WMT Options Are Pricing a ±$7 Move Into August 21 — The Chart Model Sees Half That

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The options market implies a $108.21–$122.41 range into the August 21 expiration; here's what's driving it, the full levels map, and three defined-risk ways to trade it.

Published Sunday, August 16, 2026 · Data as of the 2026-08-14 close

Explore the live WMT options data in the Detailed Options Analyzer →

Quick answer

Item	Answer
Market bias	Neutral
Options-implied range (into Aug 21)	$108.21 – $122.41 (±6.16%)
Major support	$110 (heaviest near-money put strike for Aug 21; the expiration's put wall proper sits far below at $100)
Major resistance	$120 (the whole chain's heaviest call strike; the Aug 21 expiration's own call wall sits at $130)
Max pain (Aug 21)	$118
Dealer gamma regime (estimate)	For the Aug 21 expiration alone, one rough estimate reads negative — hedging tends to amplify moves; the whole-chain estimate reads positive. Flip level ≈ $130 (estimate)
Volatility condition	Falling week-over-week, still well above a month ago — IV rank 58/100 · premium rich: options priced about 9 vol points above delivered movement (earnings-inflated)
Next earnings	Wednesday, August 20 (before market open) — one day before the Aug 21 expiration
Technical check	Mixed (bullish, 3-day and 5-day horizons)
Best-fitting strategy	Aug 21 $110/$105 short put spread — only if you accept overnight gap risk through the report
Analysis invalidated if	WMT closes below $112.73

1 · What matters today

Walmart closed at $115.27 after a 3.2% five-day run, and our read of options flow lands almost exactly on the fence — the positioning composite scores a +1 out of ±100, which is as close to genuinely undecided as the arithmetic gets. What is not undecided is how much movement is being paid for. Options expiring August 21 are priced for a ±$7.10 swing, a $108.21–$122.41 range, because the earnings report lands the morning of August 20 and every tradeable expiration now sits on the far side of it. Max pain — the strike where the most option value would expire worthless — sits at $118, above spot. Both technical reads lean bullish but see a much tighter week. The level that changes the picture: a close below $112.73.

2 · What the options market is pricing

What changed this week

Price did the heavy lifting: WMT is up 3.17% over five sessions and just 0.96% over twenty, meaning almost the entire month's gain arrived in the last week. Implied volatility — the market's estimate of how much WMT will move, baked into option prices — actually fell 4.6% over those five days even as the stock rallied, though at-the-money IV of 29.3% is still 19.3% above where it sat a month ago. Put activity picked up: put volume ran at 0.73 contracts for every call, against a 7-day average of 0.51 and a 14-day average of 0.60 — noticeably more downside trading than this name's recent norm, though calls still dominate outright. Open interest tells the opposite story, with the put/call open-interest ratio easing from 1.07 to 1.04 over five days — puts are being closed while fresh put volume flows through. The biggest live open-interest build was 861 new contracts at the Aug 21 $115 puts, taking that strike to 12,896 open. (Into Friday's expiry, the $116 calls added 980 contracts of open interest on 8,678 volume — settled history now, not a live level.) One more thread worth naming: the short-term trend read turned bullish on August 10 and is now the only horizon leaning — the ~20-day and ~50-day reads are both flat, so the pop is fresh rather than part of an established push. That argues for short-dated structures and quick profit-taking, not for pressing a trend.

Expected move

Into August 21, the options market is pricing a ±6.16% move — the move derived from what straddles cost — or about ±$7.10 around the $115.31 chain-snapshot price. That is a $108.21–$122.41 range.

Expiration	Implied move	Range around $115.31
Fri, Aug 21 (7 days)	±6.16%	$108.21 – $122.41
Fri, Aug 28 (14 days)	±7.04%	$107.19 – $123.43
Fri, Sep 18 (35 days)	±8.68%	$105.30 – $125.32

Look at how flat that ladder is. Doubling the holding period from seven days to fourteen widens the priced move by only about a dollar, and stretching it to five weeks adds under three. Almost the entire August 21 number is one morning's event risk — options expiring after a scheduled earnings report price in the extra jump risk of that report, which is why the front rung carries a 44.5% at-the-money IV while the September 18 rung carries 28.0%.

