RGTI Options Are Pricing a $1.90 Move — But the Heaviest Open Interest Still Sits at $17

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The options market implies a $16.91–$20.72 range into the August 21 expiration; here's what's driving it and three defined-risk ways to trade the next six days.

Published Saturday, August 15, 2026 · Data as of the August 14 close

Explore the live RGTI options data in the Detailed Options Analyzer →

Quick answer

Item	Answer
Market bias	Neutral with a bullish tilt
Options-implied range (into Aug 21)	$16.91 – $20.72 (±10.1%)
Major support	$17.00 (whole chain's heaviest put strike; Aug 21 max pain)
Major resistance	$20.00 (whole chain's heaviest call strike)
Max pain (Aug 21)	$17.00
Dealer gamma regime (estimate)	Positive — hedging tends to dampen moves; flip level ≈ $20 (estimate)
Volatility condition	Falling — IV rank 4/100 · premium thin: options priced ~19 vol points below delivered movement (post-report distorted)
Technical check	Confirms (bullish, 6-day)
Best-fitting strategy	Aug 21 $18/$20 call debit spread
Analysis invalidated if	RGTI closes below $17.80

1 · What matters today

RGTI closed Thursday at $18.82 after a 4.9% week and a 33% month. Our read of options flow leans mildly positive — call open interest is building faster than put open interest, and short-dated sentiment is constructive — but it is a tilt, not a conviction call. The single most useful number is the expected move: the move the options market is pricing in, derived from what straddles cost, is roughly ±$1.90 (±10.1%) through Friday, August 21, which frames a $16.91–$20.72 range.

Two levels do the work. Above, $20.00 holds the chain's heaviest pile of open call contracts. Below, $17.00 holds the heaviest put pile and is where the most option value would expire worthless on August 21 — expirations sometimes drift toward that price. A close below $17.80 kills the constructive read. Both technical reports we checked lean bullish and sit inside the implied range.

2 · What the options market is pricing

What changed this week

The dominant story is volatility collapse. At-the-money implied volatility — the market's estimate of how much RGTI will move, baked into option prices — fell 19.2% over five sessions and 26.0% over thirty, landing at 73.3% against a 30-day average of 98.1%. IV rank sank to 4/100 versus a 7-day average of 12.7 and a 14-day average of 20.9. In plain terms: option buyers are paying less for RGTI exposure than at almost any point in the past year, and the discount widened fast.

Flow tilted call-side while that happened. Put/call volume came in at 0.34 — for every 100 call contracts traded there were 34 puts — against a 7-day average of 0.42. Put/call open interest slipped to 0.67 from a 14-day average of 0.74, so puts are being retired faster than calls. The biggest single build in live contracts was the August 21 $17 calls, up 6,681 contracts to 9,016 open — deep-in-the-money call inventory being added right on top of the chain's heaviest put strike. (Into Friday's expiration, the settled August 14 $20.50 calls added 5,226 contracts of open interest — history now, not a live magnet.)

One tension deserves a flag: the short- and long-term trend reads disagree. Price is up 4.9% over the past week and 33.3% over the past month, but still down 20.5% over roughly the past two months, and the stock trades 8.8% below its 200-day average at $20.62. The near-term flow and the bigger trend are pointing different ways — a reason to keep directional trades short-dated rather than to press them.

Expected move

Straddle pricing at the August 21 expiration implies about ±$1.90, or ±10.1%, around the $18.815 chain-snapshot price. That is a one-standard-deviation approximation, not a boundary.

Expiration	Implied move	Range around $18.82
Fri, Aug 21 (7 days)	±10.1%	$16.91 – $20.72
Fri, Aug 28 (14 days)	±15.1%	$15.97 – $21.66
Fri, Sep 4 (21 days)	±18.3%	$15.37 – $22.26
Fri, Sep 18 (35 days)	±25.9%	$13.94 – $23.69

The ladder scales smoothly — no kink, no step-up between rungs. Nothing in the chain is being priced as a dated event inside this window; the curve simply reflects time.

Volatility

At-the-money implied volatility sits at 73.3% with an IV rank of 4/100, meaning today's reading is cheaper than roughly 96% of the past year's. Current IV sits well under both the 30-day average (98.1%) and the 90-day average (102.4%), and the 1-day print actually ticked up 6.2% — a small bounce inside a steep downtrend. The front-month read is unavailable today: August 14 was an expiry day, so the near-tenor interpolation and the term-structure comparison across expiration dates cannot be computed.

