
Aug 28 (7 DTE)	±5.70%	$151.58 – $169.90
Sep 4 (14 DTE)	±8.34%	$147.33 – $174.15
Sep 11 (21 DTE)	±9.69%	$145.16 – $176.32
Sep 18 (28 DTE)	±11.58%	$142.12 – $179.36

The ladder scales smoothly with time — there is no kink or step-up anywhere in it, which tells you the chain isn't bracing for a dated event inside the next month.

Volatility

At-the-money implied volatility — the market's estimate of how much QCOM will move, baked into option prices — is 42.0%. IV rank is 25/100, meaning today's IV is cheaper than 75% of the past year's readings, though the percentile measure (53) says roughly half of the past year's days were below today. IV rose 5.3% on the day and is barely changed over five sessions, but it is down 40.8% over thirty and sits far under both its 30-day average (59.5%) and 90-day average (66.0%). Comparing option prices across expiration dates, the front month (44.7%) is 0.8 vol points above the 60-day tenor (43.9%) — a whisper of backwardation, and mild by this stock's own standards.

Realized movement has slowed hard. Twenty-day realized volatility is 47.3%, but the last ten days ran at 23.5%, and the ratio of the past week's movement to the past month's is unusually depressed versus this name's own norm. QCOM has gone quiet.

Premium rich or cheap? The volatility risk premium — the gap between how much movement options are priced for and how much QCOM has actually delivered — sits at about −5.3 vol points. Negative means option sellers have recently been collecting less than realized movement cost them. That reading is at the 52nd percentile of this stock's own recent history, i.e. squarely middle-of-the-road rather than an extreme. And there's a mechanical caveat that matters: the gap flipped from roughly +29 vol points in late July to negative in early August because the July 29 earnings gap rolled into the 20-day realized-volatility window and inflated the realized leg. That flip is arithmetic, not a trader signal, and it means the negative premium is not a bargain flag. Net: IV rank 25 mildly favors owning premium over selling it, but the premium comparison is contaminated enough that it shouldn't be anyone's reason to trade this week.

Skew and sentiment

Puts are running 0.4 vol points over calls (25-delta put IV 42.9% vs call 42.5%) against a 60-day median of calls being 1.9 points richer — traders have quietly started paying up for downside protection where they weren't a month ago. The 14-day average skew was still call-favoring at −1.0 vol points, so this is a recent turn, not an entrenched one.

Sentiment in short-dated options is the most negative slice of the curve: the 0–7 day bucket reads clearly bearish, the 7–30 day bucket mildly so, and every bucket out to four months leans the same way — the summary read is broadly bearish, with no single expiration doing all the work. Seven days ago the same buckets averaged out roughly flat, so this is a fresh deterioration in the near-dated part of the curve rather than a standing condition. Working against that, peer-relative unusual flow was call-skewed on the day (three call contracts cleared the unusual bar versus one put), and that call-side skew is running above this stock's own norm — a small crack in an otherwise one-sided picture.

The key levels map

Level	Price	Why it matters
Whole-chain heaviest call strike	$200	29,571 calls open across all expirations — far overhead, mostly longer-dated paper
50-day moving average	$178.53	Price sits 10% below it; nothing near-term about this level
Call wall (Aug 28)	$175	The 6-day expiration's biggest call pile (1,471 contracts) — the ceiling this expiration actually cares about
Swing resistance	$172.12	Prior pivot cluster from the early-August rally
Heavy call strike	$170	17,983 calls open chain-wide and a top-three gamma strike; also the Sep 4 call wall
200-day moving average	$168.22	The line the August bounce failed to reclaim; swing resistance $168.87 sits on top of it
Second-largest gamma strike / invalidation	$165	14,495 calls open chain-wide, swing resistance at $165.87 — a close above kills the bearish read
Upper Bollinger band	$164.10	Top of the two-week consolidation per the technical models
Max pain (Aug 28)	$162.50	The price where the most option value would expire worthless — expirations sometimes gravitate toward it
Spot / largest gamma strike	$160.74	$160 is the single heaviest gamma strike in the whole chain; the 20-day average sits at $160.60
Lower Bollinger band	$159.50	The technical trigger line — a close below opens the $156–$157.50 zone
Active put strike	$157.50	453 contracts traded Friday against 452 open — one of the busiest near-dated puts
Structural support	$156.73	First swing-pivot shelf below the market (heuristic level, not a guaranteed floor)
Put wall (Aug 28 and chain-wide)	$150	1,550 puts open for the 6-day expiration; 18,779 across the chain — the biggest downside pile
Gamma flip estimate	≈$210	One rough estimate of the pivot; it sits far above spot, so treat it as context, not a trigger

Note the disagreement worth naming: the whole chain's heaviest call strike is $200, but the August 28 expiration's own call wall is $175. For this week, $175 is the one that matters; $200 is longer-dated paper.