Volatility

At-the-money IV across the chain is 29.3%, with an IV rank of 58/100 — today's reading is higher than 58% of the past year's, and cheaper than 42% of them. That is squarely middle-of-the-road, and notably it has cooled: the 7-day average IV rank was 64 and the 14-day average 68. Current IV sits just above both the 30-day (29.1%) and 90-day (28.3%) moving averages. The front-month read is unavailable today — August 14 was an expiry day, and front-month at-the-money IV can't be interpolated from a same-day-expiring contract. Meanwhile the stock itself has been unusually calm for this name: 20-day realized volatility of 20.3% sits well below WMT's own recent norm, and the 10-day figure is lower still at 13.8%.

Premium rich or cheap. The volatility risk premium — the gap between how much movement options are priced for and how much WMT has actually delivered — stands at about 9 vol points, with implied at 29.3% against 20.3% delivered. That gap is richer than roughly 78% of this stock's own recent readings, and it has been climbing steadily: it was slightly negative in mid-July, crossed zero around July 17, and has been positive every session since. Normally that combination — IV rank 58 and a 78th-percentile premium over delivered movement — would argue for collecting premium rather than owning it. Here it does not, and the reason is mundane: some of that richness is the market pre-pricing the August 20 report, not free premium. Sellers are being paid more because a scheduled, binary event sits inside the window. The vs-its-own-norm reading on the same gap is stretched too, which only reinforces that this is an event premium, not an edge.

Earnings on the calendar

WMT reports Wednesday, August 20, before market open — four days from the export's generation date and one session before the August 21 expiration. The chain shows it plainly: at-the-money IV steps from 28.0% at the September 18 rung to 36.0% at August 28 and 44.5% at August 21, so the shortest-dated options are the most expensive in percentage terms despite having the least calendar time. Consensus sits at $0.73 per share. Of the last four reports, one came in line with expectations, one below, and two above. No expiration currently listed lands before the report.

Skew and sentiment

Skew — the fact that puts and calls the same distance from the stock price don't cost the same — is doing something mildly unusual here. The 25-delta put trades at 28.6% IV versus 28.9% for the 25-delta call, so puts are running 0.3 vol points cheaper than calls, against a 60-day median of puts being 0.4 points richer. That is about 0.7 vol points flatter than this name's own norm: nobody is paying up for crash protection into the print, which reads as complacency rather than conviction. On the flow side, the day's put-heavy volume mix was unusually put-tilted versus this stock's recent baseline, which sits oddly next to the flat skew — heavier put trading, but no premium being bid for it.

Sentiment in short-dated options is nearly flat at the front (a +2 score in the 0–7 day bucket, down from a 22 average over the past week) and firms up as you move out the curve: +12 in the 7–30 day bucket, +21 in 30–60 days, +40 beyond that. The summary phrase our term read produces is "bullish recovery" — positioning is building further out rather than in the expiring week. Price momentum itself is running unusually strong for this name versus its own history, which is the single most bullish observation in the file.

The key levels map

Level	Price	Why it matters
Call wall, Aug 21 expiration	$130	13,267 open call contracts — the biggest pile for this expiration, but far above spot; also where the whole-chain gamma-flip estimate sits
Upper implied rail	$122.41	Top of the options-implied range into Aug 21
Whole chain's heaviest call strike	$120	51,476 calls open across all expirations, 12,306 of them for Aug 21 — the first real overhead shelf
200-day moving average	$118.32	Overhead trend line, still unreclaimed (price 2.6% below)
Max pain, Aug 21	$118	The strike where the most option value would expire worthless — expirations sometimes gravitate toward it
Swing resistance	$117.81	Recent pivot cluster (heuristic)
Prior swing high	$116.50	Resistance named by both technical reports
Spot / heaviest gamma strike	$115.27 close ($115.31 chain snapshot)	$115 carries the largest total gamma-weighted open interest in the chain
50-day moving average	$114.49	Price sits 0.7% above it
Short-term EMA cluster	$114.35	The technical models' stated invalidation level
Swing support	$112.73	First structural shelf below — and this article's kill switch
20-day moving average	$112.13	Price sits 2.8% above it
Heavy Aug 21 put strike	$110	12,403 puts open — the nearest downside magnet with real size
Lower implied rail	$108.21	Bottom of the options-implied range into Aug 21
Put wall, Aug 21 expiration	$100	34,429 puts open — the expiration's true put wall, but a disaster-hedge zone rather than a working level