Compared against this stock's own recent history, the underlying has gone unusually quiet: the ratio of five-day to twenty-day realized movement sits at 0.27, far below its norm for this name. The last week of trading has been dramatically calmer than the month that preceded it — which is exactly the mechanical reason implied volatility has been bleeding.

Premium rich or cheap. The volatility risk premium — the gap between how much movement options are priced for and how much RGTI has actually delivered — is running at about negative 19 vol points (73.3% implied against 92.0% realized over twenty days). When it's positive, option sellers have been collecting more than realized movement cost them; here it is deeply negative. That sits at the 24th percentile of this stock's own recent readings, meaning options have been thinner relative to delivered movement than about three-quarters of the time lately, and the series flipped negative in the first week of August and has stayed there. One important caveat: the August 6 earnings report and the outsized daily swings that followed it are still inside the twenty-day realized-volatility window, so a chunk of that negative gap is mechanical rather than an edge — as those days roll off, the gap narrows on its own. Combine that with an IV rank of 4/100, and the honest verdict is that this is a better week to own option premium than to sell it, without pretending the discount is free money.

Skew and sentiment

Puts and calls the same distance from the stock price don't cost the same. Here, 25-delta calls carry 78.4% implied volatility against 75.2% for the equivalent puts — calls are 3.2 vol points richer than puts, against a 60-day norm of 4.1 vol points. Traders in this name habitually pay up for upside rather than crash protection, and they still are, just slightly less aggressively than their own recent average. That mild narrowing is the one genuinely bearish-leaning input in our composite.

Sentiment in short-dated options is modestly positive: the 0–7 day bucket reads +9 and the 7–30 day bucket +19, with the strongest positive lean (+45) out past two months — a "positioning building further out" profile. Both near buckets have been positive for a week straight. The pace of net new call positioning is running above this stock's own norm, and total option volume was 0.96× its 20-day average — this is a positioning shift, not a volume event.

The key levels map

Level	Price	Why it matters
Call wall, Aug 21 expiration only	$28.00	17,537 contracts — a far-OTM lottery pile, not a realistic barrier this week
Top of 6-day implied range	$20.72	One standard deviation up through Friday
200-day average	$20.62	The multi-month trend line price has not reclaimed
Swing resistance	$20.17	First price-structure ceiling (heuristic)
Whole chain's heaviest call strike	$20.00	20,638 contracts open; also the estimated dealer-gamma pivot
Recent high / upper band	$19.30	Aug 13 spike high — the flag's ceiling on the technical read
Last close	$18.82	Aug 14 close
Swing support	$18.47	First price-structure floor (heuristic)
Short-term moving average	$18.31	The technical model's flag boundary and first invalidation
50-day average	$17.80	Our kill switch — a close below breaks the constructive read
Swing support	$17.71	Top of the pre-breakout shelf
Whole chain's heaviest put strike / Aug 21 max pain	$17.00	29,303 put contracts open, the largest single-strike gamma pile, and the price where the most Aug 21 option value expires worthless
Bottom of 6-day implied range	$16.91	One standard deviation down through Friday
Swing support	$16.12	Next shelf below the max-pain strike
Put wall, Aug 21 expiration only	$8.00	7,773 contracts of deep tail hedges — no bearing on this week's price action

Note the disagreement: the August 21 expiration's own walls sit at $28 and $8 — wide, thin lottery strikes with nothing in between to act as a barrier. The meaningful magnets, $20 and $17, come from the whole chain aggregated across expirations. For this week, treat the $17–$20 corridor as the working map and ignore the August 21 walls themselves.

Positioning and unusual flow

One rough estimate puts net dealer gamma positive — a regime in which market makers' hedging tends to dampen moves rather than amplify them — with the pivot estimated near $20. The August 21 expiration read agrees. But spot sits about 6% below that estimated pivot, so the cushion the headline implies is thinner than it sounds; this is an estimate built on an assumed hedging convention, not observed dealer inventory.

Three flow items stood out among live contracts. The September 4 $24 calls traded 1,897 contracts against 141 open — roughly $55,000 of premium, and more than 13 times the existing position, in a strike about 28% above spot. The August 28 $12.50 puts traded 1,001 against 60 open (~$36,000), which is somebody buying a cheap, far-away crash hedge rather than expressing a view on this week. And the August 21 $18.50 puts turned over 580 against 139 open — the only genuinely at-the-money hedging print in the near expiration. Taken together: upside lottery tickets and tail insurance, with very little conviction positioning in between.

