QUBT Options Are Pricing a ±$0.85 Move Into August 21 — And Max Pain Sits Above the Stock

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The options market implies an $8.14–$9.84 range into the August 21 expiration; here's what's driving it, where the magnets sit, and three defined-risk ways to trade it.

Published Saturday, August 15, 2026 · Data as of the August 14 close · Export generated August 15, 2026

Explore the live QUBT options data in the Detailed Options Analyzer →

Quick answer

Item	Answer
Market bias	Neutral
Options-implied range (into Aug 21)	$8.14 – $9.84 (±9.4%)
Major support	$8.78 (two-week consolidation floor); $8.00 is the whole chain's heaviest put strike
Major resistance	$10.00 (heaviest call open interest in the chain and the biggest gamma pile)
Max pain (Aug 21)	$10.00 — a shade above the top of the implied range
Dealer gamma regime (estimate)	Positive across the whole chain (hedging tends to dampen moves), but negative for the Aug 21 expiration on its own (hedging tends to amplify); the aggregate flip level estimate near $2.00 sits so far below the stock that it carries no information this week
Volatility condition	Falling hard — IV rank 9/100 · premium roughly fair: options priced about 3.8 vol points above delivered movement (post-report distortion, see below)
Technical check	Mixed — both technical models read bullish ($9.15 target at 3 and 6 days), but their targets sit comfortably inside what options already price
Best-fitting strategy	Long $9/$10 call vertical expiring Aug 21 — cheap premium, maximum payoff exactly at the $10 magnet
Analysis invalidated if	QUBT closes below $8.78

1 · What matters today

QUBT closed Friday at $9.01, and our read of the options data comes out Neutral — the signals genuinely disagree with each other this week. Flow is call-tilted and implied volatility (the market's estimate of how much QUBT will move, baked into option prices) has collapsed, but the cost of downside protection jumped sharply in the last five sessions. The options market prices a ±9.4% move into the August 21 expiration, roughly $8.14 to $9.84.

Two levels do the work. $10.00 is where max pain sits for this expiration — the price at which the most option value would expire worthless — and it is also the strike with the biggest pile of open call contracts in the entire chain. $8.78 is the floor of the two-week consolidation; a close below it breaks the base and voids this read. Both technical models we checked lean bullish with a $9.15 target, well inside the options-implied range.

2 · What the options market is pricing

What changed this week

The headline change is volatility, and it is dramatic. At-the-money implied volatility finished Friday at 73.2%, down 23.3% in a single session and 42.0% over five. That is far below its 30-day average of 95.2% and its 90-day average of 99.2%. IV rank — where today's IV sits versus the past year — dropped to 9/100, meaning option prices are cheaper than 91% of the past year's readings; the seven-day average of that same measure was 22 and the fourteen-day average 25. Volatility has been bled out of this chain fast.

Positioning tilted the other way from prices. Put/call volume — how much put activity there is relative to calls — printed 0.31, meaning only 31 puts traded for every 100 calls, against a fourteen-day average of 0.55. Open interest (contracts currently held open) tells the same story: the put/call open-interest ratio slipped to 0.62 from a fourteen-day average of 0.69, so puts have been thinning while calls build. The largest single open-interest change anywhere in the chain was the September 18 $12 calls, which added 5,106 contracts to reach 6,469 — a far out-of-the-money, month-out call build. Into Friday's expiry, the settled $9.50 calls had added 2,043 contracts of open interest; that is history now, not a live level.

The horizons disagree, and that is worth saying plainly: QUBT is down 1.6% over the past week, up 15.9% over the past month, and down 19.2% over roughly the past two and a half months. The near-term flow and the bigger trend point in different directions, which is exactly the kind of tape that produces a neutral read rather than a clean one. Our flow-momentum read also flipped from a week averaging solidly positive to a modestly negative print on Friday — a one-day shift, not an established turn.

Expected move

The expected move is the move the options market is pricing in — derived from what straddles cost. Into the August 21 expiration, that is ±9.4%, or about ±$0.85 around the $8.99 chain-snapshot price: a band of $8.14 to $9.84.