Worth flagging: the August 21 expiration's own walls ($130 call, $100 put) sit far outside where the whole chain's walls sit ($120 call, $100 put), because that expiration inherited a lot of long-dated positioning at round strikes. For a one-week trade, the strikes that actually matter are $120 overhead and $110 below — that is where near-money open interest is concentrated.

Positioning and unusual flow

Dealer gamma — market makers hedge the options they've sold, and in one regime that hedging dampens moves while in the other it amplifies them — is where the aggregate and the expiration disagree. Across the full chain, one rough estimate reads positive (dampening). Scoped to August 21 alone, the same estimate flips negative, meaning hedging into that expiration would tend to amplify rather than cushion. Both are estimates built on an assumed dealer sign convention, not observed inventory. One more descriptive note: spot sits unusually far below the estimated flip level for this name — an extreme reading versus WMT's own recent history, and the fragile side of that line.

The day's biggest dollar flows were both at-the-money puts spanning the report. The September 18 $115 puts traded 3,303 contracts for about $1.26 million of premium; the August 28 $115 puts traded 3,581 contracts for roughly $1.14 million against just 313 contracts of prior open interest — more than eleven times the existing open position, which is the signature of fresh hedging rather than closing. Closer in, the August 21 $111 puts traded 2,968 contracts against 2,458 open. Together that is a lot of money buying at- and near-the-money downside for a chain where skew says protection is cheap.

3 · Technical check

Both technical reports lean bullish, and both lean quietly. The 3-day read (target August 19) calls for $116.20 within a $112.90–$117.70 band; the 5-day read (target August 21) calls for $116.25 within $113.30–$119.20. The strongest supporting evidence on either chart is an ADX of 51.1 with the positive directional line well above the negative one — an unusually strong trend reading for a stock that has been chopping sideways — offset by a fresh bearish MACD crossover that both write-ups flag as the clearest near-term warning. Support is named at $114.35, resistance at $116.50, with the dominant scenario invalidated on a close below $114.35.

Classification: the direction diverges from our neutral options read, but the magnitude sits comfortably inside the options-implied range — so this is a mild disagreement about lean, not about danger. The reference price the technical models used ($115.27) matches the official close exactly, so there is no data-date mismatch to discount.

Model vs. Market: The options market implies $108.21–$122.41 into August 21; the 5-day technical model targets $116.25 inside a $113.30–$119.20 band. The chart model is describing a quiet week of drift; the options market is pricing a Wednesday morning that the chart cannot see. If the report passes without a large gap, the technical range is almost certainly the better map — and the options premium collapses.

Practically, the technical read shaded one thing below: the bullish structure's short strike sits at $110 rather than $111, keeping the break-even under both the technical support shelf and the lower implied rail.

Full technical write-ups: 3-day report → · 5-day report →

4 · Three ways the next five days can go

If WMT pushes above $120: that is the whole chain's heaviest call strike, with 51,476 contracts open across expirations and 12,306 for August 21 alone. Heavy call open interest overhead tends to slow rallies as dealers hedge into strength. A clean break leaves comparatively thin near-money positioning until $125, where another 9,434 August 21 calls sit — but note the $118.32 200-day average and the $117.81 swing shelf both sit in the way first.