3 · Technical check

The near-term technical model (4-day horizon, target date August 18) is bullish, targeting $19.10 with a range of $18.25–$19.35. The 6-day model (target date August 21, matching our window) is also bullish, targeting $19.35 with a range of $18.05–$19.60. Both classify as Confirms: same direction as the options read, with targets sitting comfortably inside the options-implied range.

The most decisive indicator read on both reports is trend strength: ADX at 55.9 with the positive directional line (28.8) far above the negative line (8.6) — an unusually strong, bull-controlled trend. Working against it is a short-term MACD bearish crossover and RSI cooling from 76 to 57, which both reports characterize as a flag-style pause rather than a reversal. The dominant scenario's invalidation is a close below $18.31; the deeper failure level is $17.80.

Model vs. Market: The options market implies $16.91–$20.72 into August 21; the 6-day technical model targets $19.35 inside a much tighter $18.05–$19.60 band. The two agree on direction but not on magnitude — the technical read is describing a quiet drift higher inside a range the options market thinks could be twice as wide. That is consistent with the volatility picture: realized movement has collapsed while option pricing still carries the memory of a violent month.

The practical effect on strike selection below: we cap the bullish structure at $20 rather than reaching for $21+, because both technical targets and the chain's heaviest call strike converge there.

Full technical write-ups: 3-day report → · 6-day report →

4 · Three ways the next six days can go

If RGTI pushes above $20: that strike carries the heaviest call open interest in the whole chain (20,638 contracts) and doubles as the estimated gamma pivot. Piles that size tend to slow rallies as they are approached, because hedging flows lean against the move. A clean break through leaves noticeably thinner positioning overhead until the 200-day average at $20.62 and the swing resistance shelf at $21.02.

If RGTI drifts between $17 and $20: this is the base case the positioning describes. With the estimated gamma regime positive and $17 carrying both the max-pain strike for Friday and the largest single-strike gamma pile, expiring open interest tends to exert a gentle downward pull into Friday's close, while the call pile above caps upside. A finish anywhere in the $18–$19.30 band would leave the largest number of contracts on both sides worthless.

If RGTI breaks below $17: that removes the biggest strike-level anchor on the chart and leaves the swing shelf at $16.12 as the next reference. Spot already sits about 6% under the estimated gamma pivot at $20 — an unusually close reading for this name — so the "dampening" cushion the estimate implies is not something to lean on. Below $17, one rough estimate suggests market-maker hedging shifts toward amplifying selling rather than cushioning it.

5 · Three defined-risk structures

Prices are end-of-day midpoints as of the August 14 close. All structures are hypothetical. Verify live prices before trading — these will be stale by the open.

If you lean bullish: Aug 21 $18/$20 call debit spread

• Trade: Buy the Aug 21 $18 call, sell the Aug 21 $20 call. You pay a net debit and are betting RGTI finishes above $18.88, with profit capped at $20.
• Debit: $0.88 · Max profit: $112 per spread · Max loss: $88 · Break-even: $18.88
• Why it fits: With IV rank at 4/100 and option prices running about 19 vol points below what RGTI has actually delivered, buying premium is the structurally cheaper side of the trade this week. The short strike sits exactly on the chain's heaviest call pile at $20 — the level positioning says is hardest to clear — so you are selling the resistance you don't expect to break.
• Makes sense only if: you believe the flag consolidation resolves upward and price holds above the $18.31–$18.47 support cluster.
• Invalidated if: RGTI closes below $17.80.
• Managing it: The past week's strength runs against a still-negative two-month trend, so treat this as a short-leash trade: take profits at roughly 60–70% of max value rather than holding for the full $2 width, and exit by Thursday's close regardless. A close back under $18.31 is the early warning to cut.
• Liquidity note: The $18 calls traded 10¢ wide (about 8% of mid) and the $20 calls 4¢ wide — both easily fillable; work a limit at the mid.
• Analyze this position →

