QUBT Options Are Pricing a ±$0.93 Move Into August 7 — Our Positioning Read and the Charts Disagree

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The options market implies a $7.22–$9.08 range into the August 7 expiration; here's what's driving it, the one level that flips the read, and three defined-risk ways to trade it.

Published Saturday, August 1, 2026 · Data as of the 2026-07-31 close · Export generated 2026-08-01 16:24 UTC

Explore the live QUBT options data in the Detailed Options Analyzer →

Quick answer

Item	Answer
Market bias	Slightly bearish
Options-implied range (into Aug 7)	$7.22 – $9.08 (±11.4%)
Major support	$7.00 (Aug 7 put wall); $7.95–$7.98 is the nearer shelf
Major resistance	$9.00 (Aug 7 call wall)
Max pain (Aug 7)	$8.50
Dealer gamma regime (estimate)	Aug 7 expiration: positive — hedging tends to dampen moves. Whole-chain aggregate is negative, with the flip level estimated near $2.00, far below spot
Volatility condition	Flat to easing — IV rank 29/100 · premium rich: options priced ~17 vol pts above delivered movement (earnings-inflated)
Next earnings	Thursday, August 13 (during market hours) — after the Aug 7 expiration
Technical check	Diverges (bullish, 3-day and 6-day)
Best-fitting strategy	Aug 7 $8/$7 long put spread, conditional on the bounce stalling under $8.50
Analysis invalidated if	QUBT closes above $8.83

1 · What matters today

QUBT closed at $8.10 after a 9.3% five-day bounce, and our read of the options flow leans slightly bearish into the August 7 expiration. The single loudest number: 25-delta puts are priced 35.9 vol points above the equivalent calls, against a 60-day norm of roughly 7.6 points the other way. In plain terms, options the same distance below the price now cost far more than the ones above it — traders are paying up hard for crash protection even as the stock rallies. The options market prices a ±$0.93 (±11.4%) move over the next six days, or a $7.22–$9.08 range. Both technical reports we ran lean bullish, so this is a genuine disagreement, not a confirmation. A close above $8.83 kills the bearish read.

2 · What the options market is pricing

What changed this week

Price did the work: QUBT is up 9.25% over the past five trading days but still down 10.7% over twenty and 11.6% over roughly fifty. That is the tension of the week — the short-term trend read has flipped up while the medium- and long-term reads remain firmly down. The past week's pop runs against a market that is still meaningfully lower over two months; near-term flow and the bigger trend are pointing different ways, and our own inflection detector logged a fresh flip back to the bearish side on July 28.

Implied volatility barely moved on the day (−0.2%) but is up 6.1% over five sessions and down 1.9% over thirty, leaving at-the-money IV at 96.3% — just under both its 30-day average (97.6%) and its 90-day average (98.4%). Open-interest positioning drifted defensive: for every 100 calls held open there are now 75 puts, up from 72 five days ago against a 14-day average of 73. Day-to-day flow, though, was call-tilted — put/call volume of 0.32 versus a 0.70 seven-day average, on total option volume just 0.80× its 20-day norm. The biggest live build was the August 14 $8 calls, which added 2,417 contracts of open interest (261 → 2,678), with another 494 contracts arriving at the August 7 $8.50 calls. Into Friday's expiration, the settled July 31 $8 calls traded 2,159 contracts and still added 648 of open interest on the way out — history now, but it tells you where the chase was.

The put skew is the newest thing here. The three-session average of that put-minus-call premium is 38.2 vol points; the 14-day average is essentially zero. The downside bid showed up in the last three sessions, not gradually.

Expected move

The expected move is the move the options market is pricing in — derived from what straddles cost. Into August 7 it is ±11.4%, or roughly ±$0.93 around the $8.15 chain-snapshot price.

Expiration	Implied move	Range around $8.15
Aug 7 (7 DTE)	±11.4%	$7.22 – $9.08
Aug 14 (14 DTE)	±19.0%	$6.61 – $9.69
Aug 21 (21 DTE)	±24.4%	$6.16 – $10.14
Aug 28 (28 DTE)	±26.8%	$5.97 – $10.34

The rungs do not scale smoothly: the jump from ±11.4% to ±19.0% between August 7 and August 14 is far bigger than one extra week of time should buy, and that step is where the earnings paragraph below points.