Positioning and unusual flow

One rough estimate reads dealer gamma — market makers hedge the options they've sold, and in this regime that hedging tends to dampen moves — as positive for the August 28 expiration specifically. That argues for a pin-ish, range-compressed week. But the same estimate places the chain-wide flip level near $210, far above the stock, which by that measure puts spot unusually far below the pivot for this name. The two readings don't agree; both rest on an assumed dealer positioning convention, so treat the pin case as the weakest leg of this week's thesis rather than a load-bearing one.

Three non-expired flow items stood out. The Sep 4 $180 calls traded 2,184 contracts against 485 open — 4.5× turnover and roughly $159,000 of premium — an upside lottery ticket far above the market. The Aug 28 $167.50 calls traded 760 against 266 open (~$108,000), and the Aug 28 $172.50 calls 539 against 230. That is call buying clustered right at and above the levels our bearish read says should cap the stock — worth respecting as the other side of the argument. On the put side, the Aug 28 $157.50 puts turned over 453 contracts against 452 open (~$94,000), which is where the near-term downside bet is being expressed.

3 · Technical check

Both technical models read bearish and both confirm the options bias. The 3-day model (target date August 25) targets $158.90 with a $156.60–$163.60 range; the 6-day model (target date August 28) targets $158.75 with a $155.50–$165.50 range. Both targets sit comfortably inside the options-implied range, so this is confirmation of direction with a smaller magnitude than the market is pricing — not an extension of it.

The two most decisive reads behind those calls: money flow has swung from accumulation in early August to clear distribution now, and the short-term moving-average pair crossed bearish in mid-August and has stayed there, capping the stock around $161–$162. The counterweight is a weak trend-strength reading — the models flag a range-bound tape rather than a driving downtrend, which is exactly why both assign a meaningful probability to simple chop between roughly $159 and $164.

Model vs. Market: The options market implies $151.58–$169.90 into August 28; the 6-day technical model targets $158.75. The gap means the market is priced for roughly four times the move the chart model expects — so if you agree with the direction, buying premium outright is paying for a move nobody's base case calls for. Spreads, not naked longs.

The technicals nudged strike selection one way only: the invalidation levels both models cite ($161.70 and $162.00) sit just under the $162.50 max-pain strike, so we kept the short call strikes below that cluster rather than reaching for the $175 wall.

Full technical write-ups: 3-day report → · 6-day report →

4 · Three ways the next six days can go

If QCOM pushes above the call wall ($175): that would take a 9% rip in six days — outside anything either technical model contemplates and at the very top edge of the implied range. The heaviest call open interest for this expiration sits there, and strikes that thick tend to slow rallies as they approach. Positioning above $175 thins out fast until the $180 area, so a clean break would leave little overhead structure — but nothing in this week's data argues for it.

If QCOM drifts between the walls: this is the pin case, and it's the most common outcome in a week with weak trend strength and decelerating realized movement. Max pain for August 28 is $162.50, about 1.1% above spot, and the estimated dealer gamma for this expiration is on the dampening side — both of which argue for chop in the $158–$164 band and for expiring open interest to exert a mild upward tug into Friday. That tug is the honest counterweight to the bearish flow read: the two point opposite ways, and the pin case wins more weeks than people expect.

If QCOM breaks below the put wall ($150): that's a 6.7% slide, just outside the implied range low of $151.58. Getting there means first losing $159.50 (the technical trigger) and then $156.73 (the first structural shelf). One rough estimate puts spot unusually far below the whole-chain gamma flip level for this name, which is the fragile side of that pivot — on that reading, hedging flows would amplify rather than cushion a slide once it starts. Below $150 the next heuristic support is not until $142.89.

5 · Three defined-risk structures

Prices are end-of-day midpoints as of 2026-08-21. All structures are hypothetical. Verify live prices before trading — these will be stale by the open. Every leg below trades wider than 5% of its mid, so use limit orders and expect to give up a few cents.

If you lean bearish (our lean): Aug 28 $160/$155 put debit spread

• Trade: Buy the Aug 28 $160 put, sell the Aug 28 $155 put.
• Debit: $1.97 · Max profit: $3.03 · Max loss: $1.97 · Break-even: $158.03
• Why it fits: It expresses the bearish read with a fixed cost, and the fixed cost matters when IV rank is 25 — you're not overpaying for the vol. The break-even sits right at the $158 area both technical models target, and the long strike is the chain's single heaviest gamma strike.
• Makes sense only if: you think the drift lower continues rather than the max-pain pin at $162.50 winning out.
• Invalidated if: QCOM closes above $165.
• Managing it: six days is not much runway — take profits into any touch of $158 rather than holding for maximum value at expiration, and cut it if the stock reclaims $162.50 with the spread still near entry. The short-term trend is fighting a longer downtrend that's already run 15.7% in fifty days, so the odds favor earlier profit-taking over patience.
• Liquidity note: the $160 puts quoted 40¢ wide and the $155 puts 17¢ — both above 10% of mid. Work the spread as a package with a limit near the mid.
• Analyze this position →