Expiration	Implied move	Range around $8.99
Fri, Aug 21 (7 days)	±9.4%	$8.14 – $9.84
Fri, Aug 28 (14 days)	±13.4%	$7.79 – $10.19
Fri, Sep 4 (21 days)	±14.8%	$7.66 – $10.32
Fri, Sep 18 (35 days)	±21.8%	$7.03 – $10.95

Doubling the horizon from one week to two adds only about 42% to the implied move — the ordinary square-root-of-time scaling. There is no lumpy step-up anywhere in the ladder, which is what you would expect from a chain with no scheduled event inside the window.

Volatility

Beyond the collapse in IV rank, the shape across expirations is calm. The front week prices about 68% implied volatility while the mid-October rung prices about 80% — a normal upward slope, the shape you get when nobody is bidding up near-dated protection for a specific date. (The summary front-month reading is unavailable today because Friday was itself an expiration; that is an expiry-day artifact, not missing data.)

The stock has also gone quiet. Twenty-day realized volatility — how much QUBT has actually been moving — is 69.4%, while the last five sessions have run at only about a third of that twenty-day pace. Compared against this stock's own recent history, that five-day-versus-twenty-day slowdown is an unusually deep lull for QUBT, and twenty-day realized vol itself is running below its own norm. Quiet tape, cheap options, narrow price range: the chain is coiled.

Premium rich or cheap. The volatility risk premium is the gap between how much movement options are priced for and how much QUBT has actually delivered — when it's positive, option sellers have been collecting more than realized movement cost them. That gap currently sits at about 3.8 vol points (73.2% implied against 69.4% delivered), which lands at the 47th percentile versus this stock's own recent readings: richer than about 47% of them, which is to say dead middle. The daily path has been noisy rather than trending — the gap ran to roughly 26 vol points on Wednesday, sat slightly negative on Tuesday, and closed the week near 4. One caveat matters: QUBT reported quarterly results on August 10 (a $0.05 per-share loss against an expected $0.05 loss), and that report's price action still sits inside the twenty-day realized-vol window, so this comparison is mechanically distorted and should not be read as a clean edge in either direction. Put the two lenses together — IV rank at 9 and a middling premium over delivered movement — and there is no compelling case for selling premium here; if anything, cheap options favour owning defined-risk directional exposure over collecting thin credit.

Skew and sentiment

Skew is the observation that puts and calls the same distance from the stock price don't cost the same — when puts are pricier, traders are paying up for crash protection. This is the week's single biggest change. The 25-delta put now trades at 72.5% implied volatility against 63.0% for the matching call: puts are running 9.6 vol points over calls, against a 60-day median of minus 10.3 points for this name. QUBT normally trades with calls bid; today it is nearly 20 vol points steeper than its own norm, and the steepening happened over just five sessions. That reading sits well outside where this stock's protection pricing usually lives, and it is the main reason the bias arithmetic refuses to lean up.

Sentiment in short-dated options is mixed. The 0–7 day bucket reads modestly bullish, driven by call open interest building (+545 calls versus −1,320 puts on matched contracts), while the 8–30 day bucket reads modestly bearish on exactly the skew described above, and the longest bucket is the weakest of the four. A week ago the same four buckets were uniformly positive. Meanwhile the pace of call-side sweeps — unusual call buying relative to peer contracts — was unusually weak for this name on Friday: two call contracts versus one put cleared the peer-unusual bar, against stretches earlier this month with five to eight. Enthusiasm cooled without flipping.

One more descriptive note: our leading positioning read carries a compression score near its top end, a "coiled spring" condition that fires when IV rank sits near its 52-week lows and is still contracting. It is direction-neutral by construction — it says a bigger move may be loading, not which way.