Volatility

At-the-money implied volatility of 96.3% sounds enormous until you note that IV rank is 29/100 — today's IV sits cheaper than about 71% of the past year's readings for this name, and the one-year percentile is 44. The front-month read and term structure (comparing option prices across expiration dates) are unavailable today because the nearest expiration was a same-day contract — an expiry-day artifact, not a missing signal.

Two "vs its own norm" observations matter, and both are about the stock rather than the options. Twenty-day realized volatility of 79.3% is unusually depressed for QUBT — this stock has been quieter over the past month than it usually is. At the same time, the ratio of five-day to twenty-day realized movement is 1.28, well above its own norm: the last week has been noticeably more active than the month that preceded it.

Premium rich or cheap. The volatility risk premium is the gap between how much movement options are priced for and how much QUBT has actually delivered — when it's positive, option sellers have been collecting more than realized movement cost them. Right now that gap is about 17 vol points (96.3% implied against 79.3% delivered), which is richer than about two-thirds of this stock's own recent readings (67th percentile). It has been easing: the same gap was near 29 points a week ago. One caveat is mandatory, though — with the August 13 earnings report twelve days out, some of that richness is the market pre-pricing a scheduled event, not free premium. Net verdict: mildly favorable for collecting premium, but an IV rank of 29 and an earnings-inflated gap are not the combination that justifies aggressive premium selling. Defined-risk structures, not naked ones.

Earnings on the calendar

QUBT reports on Thursday, August 13, during market hours, with a consensus estimate of an expected loss of $0.05 per share. That date lands after the August 7 expiration and before August 14 — which is exactly why the implied move steps from ±11.4% to ±19.0% between those two rungs, and why the largest live open-interest build of the day sits at the August 14 $8 calls. The last two reports came in at or slightly better than expectations (a $0.03 loss against an expected $0.05 loss, then a $0.04 loss against an expected $0.04 loss). Anything expiring on August 7 carries no gap risk from the report at all.

Skew and sentiment

Skew means puts and calls the same distance from the stock price don't cost the same. Here, 25-delta puts carry 137.9% implied volatility against 102.0% for the equivalent calls — a 35.9 vol-point gap, versus a 60-day median of −7.6 points, when calls were normally the pricier side. That is an unusually stretched reading even by this stock's own volatile standards, and the steepening happened over roughly five sessions. Traders are paying a real premium to protect against a drop.

Flow points the other way at the very front of the curve. Sentiment in short-dated options (0–7 days) is mildly call-tilted at +6, the 7–30 day part is fractionally negative at −5, and the isolated reading is the 30–60 day bucket at −40 — localized put demand a month or two out, where 25-delta risk reversals show puts 52.7 points richer than calls against a positive baseline. Put/call volume of 0.32 against a 0.70 seven-day average says today's tape was call-buyers; the open-interest ratio at 0.75 versus 0.73 on a 14-day view says the standing book keeps getting a little more defensive.

The key levels map

Level	Price	Why it matters
Whole-chain heaviest call strike	$16.00	21,110 calls open across all expirations — mostly far-dated, too remote to matter this week
200-day average	$10.31	Price sits 21.5% below it; the longer-term structure is still down
Largest gamma strike	$10.00	Biggest gamma-times-open-interest pile in the chain — the first real magnet above the call wall
50-day average	$9.57	15.4% overhead; the cap on the "corrective bounce" framing
Top of the 6-day implied range	$9.08	One standard deviation up, from straddle pricing
Call wall (Aug 7)	$9.00	1,309 calls open — the heaviest call strike for the target expiration; these piles often act like barriers
Swing resistance	$8.83	Pivot cluster; a close above it invalidates this article's read
Max pain (Aug 7)	$8.50	Where the most option value would expire worthless — a mild upward magnet from here
Swing resistance / technical resistance	$8.26 – $8.33	Nearest supply shelf and the level both technical reports name
Spot / 20-day average	$8.15 / $8.14	Chain-snapshot price sits flat against its 20-day average; official close $8.10
Swing support / technical support	$7.95 – $7.98	First shelf below; the technical models' invalidation zone
Swing support	$7.44	Late-July pivot
Bottom of the 6-day implied range	$7.22	One standard deviation down
Put wall (Aug 7)	$7.00	1,308 puts open — almost a mirror image of the call wall's size
52-week low	$6.18	Price sits at the 10th percentile of its 52-week range
Whole-chain heaviest put strike	$6.00	34,789 puts open across all expirations — the chain's true floor of protection
Gamma flip estimate	≈$2.00	One rough estimate of where market-maker hedging would start amplifying selling — far below spot, so it isn't in play this week