If WMT drifts between $110 and $120: this is the pin case, and it is where max pain at $118 becomes interesting — expiring open interest and the hedging around it can exert a mild pull toward that strike, which sits about 2.4% above Friday's close. This branch requires a muted reaction to Wednesday's report; if the stock opens inside the priced move, the front-week premium bleeds out fast and the $114.35–$118 band becomes the whole story.

If WMT breaks below $110: that strike carries 12,403 August 21 puts, and below it the near-money open interest thins out quickly until the $100 put wall — which is a hedging graveyard, not a working level. This is the acceleration branch: spot already sits unusually far below the estimated gamma-flip level for this name, the side where one rough estimate suggests market-maker hedging amplifies selling rather than cushioning it, and the August 21 expiration's own gamma estimate reads negative. A close below $112.73 is the early warning; $108.21 is the bottom of what the market has priced.

5 · Three defined-risk structures

Prices are end-of-day midpoints as of 2026-08-14. All structures are hypothetical. Verify live prices before trading — these will be stale by the open, and the August 20 report will reprice every one of them.

If you lean bullish: Aug 21 $110/$105 short put spread

• Trade: Sell the Aug 21 $110 put, buy the Aug 21 $105 put
• Credit: $0.70 · Max profit: $70 · Max loss: $430 · Break-even: $109.30
• Why it fits: You collect a credit and win if WMT simply stays above $110 — the heaviest near-money put strike for this expiration, with 12,403 contracts open, and roughly 4.6% below Friday's close. The break-even at $109.30 sits below both the technical support shelf and inside a whisker of the lower implied rail at $108.21.
• Makes sense only if: you believe the reaction to Wednesday's report stays inside the priced move, and you are comfortable with a 6:1 loss-to-gain ratio in exchange for a high-probability outcome.
• Invalidated if: WMT closes below $112.73.
• Earnings exposure: spans the August 20 report. The premium is inflated for exactly that reason, and the position can gap straight through both strikes overnight — a full max loss is a single-session event here, not a slow bleed.
• Managing it: decide before Tuesday's close whether you are holding through the print; there is no third option, since there is no expiration between now and the report. If you hold and the gap is favorable, close at ~50% of max credit on the open rather than waiting for Friday. Because the short-term trend read is the only horizon leaning bullish — the 20- and 50-day reads are flat — take profits early rather than pressing.
• Liquidity note: the $110 puts quote 7¢ wide (about 8% of mid) on 999 contracts traded; the $105 puts quote 2¢ wide on 1,452 traded against 27,357 open. Use limit orders on the short leg.
• Analyze this position →

If you expect the range to hold: Aug 21 $104/$108/$123/$127 iron condor

• Trade: Sell the $108 put and buy the $104 put; sell the $123 call and buy the $127 call, all Aug 21. (An iron condor is a short put spread plus a short call spread — you collect a credit and keep it if the stock finishes between the two short strikes.)
• Credit: $0.70 · Max profit: $70 · Max loss: $330 · Break-evens: $107.30 and $123.70
• Why it fits: both break-evens sit outside the ±6.16% the market has priced ($108.21–$122.41), so you are betting the report resolves inside the expected move — which, statistically, is what "expected move" means. The flat skew helps the call side: with 25-delta calls trading richer than puts, the upside wing is being sold into relative strength.
• Makes sense only if: you are explicitly selling an event you believe is overpriced. This is not a range trade; it is an earnings-reaction trade wearing a range trade's clothing.
• Invalidated if: WMT closes below $112.73 or above $120 — either move puts one wing under real pressure with days to run.
• Earnings exposure: spans the August 20 report on both sides. The credit is inflated for that reason, and a gap through either short strike leaves no time to adjust.
• Managing it: this one is essentially set-and-accept — with the report one session before expiration, there is no meaningful mid-trade adjustment. If the stock opens inside the wings Thursday, close the whole thing for whatever is left rather than holding for the last few cents into Friday's pin risk.
• Liquidity note: the four legs quote roughly 6¢, 3¢, 5¢ and 5¢ wide — about 19¢ of combined spread against a 70¢ credit. Crossing all four markets hands away over a quarter of the trade. Leg in on limits or skip it.
• Analyze this position →