The key levels map

Level	Price	Why it matters
Call wall, Aug 21 expiration	$16.00	19,622 contracts, but deep out-of-the-money leftover positioning — not a live barrier this week
Swing resistance (heuristic)	$10.17 / $10.53	Prior pivot cluster from the July breakdown
Max pain / heaviest call OI / biggest gamma pile	$10.00	Aug 21 max pain; also this expiration's heaviest put strike (15,281) and the whole chain's heaviest call strike (28,259). Note the disagreement: the chain-wide call wall is $10 while this expiration's own is $16
200-day moving average	$9.88	Price sits 8.8% below it — the long-term trend is still down
Top of options-implied range	$9.84	Upper rail of the ±9.4% band into Aug 21
Swing resistance	$9.35	Measured-move zone flagged by the technical models
Chart resistance	$9.11	Upper Bollinger band and consolidation ceiling in both technical reports
50-day moving average	$9.03	Price is 0.3% below it — the immediate line in the sand
Friday's close	$9.01	Chain-snapshot price was $8.99; a normal few-cent vendor-timing gap
Nearest swing support	$8.83	First shelf under the market
Consolidation floor / kill switch	$8.78	Lower Bollinger band and the base of the two-week range; a close below voids this read
20-day moving average	$8.40	Price sits 7.3% above it — the near-term uptrend cushion
Bottom of options-implied range	$8.14	Lower rail of the ±9.4% band
Heaviest put strike in the chain	$8.00	25,609 contracts — the options-side floor if the base gives way
52-week low	$6.18	QUBT sits in the bottom 15% of its 52-week range (high $25.84)

Positioning and unusual flow

Dealer gamma describes how market makers hedge the options they've sold; in a positive-gamma regime that hedging tends to dampen moves, in a negative-gamma regime it tends to amplify them. Both figures here are estimates built on an assumed sign convention, not observed dealer inventory. Across the whole chain, one rough estimate reads positive — dampening. Scoped to the August 21 expiration alone, the same estimate reads negative. For a six-day trade, the expiration-specific reading is the one that applies: hedging in this week's contracts is more likely to add fuel to a break than to absorb it. The aggregate flip level estimate lands near $2.00, so far beneath the stock that it should be treated as an artifact rather than a level.

Three live flow items stood out, all in non-expired contracts:

• Aug 21 $9 calls — 1,226 contracts traded against 2,907 open, roughly $41,000 of premium changing hands. That is the biggest single-contract premium in the front week, and it sits right at the money.
• Aug 21 $10 calls — 1,296 traded against 10,145 open. This is the largest genuinely near-the-money open position in the expiration, and it is the same strike as max pain.
• Aug 21 $8.50 puts — open interest jumped from 403 to 1,018 in a single session. Protection went on just below the market, which is consistent with the skew steepening described above.

3 · Technical check

Both technical reports read bullish, and both land on the same $9.15 target. The 3-day model sees a range of $8.80–$9.22 into Tuesday, August 18; the 6-day model sees $8.68–$9.30 into Friday, August 21. Their reasoning is consistent: a fresh MACD bullish crossover, money-flow turning to accumulation on the latest bar, and trend-strength (ADX 25.6 with the positive directional line dominant) confirming that the early-August impulse hasn't broken — all inside a narrowing consolidation between $8.78 and $9.11. Both also flag the same tension we see in the price structure: QUBT remains below its 50-day ($9.03) and well below its 200-day ($9.88) moving averages.

Against the options read, this classifies as mixed. The technical direction is more decisive than anything the options data produces, but the technical targets and ranges sit entirely inside the options-implied band — so the chart models are not asking for a move the market isn't already paying for. The practical effect on strike selection below: it pushes the bullish structure's short strike out to $10.00 (aligning with max pain) rather than crowding it at $9.50, and it argues for taking directional profits early rather than holding to expiry, because a bullish short-term read is fighting a two-month downtrend.

Model vs. Market: The options market implies $8.14–$9.84 into August 21; the 6-day technical model targets $9.15 within an $8.68–$9.30 range. The chart model's band is less than half the width of the options band — the market is charging for roughly twice the movement the technical read expects, which is the cleanest argument this week for owning cheap defined-risk optionality rather than selling it.