Positioning and unusual flow

Market makers hedge the options they've sold, and the regime determines whether that hedging cushions or accelerates moves. Scoped to the August 7 expiration alone, one rough estimate puts dealers in positive gamma — hedging that tends to dampen moves and pull price toward the strikes with the most open interest. Aggregated across all ten expirations the same estimate flips negative, but its flip level is estimated near $2.00, so the amplifying regime it describes is nowhere near current prices; for this week, the dampening read is the relevant one. Both are estimates built on an assumed dealer sign convention, not observed inventory.

Three flow items stood out, none of them from expired contracts. First, the October 16 $7 calls traded 2,081 contracts for roughly $398,500 of premium — by far the largest premium print of the day and a long-dated, deep in-the-money position rather than a lottery ticket. Second, the August 14 $8 calls added 2,417 contracts of open interest, the biggest single-day build in the chain, straddling the earnings date. Third, the August 7 $8.50 puts traded 226 contracts against 171 open while open interest there fell by 100 — turnover above the standing position with the book shrinking usually means closing or rolling, not fresh conviction.

3 · Technical check (the 20%)

Both technical reports lean bullish, and both classify as a divergence against the options read. The 3-day model targets $8.35 with a $7.85–$8.40 range, resting on a rising RSI near 60, a fresh EMA crossover, a MACD cross that expanded from July 30, and ADX rising from ~15 to 21.7 with the positive directional line clearly dominant. The 6-day model targets $8.40 with a $7.75–$8.55 range and names the same evidence, plus a double-bottom base near $7.15–$7.30 as the launch pad.

Both reports also volunteer the caveat that matters most to us: price remains roughly 15% below its 50-day average and 21% below its 200-day, so this is explicitly framed as a corrective rally inside a larger downtrend. That is the same tension our multi-horizon trend read produced — near-term up, medium and long-term down — arriving from a completely different direction. Their invalidation is a close back below $7.95–$7.97; ours is a close above $8.83.

Model vs. Market: The options market implies $7.22–$9.08 into August 7 with max pain at $8.50; the 6-day technical model targets $8.40 inside a $7.75–$8.55 band. The technical target sits comfortably inside the implied range, so the argument isn't about magnitude — it's about which side of spot the next $0.30 comes from. A close above $8.83 settles it for the charts; a close back under $7.95 settles it for the option skew.

Practically, the technical reads shaded strikes rather than direction: the range structure's short call sits at $8.50 rather than $8.25 so it clears the $8.33 resistance both models name, and the bullish structure's short strike was placed at the $9.00 call wall.

Full technical write-ups: 3-day report → · 6-day report →

4 · Three ways the next six days can go

These are descriptions of how positioning tends to behave, not forecasts. Worth noting on timing: the editor's calendar has ISM Manufacturing PMI and construction spending — 10:00 a.m. on Monday, August 3 and the July employment report—nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate and wage growth — 8:30 a.m. on Friday, August 7 — the payrolls print lands the morning this expiration settles. The chain shows no obvious footprint of it (front-week IV is unremarkable and the expected-move ladder rises without a bump before August 13), but a 96%-IV small cap tends to trade with risk appetite regardless.