If you expect the range to hold: Aug 21 $16/$17/$20/$21 iron condor

• Trade: Sell the $17 put and buy the $16 put; sell the $20 call and buy the $21 call. You collect a credit up front and keep it if RGTI finishes between the short strikes.
• Credit: $0.27 · Max profit: $27 per condor · Max loss: $73 · Break-evens: $16.73 and $20.27
• Why it fits: The short strikes are the two walls: $17 is the heaviest put pile and Friday's max-pain strike, $20 is the heaviest call pile. Both break-evens sit outside the ±10.1% implied move.
• Health warning: you're selling premium that hasn't been rich lately. With IV rank at 4/100 and the premium-versus-delivered gap in the bottom quartile of its own recent readings, you're collecting 27% of the spread width for a trade that can lose nearly three times that. This is the structure the volatility data likes least.
• Makes sense only if: you specifically want the pin case and are sized small enough that the poor credit-to-width ratio doesn't matter.
• Invalidated if: RGTI closes outside $17.00–$20.00, at which point the tested side should be closed rather than defended.
• Managing it: Close at ~50% of max credit, or by Thursday's close — the last day before expiration is where a $73 max loss gets realized fastest.
• Liquidity note: The $17 puts and $21 calls each traded 5¢ wide on small mids, the $16 puts 1¢, the $20 calls 4¢. On a four-leg structure that is meaningful slippage — use a limit on the whole package, never leg in at market.
• Analyze this position →

If you lean bearish: Aug 21 $18/$17 put debit spread

• Trade: Buy the Aug 21 $18 put, sell the Aug 21 $17 put. You pay a small debit and are betting RGTI trades down toward the max-pain strike by Friday.
• Debit: $0.24 · Max profit: $76 per spread · Max loss: $24 · Break-even: $17.76
• Why it fits: This is the max-pain trade expressed with defined risk — the short strike sits precisely on $17, where Friday's expiring open interest is heaviest, and cheap implied volatility makes the long leg unusually affordable. Risking $24 to make $76 also survives being wrong most of the time.
• Makes sense only if: you think the two-month downtrend reasserts itself and the flag fails, which is the minority scenario on both technical reports (20% on the 6-day read).
• Invalidated if: RGTI closes above $19.30, the August 13 high.
• Managing it: This is a lottery-shaped trade — size it as one. Take profit if RGTI touches $17.50 rather than waiting for a perfect pin, and let the rest expire if it doesn't get there.
• Liquidity note: The $18 puts traded 3¢ wide (about 8% of mid); the $17 puts 5¢ wide on a $0.145 mid, which is proportionally poor — use a limit and be patient on the fill.
• Analyze this position →

If none of these: no trade

There is a real case for standing aside. The bias is a tilt, not a conviction read — the five inputs behind it disagree, with positioning and momentum positive while skew leans the other way. Selling premium is unattractive here on its own merits: option prices are near their 52-week floor and are already running below delivered movement, so a credit structure pays you badly for real risk. Buying premium is cheaper than usual, but part of that cheapness is mechanical — realized volatility is still inflated by the August 6 report and the swings that followed, and it will decay on its own as those days roll out of the window. And the trend reads openly contradict each other across horizons. If your edge is directional conviction, this week doesn't supply it; waiting for a decisive close through either $20 or $17 costs nothing but patience.

6 · Quick FAQ

What is RGTI's expected move this week? About ±$1.90 (±10.1%) into the August 21 expiration, per the options market's straddle pricing as of the August 14 close — a $16.91 to $20.72 range.

Is RGTI expected to go up or down over the next six days? Options positioning as of August 14 leans mildly bullish — call open interest is building faster than put open interest and short-dated sentiment is positive — but that's a read of what traders have done, not a forecast. The actionable map is the $16.91–$20.72 range and the $17.00 / $20.00 levels.

Are RGTI options expensive right now? No. IV rank 4/100 says option prices are lower than 96% of the past year's readings; on top of that, they're running about 19 vol points below the movement RGTI has actually delivered — thinner than roughly three-quarters of this stock's own recent readings. That favors owning premium over selling it, with the caveat that recent post-report volatility is inflating the realized side of that comparison.

Where is RGTI's biggest options support and resistance? Across the whole chain, the heaviest put strike is $17.00 (29,303 contracts) and the heaviest call strike is $20.00 (20,638 contracts). The August 21 expiration's own walls sit at $8 and $28 — far-out tail strikes that don't function as barriers this week.

What invalidates this week's read? A close below $17.80.

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Methodology & disclosures. Data: end-of-day options-chain snapshot for RGTI, 2026-08-14, generated 2026-08-15T15:31:02Z. Prices shown are midpoints and will differ from live markets. Momentum/positioning scores and volatility-premium comparisons are descriptive measurements of past option flow and past price movement — not investment advice, signals, forecasts, or guarantees. Earnings dates and reported results are from the data provider's earnings feed as of 2026-08-15T15:31:02Z; report dates can change. All trade structures are hypothetical. Every structure shown has a defined maximum loss; you can lose the entire max-loss amount. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.