If you expect the range to hold: Aug 28 $155/$150 — $167.50/$172.50 iron condor

• Trade: Sell the $155 put / buy the $150 put, sell the $167.50 call / buy the $172.50 call, all Aug 28. A credit structure: you collect premium up front and keep it if the stock finishes between the short strikes.
• Credit: $1.86 · Max profit: $1.86 · Max loss: $3.14 · Break-evens: $153.14 and $169.36
• Why it fits: the long put leg sits exactly on this expiration's put wall, the estimated dealer gamma for August 28 is on the dampening side, and realized movement over the past ten days has run at half the twenty-day pace — a bet that the stock delivers less than the ±5.7% the market is pricing.
• Makes sense only if: you accept that both break-evens sit inside the implied move. The market is pricing a wider week than this condor can absorb; you're explicitly fading that.
• Health warning: the premium you're selling here has not been rich lately — the gap between implied and delivered movement is negative and sits mid-pack versus this stock's own history, so there's no volatility edge in the credit, only a range bet.
• Invalidated if: QCOM closes outside $155–$167.50 — at that point you're managing a loser, not a range.
• Managing it: close at roughly 50% of max credit; exit the tested side rather than the whole structure if only one wing is threatened; flat by Thursday's close regardless.
• Liquidity note: the $167.50 calls quoted 21¢ wide and the $150 puts 15¢ on a 68¢ mid (22%) — the far put wing is the weak link. Consider legging the put side only on a limit fill.
• Analyze this position →

If you lean bullish: Aug 28 $155/$150 put credit spread

• Trade: Sell the Aug 28 $155 put, buy the Aug 28 $150 put. You collect a credit and keep it as long as QCOM holds above $155.
• Credit: $1.01 · Max profit: $1.01 · Max loss: $3.99 · Break-even: $153.99
• Why it fits: this is the conservative way to fade our own read. The short strike sits 3.6% below spot, the long strike sits on the put wall, and the break-even at $153.99 is below the implied-move low that matters most ($151.58 is the outer edge). The max-pain pull toward $162.50 works for you.
• Makes sense only if: you read the heavy put volume as hedging into an already-beaten-down stock rather than conviction selling — a defensible view given the standing open-interest base is still call-heavy.
• Invalidated if: QCOM closes below $156.50 (the first structural shelf).
• Managing it: a 1-to-4 risk/reward means one loss erases four wins — close at 50% of the credit and don't nurse it. If the stock closes through $155, close rather than hope.
• Liquidity note: the $155 puts quoted 17¢ wide (~10% of mid) and the $150 puts 15¢ (~22%); the credit is small enough that slippage matters a lot here.
• Analyze this position →

If none of these: no trade

There's a strong case for standing aside. IV rank at 25 means credit structures are being paid thin premium, and the premium-versus-delivered-movement comparison that would normally settle the buy-or-sell question is contaminated by the July 29 report sitting inside the realized-vol window — so the usual "sell the rich vol" tiebreaker isn't available. Meanwhile every weekly leg quoted above trades 10%+ wide, which eats a meaningful slice of a six-day edge before the trade even starts. The directional read is real, but it is a lean, not a layup: the $162.50 max-pain pull and the estimated dampening dealer gamma both argue the other way inside this same expiration. If you can't take the fills at or near mid, waiting for a cleaner setup at the September 18 monthly — where the markets are genuinely tight — beats forcing a weekly.

6 · Quick FAQ

What is QCOM's expected move this week? ±$9.16 (±5.7%) into the August 28 expiration, or a $151.58–$169.90 range, per the options market's straddle pricing as of the August 21 close.

Is QCOM expected to go up or down over the next six days? Options positioning as of August 21 leans bearish — leading positioning, flow momentum, short-dated sentiment and skew all point the same way, and both technical models agree — but that's a read of what traders have already done, not a forecast. The actionable map is the $151.58–$169.90 range, the $162.50 max-pain strike, and the $157.50/$165 levels that bracket the near-term fight.

Are QCOM options expensive right now? IV rank 25/100 says option prices are lower than 75% of the past year's readings. On top of that, they're running about 5 vol points below the movement QCOM has actually delivered — a reading that sits roughly mid-pack (52nd percentile) versus this stock's own recent history. Mildly favors owning premium over selling it, but the comparison is inflated by the July 29 report sitting inside the 20-day realized-volatility window, so don't treat it as an edge.

Where is QCOM's biggest options support and resistance? For the August 28 expiration, the put wall is $150 (1,550 contracts open) and the call wall is $175 (1,471 contracts). Chain-wide, the heaviest call strike is $200 and the put wall is again $150.

What invalidates this week's read? A close above $165 — that clears the second-largest gamma strike in the chain, the $164.10 upper band both technical models cite, and the $162.50 max-pain magnet in one move.

---

Methodology & disclosures. Data: end-of-day options-chain snapshot for QCOM, 2026-08-21, generated 2026-08-22T12:01:28.546Z. Prices shown are midpoints and will differ from live markets. Momentum/positioning scores and volatility-premium comparisons are descriptive measurements of past option flow and past price movement — not investment advice, signals, forecasts, or guarantees. Earnings dates and reported results are from the data provider's earnings feed as of 2026-08-22T12:01:28.546Z; report dates can change. All trade structures are hypothetical. Every structure shown has a defined maximum loss; you can lose the entire max-loss amount. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.