If QUBT pushes above the call wall ($9.00): the heaviest call open interest for this expiration sits right there, and those piles tend to slow rallies as hedging flows lean against the move. A clean break leaves thinner positioning until the $10 gamma cluster, which also happens to be where the 50-day average ($9.57) sits in between. That path requires the technical case to win outright.

If QUBT drifts between the walls ($7.00–$9.00): the base case. Max pain for August 7 is $8.50, a modest pull upward from $8.15, and the expiration's own dealer-gamma estimate is the dampening kind — the combination argues for chop that grinds toward the $8.26–$8.50 shelf and stalls there rather than a clean trend either way. This is why the bearish lean is "slightly," not "firmly."

If QUBT breaks below the put wall ($7.00): the acceleration case, but the file's own gamma-flip estimate near $2.00 does not support a market-maker-amplification story anywhere near current prices — spot sits unusually far above that estimate for this name. What's actually below is structure: the $7.44 pivot, the bottom of the implied range at $7.22, then the 52-week low at $6.18 and the chain's true wall of protection at $6.00, where 34,789 puts are held open.

5 · Three defined-risk structures

Prices are end-of-day midpoints as of 2026-07-31. All structures are hypothetical. Verify live prices before trading — these will be stale by the open.

If you lean bearish: Aug 7 $8/$7 long put spread

• Trade: Buy the Aug 7 $8 put, sell the Aug 7 $7 put
• Debit: $0.29 · Max profit: $0.71 ($71 per 1-lot) · Max loss: $0.29 ($29, the debit) · Break-even: $7.71
• Why it fits: it expresses the slightly bearish composite directly, and selling the $7 wing recovers part of what the 35.9-vol-point put skew makes you overpay for. A short-term uptrend fighting a two-month downtrend argues for short-dated directional risk, not a swing position.
• Makes sense only if: you think the five-day bounce stalls in the $8.26–$8.50 shelf rather than clearing it.
• Invalidated if: QUBT closes above $8.50.
• Earnings exposure: expires six days before the August 13 report — no earnings-gap risk.
• Managing it: take profit at ~60–70% of the spread's max value, or on any trade down to $7.44. Because the payrolls print lands the morning of expiration, closing on Thursday August 6 beats holding a 0-DTE binary.
• Liquidity note: the $8 puts quoted $0.29/$0.38 (9¢ wide, ~27% of mid) and the $7 puts $0.03/$0.07 — a penny market where a 2¢ slip is 7% of the trade's cost. Limit orders only; this is the main friction in the idea.
• Analyze this position →

If you expect the range to hold: Aug 7 $7/$8 – $8.50/$9.50 iron condor

• Trade: Sell the Aug 7 $8 put / buy the $7 put, and sell the Aug 7 $8.50 call / buy the $9.50 call. A credit structure: you collect premium up front and keep it if price finishes between the short strikes.
• Credit: $0.45 · Max profit: $0.45 ($45) · Max loss: $0.55 ($55) · Break-evens: $7.55 and $8.95
• Why it fits: max pain at $8.50 sits on the upper short strike, the expiration's own dealer-gamma estimate is the dampening kind, and the option-implied corridor ($7.00 put wall / $9.00 call wall) brackets the wings.
• Health warning: the $7.55–$8.95 profit zone is narrower than the ±11.4% the market prices — you are being paid to bet on a pin, with both shorts near the money on a 96%-IV name. And IV rank 29 means this premium is not rich by 52-week standards; the richness that does exist is partly the August 13 report being pre-priced.
• Makes sense only if: you actively want the chop case and will manage it daily.
• Invalidated if: QUBT closes outside $7.55–$8.95.
• Earnings exposure: expires before the August 13 report — no earnings-gap risk.
• Managing it: close at ~50% of max credit; close or roll the tested side the moment a short strike is breached rather than hoping; do not carry both near-the-money shorts into Friday's 8:30 a.m. payrolls print.
• Liquidity note: $8.50 calls $0.20/$0.25 (5¢), $9.50 calls $0.05/$0.07, $8 puts 9¢ wide, $7 puts 4¢ wide. Round-trip slippage across four penny-wide legs can eat a third of the credit — leg it patiently or skip it.
• Analyze this position →