Full technical write-ups: 3-day report → · 6-day report →

4 · Three ways the next six days can go

If QUBT pushes above $9.11: the chart ceiling and the 50-day average ($9.03) sit almost on top of each other, and above them positioning thins out until $10.00 — where the chain's heaviest call open interest and its largest gamma concentration both sit. That strike is also this expiration's max pain, so as Friday approaches, hedging flows around it tend to become magnetic rather than repellent. Positioning of this shape typically slows a rally into the strike rather than stopping it dead below.

If QUBT drifts between $8.78 and $9.11: this is the pin case, and it is the base case for a stock whose five-day realized movement has slowed to a third of its monthly pace. The $9 strike carries the front week's heaviest live interest (2,907 calls and 2,322 puts open), so expiring open interest there tends to keep price magnetised. What makes this week unusual is that the max-pain math points up, not down: at $10.00 it sits above the stock and above the top of the implied range, so the pin arithmetic pulls toward the upper half of the range rather than the lower.

If QUBT breaks below $8.78: the next options shelf is $8.00, the heaviest put strike in the chain. This is the branch where the negative dealer-gamma estimate for the August 21 expiration matters — under the assumed sign convention, one rough estimate suggests market-maker hedging in this week's contracts amplifies selling rather than cushioning it, and the implied range's floor at $8.14 is only about 4% below the consolidation base. Compression this tight tends to resolve quickly once a boundary goes.

5 · Three defined-risk structures

Prices are end-of-day midpoints as of August 14. All structures are hypothetical unless flagged as an entered position. Verify live prices before trading — these will be stale by the open.

If you lean bullish: long $9/$10 call vertical

• Trade: Buy the Aug 21 $9 call, sell the Aug 21 $10 call (a debit spread — you pay up front and are betting on a move up to the short strike).
• Debit: $0.25 · Max profit: $0.75 · Max loss: $0.25 · Break-even: $9.25
• Why it fits: IV rank at 9/100 means you are buying the cheapest options this name has offered in a year, and the spread pays its maximum at exactly $10.00 — this expiration's max pain and the chain's heaviest call strike. Both technical models point at $9.15, just under the break-even, so this needs a little more than the chart models expect.
• Makes sense only if: you accept that the trade needs a clean break of $9.11 within six days, not just a drift.
• Invalidated if: QUBT closes below $8.78.
• Managing it: take profits at roughly 60% of maximum value rather than holding for the last few cents; exit regardless by Wednesday, August 19 if $9.11 hasn't been cleared. A bullish short-term read fighting a two-month downtrend argues for early profit-taking.
• Liquidity note: the $9 calls quoted 7¢ wide and traded 1,226 contracts (about $41,000 of premium); the $10 calls quoted 3¢ wide on 1,296 contracts. In percentage terms those spreads are 20–35% of mark — on a $9 stock that is normal, but work limit orders at the mid and never pay the ask.
• Analyze this position →

If you expect the range to hold: $8.00/$7.50 – $10.00/$10.50 iron condor

• Trade: Sell the Aug 21 $8.00 put and buy the $7.50 put; sell the Aug 21 $10.00 call and buy the $10.50 call (a credit structure — you collect premium up front and keep it if the stock stays between the short strikes).
• Credit: $0.08 · Max profit: $0.08 · Max loss: $0.42 · Break-evens: $7.92 and $10.08
• Why it fits: both short strikes sit just outside the ±9.4% implied move, the short call is parked at the chain's heaviest call strike, and the short put is parked at its heaviest put strike — the two thickest walls in the book.
• Makes sense only if: you are genuinely comfortable risking $42 to make $8. Health warning: with IV rank at 9/100 and the premium-over-delivered gap sitting mid-pack and distorted by the August 10 report, you are selling option premium that has not been rich lately. That ratio is the direct cost of cheap volatility, not a mispricing.
• Invalidated if: QUBT closes outside $8.78–$9.11, the consolidation boundaries — that is the early warning, well before either short strike is threatened.
• Managing it: close at roughly 50% of max credit; exit regardless by Thursday, August 20 to avoid expiration-day gamma; if either short strike trades through, close rather than hope.
• Liquidity note: the $8 puts traded 2¢ wide on 280 contracts and the $10 calls 3¢ wide on 1,296; the $7.50 put and $10.50 call wings are thin (25 and 101 contracts traded) — leg risk is real, so submit the four legs as one order.
• Analyze this position →