If you lean bearish: Aug 21 $120/$125 short call spread

• Trade: Sell the Aug 21 $120 call, buy the Aug 21 $125 call
• Credit: $0.76 · Max profit: $76 · Max loss: $424 · Break-even: $120.76
• Why it fits: $120 is the whole chain's heaviest call strike and the first real overhead shelf, and the break-even at $120.76 sits above the 200-day average ($118.32), the swing resistance at $117.81, and max pain at $118 — three separate reasons a rally would need to work hard to get there. The $125 long wing caps the damage from a blowout reaction.
• Makes sense only if: you think the upside is capped by structure rather than that the stock is going down. This is a "not much higher" trade, not a bearish one.
• Invalidated if: WMT closes above $118 — through max pain and the 200-day average, the overhead map thins out fast.
• Earnings exposure: spans the August 20 report. A gap above $125 delivers the full $424 loss on the open with no chance to manage.
• Managing it: if the stock trades below $115 on Thursday's open, close for whatever remains — the remaining credit will be pennies and the tail risk is not worth carrying into Friday.
• Liquidity note: the tightest of the three. The $120 calls quote 7¢ wide (6.2% of mid) on 3,977 contracts and roughly $447,000 of premium traded; the $125 calls quote 4¢ wide on 1,932 contracts. Fills should be straightforward.
• Analyze this position →

If none of these: no trade

This is a genuinely reasonable week to do nothing, and the reason is structural rather than squeamish. Every expiration currently on the board sits on the far side of Wednesday morning's report — the August 14 contracts have already settled, so there is no clean pre-event tenor to sell into. The premium looks rich (about 9 vol points over delivered movement, richer than 78% of this stock's own recent readings), but that richness is the market pre-pricing a scheduled binary, not an inefficiency you are being handed. Selling it is a bet on the size of one gap, dressed up as a volatility trade. Meanwhile the directional read is a +1 out of ±100: our own arithmetic declines to pick a side. If you cannot articulate a view on the report specifically, standing aside until August 21 — when the front-week premium has collapsed and the September expirations reprice at honest levels — is the higher-quality decision.

6 · Quick FAQ

What is WMT's expected move this week? ±$7.10, or ±6.16%, into the August 21 expiration — a $108.21 to $122.41 range, per the options market's straddle pricing as of the August 14 close.

Is WMT expected to go up or down over the next five days? Options positioning as of August 14 leans neither way — the five-input composite scores +1 out of ±100, with a bullish leading-positioning tilt offset by put-heavy volume and flat wall positioning. That's a read of what traders have done, not a forecast. The actionable map is the $108.21–$122.41 range and the $110 / $120 levels around it.

Are WMT options expensive right now? IV rank 58/100 says option prices are higher than 58% of the past year's readings; on top of that, they're running about 9 vol points above the movement WMT has actually delivered — richer than roughly 78% of this stock's own recent readings. Normally that favors collecting premium, but here the richness is the August 20 report being priced in, so it is not free money.

When is WMT's next earnings report? Wednesday, August 20, before market open — after the (already settled) August 14 expiration and one session before August 21, which is why the August 21 options carry a 44.5% at-the-money IV against 28.0% for September 18.

What invalidates this week's read? A close below $112.73.

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Methodology & disclosures. Data: end-of-day options-chain snapshot for WMT, 2026-08-14, generated 2026-08-16T10:54:32.533Z. Prices shown are midpoints and will differ from live markets. Momentum/positioning scores and volatility-premium comparisons are descriptive measurements of past option flow and past price movement — not investment advice, signals, forecasts, or guarantees. Earnings dates and reported results are from the data provider's earnings feed as of 2026-08-16T10:54:32.533Z; report dates can change. All trade structures are hypothetical. Every structure shown has a defined maximum loss; you can lose the entire max-loss amount. Options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.