If you lean bullish: Aug 7 $8/$9 long call spread

• Trade: Buy the Aug 7 $8 call, sell the Aug 7 $9 call
• Debit: $0.30 · Max profit: $0.70 ($70) · Max loss: $0.30 ($30) · Break-even: $8.30
• Why it fits: this is the trade for siding with the charts. Both technical models target $8.35–$8.40, the short strike sits exactly on the $9.00 call wall where rallies tend to slow anyway, and calls are the cheap side of a violently put-skewed chain (102.0% implied on 25-delta calls versus 137.9% on the puts).
• Makes sense only if: you weight the momentum evidence over the option skew — and note the break-even at $8.30 sits above the technical target of $8.40 only by a whisker, so this needs the upper end of the technical case, not the middle.
• Invalidated if: QUBT closes below $7.95 (both technical reports' own invalidation shelf).
• Earnings exposure: expires before the August 13 report — no earnings-gap risk.
• Managing it: take profits into $8.83–$9.00 rather than waiting for max value; a short-term uptrend running against a two-month downtrend rewards early exits.
• Liquidity note: the $8 calls quoted $0.35/$0.47 (12¢ wide, ~29% of mid) — the widest leg in any of these ideas — against 2¢ on the $9 calls. Work the order inside the spread or the fill costs you a third of the edge.
• Analyze this position →

If none of these: no trade

There is a clean case for standing aside this week, and it isn't laziness. The directional lean is mild, not emphatic; the two technical reads point the other way; and the premium that looks rich — about 17 vol points above delivered movement — is partly the August 13 earnings report being pre-priced, which means selling it is not the free money the percentile implies. Against that, an IV rank of 29 says option prices are cheaper than roughly 71% of the past year, so credit sellers aren't being paid a 52-week-generous rate either. Add front-week quotes that run 20–30% of mid on the strikes you'd actually use, and the execution drag alone can consume the theoretical edge in the condor. Waiting for Friday's payrolls print and the August 13 report to clear, then trading the resulting structure, is a defensible plan.

6 · Quick FAQ

What is QUBT's expected move into August 7? ±$0.93, or ±11.4%, implying a $7.22–$9.08 range — from the options market's straddle pricing as of the July 31 close.

Is QUBT expected to go up or down over the next six days? Options positioning as of July 31 leans slightly bearish — puts are 35.9 vol points richer than calls against a norm where calls are usually the pricier side — but that's a read of what traders have already done, not a forecast. The actionable map is the $7.22–$9.08 range with $7.00 and $9.00 as the option-derived rails and $8.50 as the expiration's gravity point.

Are QUBT options expensive right now? Two lenses. IV rank 29/100 says option prices are lower than 71% of the past year's readings. On top of that, they're running about 17 vol points above the movement QUBT has actually delivered over 20 days — richer than roughly 67% of this stock's own recent readings. The verdict is "mildly rich, not compellingly so," and part of that richness is the August 13 report rather than free premium.

Where is QUBT's biggest options support and resistance? For the August 7 expiration, the put wall is $7.00 (1,308 contracts open) and the call wall is $9.00 (1,309 open). Across the whole chain the heaviest strikes sit much further out — $6.00 on the put side and $16.00 on the call side — and those aggregate levels are not this week's levels.

What invalidates this read? A close above $8.83, the next swing-resistance shelf, with only the $9.00 call wall above it. At that point the technical case has won and the put skew becomes hedging into an intact bounce rather than conviction.

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Methodology & disclosures. Data: end-of-day options-chain snapshot for QUBT, 2026-07-31, generated 2026-08-01T16:24:48.705Z. Prices shown are midpoints and will differ from live markets. Momentum/positioning scores and volatility-premium comparisons are descriptive measurements of past option flow and past price movement — not investment advice, signals, forecasts, or guarantees. Earnings dates and reported results are from the data provider's earnings feed as of 2026-08-01T16:24:48.705Z; report dates can change. All trade structures are hypothetical. Every structure shown has a defined maximum loss; you can lose the entire max-loss amount. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.