If you lean bearish: long $9/$8 put vertical

• Trade: Buy the Aug 21 $9 put, sell the Aug 21 $8 put (a debit spread — you pay up front and are betting on a move down to the short strike).
• Credit/Debit: $0.29 debit · Max profit: $0.71 · Max loss: $0.29 · Break-even: $8.71
• Why it fits: this is the structure that expresses the week's most striking data point — puts running 9.6 vol points over calls against a norm of calls being 10 points richer, a roughly 20-point swing in protection pricing in five sessions. It also aligns with the negative dealer-gamma estimate specific to this expiration, and its short strike sits on the chain's heaviest put wall.
• Makes sense only if: $8.78 gives way — the break-even sits below it, so this needs the base to fail, not merely to wobble.
• Invalidated if: QUBT closes above $9.11.
• Managing it: take profits at roughly 60% of maximum value; exit if the stock reclaims $9.11, and in any case before Friday's expiration-day pin dynamics take over.
• Liquidity note: the $9 puts quoted 6¢ wide on 417 contracts and the $8 puts 2¢ wide on 280 contracts against 3,261 open — both are among the better-quoted contracts in the expiration.
• Analyze this position →

If none of these: no trade

Standing aside is defensible this week, and the reason is structural rather than timid. IV rank at 9/100 means credit structures pay very little — the condor above risks more than five times what it collects — while the gap between priced-in and delivered movement is mid-pack and mechanically contaminated by the August 10 report still sitting inside the realized-vol window, so there is no clean premium edge to harvest in either direction. On the other side, the directional structures need a resolution of an $8.78–$9.11 range that has held for two weeks, and our bias arithmetic explicitly refuses to pick which way it breaks. Waiting for a close outside that range costs you a day or two of premium and buys you the one piece of information the chain does not currently contain.

6 · Quick FAQ

What is QUBT's expected move this week? About ±9.4%, or ±$0.85 — a range of $8.14 to $9.84 into the August 21 expiration, per the options market's straddle pricing as of the August 14 close.

Is QUBT expected to go up or down over the next six days? The honest answer is that the data describes positioning, not the future. Options positioning as of August 14 comes out neutral — call-tilted flow and collapsing implied volatility on one side, a sharp jump in the cost of downside protection on the other. What is actionable is the map: the $8.14–$9.84 range, the $8.78 floor, and the $10.00 magnet where max pain and the heaviest call open interest both sit.

Are QUBT options expensive right now? No. IV rank 9/100 says option prices are lower than 91% of the past year's readings; on top of that they're running about 3.8 vol points above the movement QUBT has actually delivered — richer than only about 47% of this stock's own recent readings, which is the middle of the pack. That combination favours owning defined-risk premium over selling it, with the caveat that the August 10 report's price action still sits inside the realized-vol window and distorts the comparison.

Where is QUBT's biggest options support and resistance? For the whole chain, the heaviest put strike is $8.00 (25,609 contracts) and the heaviest call strike is $10.00 (28,259 contracts). The August 21 expiration on its own has its heaviest put open interest at $10.00 and a deep out-of-the-money call cluster at $16.00 — the two views disagree, and the chain-wide numbers are the ones that describe realistic barriers this week.

What invalidates this week's read? A close below $8.78.

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Methodology & disclosures. Data: end-of-day options-chain snapshot for QUBT, 2026-08-14, generated 2026-08-15T10:28:52Z. Prices shown are midpoints and will differ from live markets. Momentum/positioning scores and volatility-premium comparisons are descriptive measurements of past option flow and past price movement — not investment advice, signals, forecasts, or guarantees. Earnings dates and reported results are from the data provider's earnings feed as of 2026-08-15T10:28:52Z; report dates can change. All trade structures are hypothetical. Every structure shown has a defined maximum loss; you can lose the entire max-loss amount. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.